Dogecoin: ралли на 31% было спекулятивным

cryptonews.ru2023-07-13 tarihinde yayınlandı2025-05-13 tarihinde güncellendi

Цена Dogecoin подскочила на 31% за последнюю неделю на фоне оптимизма рынка. Это привлекло внимание инвесторов к DOGE

Маловероятно, что ралли DOGE будет устойчивым, учитывая его обстоятельства. Спекулятивный характер роста Dogecoin предупреждает о возможности коррекции.

Ралли Dogecoin показывает спекулятивные признаки

Текущий коэффициент Network Value to Transaction (NVT) для Dogecoin выше, чем во время буллрана в ноябре 2024 года. Эта метрика определяет недо-/переоцененность актива на текущих ценовых уровнях. Высокие значения являются медвежьим признаком. Они говорят о том, что рост цены не поддерживается ростом потока транзакций. Соответственно, это может указывать на перегретость актива и предупреждать об угрозе коррекции.

В случае с DOGE активность транзакций не сбалансирована с сетевой стоимостью. Такое ралли не будет устойчивым. Это отличает его от ралли в ноябре 2024 года, когда рост поддерживался сильными рыночными фундаментальными факторами. Последний же скачок не имеет необходимой основы.

Коэффициент NVT Dogecoin. Источник: Glassnode

В ноябре 2024 года скачок цены Dogecoin сопровождался значительным объемом транзакций ($10,27 млрд на пике). Однако на этой неделе, несмотря на аналогичный рост стоимости, объем транзакций с DOGE достиг лишь $1,2 млрд на пике. Это значит, что недавний рост был вызван спекулятивными настроениями и всплеском ажиотажа, а не сильным фундаментом и долгосрочным потенциалом роста.

Объем транзакций с Dogecoin. Источник: Santiment

Цене DOGE нужно укрепить поддержку

Популярный мемкоин вырос на 31% за последнюю неделю. На момент написания цена удерживается выше ключевого уровня поддержки $0,22. Однако спекулятивный характер ралли предполагает, что дальнейший рост маловероятен. Рыночные условия и отсутствие устойчивого спроса увеличивают вероятность разворота.

Учитывая эти факторы, Dogecoin уязвим к снижению. Если цена упадет ниже $0,22, она, вероятно, направится к $0,19 или $0,18, утратив психологическую поддержку на $0,20. Это подтвердит медвежий сценарий и ознаменует конец недавнего ралли.

Анализ цены DOGE. Источник: TradingView

Единственный способ опровергнуть медвежий сценарий — это отскок от уровня поддержки $0,22. Если токен поднимется выше $0,24, это может восстановить уверенность инвесторов. Однако сейчас рыночные сигналы указывают скорее на коррекцию цены, чем на дальнейший рост.

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