«Время работает против старых монет»: ван де Поппе о будущем альткоинов

cryptonews.ru2022-03-17 tarihinde yayınlandı2024-11-17 tarihinde güncellendi

Глава и основатель MN Consultancy Михаэль ван де Поппе (Michaël van de Poppe) выпустил новый видеообзор, посвященный ситуации с альткоинами и стратегиями поведения инвесторов в текущих условиях.

Михаэль ван де Поппе

Рекордные притоки в ETF

По оценке аналитика, с момента победы Дональда Трампа (Donald Trump) на выборах в биткоин влилось $4,5 млрд.

Движение средств в биткоин-ETF США. Источник: Farside Investors

Ethereum-ETF также показал впечатляющую динамику: если раньше дневной приток или отток средств не превышал $20 млн, то после победы Трампа дневной приток превысил $100 млн, а общая сумма достигла $750 млн. Впервые за долгое время общий баланс притока и оттока средств стал положительным.

Движение средств в Ethereum-ETF США. Источник: Farside Investors

Почему Ethereum теряет позиции

Ван де Поппе указывает на несколько причин. Во-первых, данные по инфляции в США превысили прогнозы — индекс цен производителей взлетел с 1,8% до 2,6%. В результате растет доходность гособлигаций, что снижает привлекательность инвестиций в Ethereum.

Федеральная резервная система, по мнению аналитика, вряд ли пойдет на агрессивное снижение ставок — до марта 2024 года ожидается максимум одно снижение на 25 базисных пунктов. Без смягчения монетарной политики доходности останутся высокими.

Вероятность изменения ставки ФРС. Источник: Fedwatch

Главное — терпение

Что делать инвесторам, чьи альткоины не растут, пока Sui и Pepe бьют рекорды? Ван де Поппе советует не поддаваться FOMO и не метаться между активами. По его наблюдениям, чем старше монета, тем скромнее ее потенциал. Он приводит показательную статистику: первый цикл принес биткоину рост на 5 млн процентов, а к 2021 году — всего 2 200%. Ethereum прошел похожий путь: от 272 000% в 2017 году до 5 000% в 2021-м.

Стратегия аналитика

Сам ван де Поппе делает ставку на новые высокорисковые активы в сферах DeFi и искусственного интеллекта. В качестве примера он приводит Omni Network с капитализацией менее $1 млрд. По его мнению, такие проекты имеют больший потенциал роста, чем уже «выстрелившие» монеты вроде Sui. Его инвестиционный горизонт составляет 6-12 месяцев, а целевая доходность — десятикратный рост.

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