做市商的“死亡游戏”:GPS暴跌背后的市场操纵真相

marsbit2025-03-08 tarihinde yayınlandı2025-03-09 tarihinde güncellendi

GPS和Shell同时出现做市商问题的话,就不是一个特例,这显然是行业问题的冰山一角。

1. 要说做市商的问题,先得说做市商的运作机制。做市商的做市业务就是 给买卖双边 报价,维持市场的流动性和价格相对稳定。在传统市场里,这一部分,并没有太多油水,在加密市场里,也同样如此,所以需要交易所激励, 手续费以及项目方奖励来补贴(或配资配现货)正常Delta one做市交易亏钱非常正常。

国外商品市场 CME 或者 eurex 他们除了贴手续费之外,基本上也都有额外激励。不然做市商没得赚或者赚的少。

也就是说 “赚钱的做市机构”可能都是在做庄,很少是在做市。

但同样,市场也亟需 做市商,没有做市商 市场的滑点巨大,更没人交易,所以一般都是交易所或者标的方来补贴这部分流动性。

2. 做市商亏钱的核心原因:做市商赚的是差价,但非常惧怕价格单边暴跌。而当前的加密市场出现了一个共性,在TGE时,有大量直接解锁的卖盘,而散户普遍不再接盘。即上线后,卖盘抛压居多,与上线时项目方想拉高出货相悖。

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GPS和Shell出现的真实情况

1. 当市场上大部分人都在卖的时候,做市商作为Maker的买单会被不断成交(被迫低价买入),导致手里的标的物(库存)积压。如果价格持续下跌,标的物(库存)将会持续缩水。这属于做市商的unrealized loss

2. 做市商动态调整的难度

做市商可能调低收购价(比如从1刀快速降到0.8刀)但如果市场崩盘太快,根本来不及调整。在市场低迷的时候,做市商往往会更消极的挂 接标的物的 单子。而GPS的崩盘是从0.14快速崩盘到0.07,从结果上看,并不是一个良性的市场行为,做市商在接卖盘这里绝不可能盈利,unrealized loss陡增。市场当前的卖盘远低于自己接 标的物的平均成本价。

3. 那么做市商如果对买盘以及潜在卖盘没有预期会怎么做呢?如同之前Trump和milai发币一样,提供单边流动性,只放币,不放u。

即买入,流动性足够;大额卖出,流动性极差。而这里有一个小Tricks,项目方手里的代币是没有成本的,做市商的配资(配U)是实际成本。

所以这里,如果披露 @GSR_io 是出事项目的做市商的话,它是被 “主动做市商” 严重背刺的,它同样也是受害者。(注:往往加密项目的被动做市商会对标的物进行等额配资,相当于OTC买入了项目方代币)

4. 而做市商的成本在哪里呢?

做市业务的难度和专业性是极高的,交易所极度依赖外部做市商是一个事实。那么交易所如何约束做市商呢,往往做市商和交易所签约需要给一笔 保证金给到交易所,当出现做市问题时(如插针过大,天地针幅度过大),交易所将会扣取保证金,来补偿对应的投资受害者。

(注:山寨币的天地针显然是做市商没有做好流动性管理的体现)

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那为什么GPS这个项目,做市商依然作恶了呢?

市场已然进入到散户不再接盘新币的阶段,上线交易所后的卖盘显然大于买盘。传统的做市业务不能让 做市商 赚到钱,而如果去作恶套现(加单边流动性)可套现的金额显然大于 在交易所那里的保证金时,他们就会愿意去接受币安扣除保证金的惩罚,去大额套现。

(注:笔者私以为 有相当的盈利来源是 @GSR_io 的做市亏损

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在过去的加密市场,散户普遍认为上大交易所是有财富效应的,所以项目上币后根本不担心有没有足够多的买盘。

而现在,大部分散户都不再会在刚上线时追高,导致项目上所后,买盘预期远远下降。

而项目在上线交易所时的硬性成本是极高的。B某综合成本 可能有300万美金(每个Deal都不一样 不深究)某二线所综合成本为150万美金(每个Deal都不一样 不细聊)

而项目上线交易所时还有额外的隐性成本:

1. 对平台币的空投 拿的比例相当大,而大部分空投到质押者手里就会转化为卖盘,这部分钱就是做市商/项目方要硬去吃的。

2. marketing 找KOL 社区宣发的成本,也是实打实的,从几万u到一百万u不等

而这些项目在融战略轮之前,近乎拿不出这么多钱,而战略轮这里又成了一个核心问题。你上交易所需要拿 百万美金作为成本,你需要别的机构注资给你。在传统市场里,这很像过桥,区别在于,战略轮的机构并不会索要利息,而是要上线后代币收益的分成。(显然上线大所的潜在收益时可观的。

所以会倒逼 项目方 在上线后直接拉高市值,FDV甚至高于战略轮估值的5倍以上。而项目的基本面(链上数据 实际用户 社交媒体数据 marketing)在上线币安后,是缺少动力持续推行的。这里我也不再赘述,大部分区块链项目上币时的数据大多是虚假繁荣和撸毛工作室的结果。

这也会直接导致所有在高于估值几倍投资的散户面临极大的下跌风险。

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约束项目方保证金/上币费的初衷,当然是好的。可以筛选掉那些市场竞争力强,找资源能力差的项目方。

恶果在于,市场并不好的时候,项目方为了在上线时,只能推高币价/市值,透支项目成长性和营造泡沫,来赚取上币时的成本。正如 @Max_Sunxxx 所说,战略轮的融资,对于项目方来说,就是一个债务。

虚假繁荣和泡沫的结果,就是参与的机构在泡沫中巨赚,价值投资的散户持续背刺。在这样的一个山寨币市场环境下,我们无法期待任何传统资金进场买山寨的理由。私以为,也是这个web3行业最大的问题。

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