SignalPlus宏观分析(20240919)：FOMC会议重点摘要—Confidently Dovish

Odaily星球日报2024-09-19 tarihinde yayınlandı2024-09-19 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

Powell主席以50个基点的降息满足了风险市场的期望，但对于这次选择较大幅度的降息，他同时也充满信心地强调经济软著陆仍然是基本情况，并多次重申美国经济表现“相当不错”...

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240919)：FOMC会议重点摘要—Confidently Dovish

Powell 主席以 50 个基点的降息满足了风险市场的期望，但对于这次选择较大幅度的降息，他同时也充满信心地强调经济软著陆仍然是基本情况，并多次重申美国经济表现“相当不错”。

重点摘要：

  • 随著通胀下降，软著陆仍然是基本预期。“美国经济状况良好，我们今天的决策是为了保持这样的局面。”“美国经济基本上没问题。”“我相信通胀会降至 2% 。”

  • 保持领先。Powell 承诺在利率调整上“保持领先”，以应对就业市场的放缓，并特别关注招聘率（50 个基点的降息是我们不落后于形势的承诺）。美联储将 2024 年的失业率预期上调至 4.4% （之前为 4.0% ）， 2025 年上调至 4.2% （之前为 4.0% ）， 2026 年则上调至 4.3% （之前为 4.1% ）。

  • 50 个基点的变动旨在传达“强有力的举措”。 Powell 承认 50 个基点的调整是较强力的举措，但他也表示未来不一定会以同样的步伐推进（“我们不应该假设这是新常态”），给美联储未来的会议留下回旋的空间。基本上，不要预期一直会是 50 个基点的调整，也不要预期 75 个基点的降息，但如果经济数据证明有必要，美联储也可能会进行多次 50 个基点的调整（“我们总是会在当下做我们认为对经济有利的事情，今天的决策也是如此。”）。

  • 关键在于硬数据。美联储将专注于硬经济数据而非软情绪数据，将特别关注市场对较低利率的反应。

  • 我们立场一致。 Powell 指出，所有 19 名成员都同意今年应多次降息，其中 17 名成员认为会进行 3 次完整降息， 2 名成员则认为将有 4 次，这与 6 月的情况有“显著不同”，唯一的异议者是 Bowman，他这次支持仅降息 25 个基点。

市场反应：

  • 利率： 市场仍然预计 2024 年会再有 2.5 次降息，略领先于美联储的点阵图中位数。债券收益率在 FOMC 会议后几乎没有变动，因为结果基本符合预期。

  • 外汇： 美联储的决策导致美元走弱，特别是考虑到日本央行在即将召开的会议上可能会保持鹰派立场，美元相对于日圆疲软。

  • 股票： 美联储实施“强有力”的宽松政策，并表示经济状况仍然良好且通胀预计会下降，促使股市上涨。

  • 加密货币： 受益于股市强势走高，BTC 回升至 60 k 美元，altcoins 也表现强劲，显示整体风险情绪有所提升。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240919)：FOMC会议重点摘要—Confidently Dovish

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240919)：FOMC会议重点摘要—Confidently Dovish

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240919)：FOMC会议重点摘要—Confidently Dovish

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240919)：FOMC会议重点摘要—Confidently Dovish

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240919)：FOMC会议重点摘要—Confidently Dovish

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