На Polymarket принимают ставки на побег Дурова из Франции

cryptonews.ru2024-05-30 tarihinde yayınlandı2024-08-30 tarihinde güncellendi

Не успел Павел Дуров выйти на свободу под залог, как пользователи платформы для ставок Polymarket начали заключать пари на его побег из Франции.

Клиенты Polymarket могут поставить на то, что Павел нарушит взятое на себя обязательство не покидать Францию и скроется за границей до 15 сентября. Вероятность этого исхода оценивается в 11%, поэтому успешное пари на это событие принесёт огромную прибыль в размере 801%.

Изменение вероятности побега Дурова из Франции

На побег Дурова уже поставили цифровые активы стоимостью $265 266, и, учитывая низкий шанс положительного расчёта этого события, становится очевидным, что подавляющая масса азартных членов криптосообщества зарядили на то, что Павел не покинет страну. Однако это убеждение зиждется не на вере в законопослушность Дурова, а на том факте, что у бизнесмена забрали паспорт, и без документа он якобы не сможет улететь на частном самолёте.

Также бытует мнение о том, что побег Павла нанесёт сильный удар по Telegram, так как навлечёт на мессенджер гнев регуляторов. Но эта точка зрения не подтверждается статистикой. По состоянию на февраль 2024 года Telegram пользовались около 41 млн жителей Евросоюза, а общее количество людей, запускавших мессенджер, достигало 900 млн. Соответственно, даже в случае запрета и успешной блокировки Telegram в ЕС клиентская база мессенджера снизится лишь на 4,6%.

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