Bitwise: Why Bitcoin Is Destined to Reach $1 Million?
In his article, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argues that Bitcoin is likely to reach $1 million per coin, a target he once considered unrealistic. He explains that the common mistake in evaluating Bitcoin’s potential is viewing the store-of-value market as static. Instead, he frames Bitcoin as a digital competitor to gold in the store-of-value market, which has grown significantly—from $2.5 trillion in 2004 to around $38 trillion today, with gold comprising $36 trillion and Bitcoin $1.4 trillion.
Hougan projects that, if the store-of-value market continues growing at a 13% annual rate, it could reach $121 trillion in 10 years. In that scenario, Bitcoin would only need to capture 17% of the market—up from its current <4%—to achieve a $1 million valuation. He cites growing institutional adoption, the success of Bitcoin ETFs, and decreased long-term volatility as factors supporting this growth. While acknowledging risks like a potential slowdown in market expansion or Bitcoin’s failure to gain share, Hougan believes current trends make a $1 million Bitcoin plausible within a decade.
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