投资中的稳打稳扎

币界网2024-08-15 tarihinde yayınlandı2024-08-15 tarihinde güncellendi

币界网报道:

在昨天那篇文章中我回忆了自己过往投资经历中的一些片段以及由这些片段串起来形成的一种投资方式。

这种投资方式实际上非常类似风投。

在这种方式中无论是我们的思维还是我们的操作,在风格上都是迎着风险而上的

我们面对的场景都是全新从未有过的;

我们要理解的事物是有违“常理”和“常识”的;

我们要买入的资产是没有经过足够长时间验证,并且无法用传统的营收模式来衡量的。

这些感悟我以前也有,但是最近这半年当我读了与巴菲特投资相关的书籍后感受更加强烈。

昨天在写文章的时候,我就想干脆趁这个机会也和大家分享一下我对巴菲特投资方式的一点浅薄理解,给大家提供一种不同的视野和思维。

巴菲特的投资方式与上面这种截然不同,甚至可以说是南辕北辙。

如果直接和上面这种投资方式进行对比,

我觉得巴菲特/芒格的投资方式可以描述为:无论在思维上还是在操作上都要躲开风险

我们要面对的场景是全新从未有过的,巴菲特选取的场景全都是已有的

对未知场景,我在他的公开表述或文字中看到提及时所用的形容都是谨慎、甚至负面的。

我们要理解的事物是有违“常理”和“常识”的;巴菲特理解的事物不仅不能违背“常理”和“常识”,而且还要是他自认为能够比常人理解得更深、更好的

对有违“常理”和“常识”的东西,巴菲特/芒格的处理方式非常简单:直接置之不理。

我们要买入的资产是没有经过足够长时间验证,并且无法用传统的营收模式来衡量的;而巴菲特买入的资产不仅要经过足够长时间的验证,而且最好能估计其在未来15年、20年乃至更长时间内的现金收益,它一定要能用传统的营收模式清晰地衡量

在选取投资标的时,以我们的投资方式,很多时候我们倾向选取业务模式新、甚至从未有过但“想象空间”巨大的标的;但巴菲特会选取业务模式非常成熟,并且他理解得非常深刻的标的

巴菲特/芒格平常最主要的工作就是读公司年报和财经资讯,以此来掌握各个行业的情况以及各个行业中各个公司的情况,从而了解一个行业、一个公司的盈利模式,并尝试理解一个公司未来15年、20年乃至更长时间是否还有持续营收的能力以及这种能力是否具有门槛,让一家公司在一个行业中立于不败之地。

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当他收购一个公司或者购买一个公司的股票时,往往在此前的十多年甚至更久他就已经通过大量的阅读和学习对这个公司所处的行业甚至这个公司有了非常深的理解。在这十多年,他一直在耐心等待那个符合他心目中标准的公司出现或者等待那个目标公司的股价达到他购买的标准。

而一旦买入一家公司的股票,除非公司的运营、模式、风险、门槛等出现了变故,或者他发现了好得多的其它投资标的,否则他不会轻易出售持有的股票。

如果我们回看他过往出售股票的操作,会发现他的那些操作事后都被证明是明智的。

如果是因为公司出现问题导致他出售,那是因为他已经对这个公司的行业、这家公司了解得滚瓜烂熟,公司的某些细微变动都能让他提前看到别人看不到的风险和问题,使他能在风险以及问题爆发前就离场。

如果是因为他发现了其它更好的标的导致他出售现有的股票,那后面的状况也证明确实他新买入的其它股票要比出售的股票更合适。

所以整体看,巴菲特的投资方式是稳打稳扎似的投资。

这种方式对人的思维挑战或者常识挑战没有那么大,但需要投资者在了解行业和公司方面下异于常人的苦功夫--------像巴菲特/芒格那样常年大量阅读枯燥的财报、行业分析以积累对行业和公司超出常人的理解和敏感。

当我对比这两种不同的投资方式时,除了好奇投资领域的神奇(南辕北辙的投资方式都能找到自己的适用场景)之外,也感受到了思维上的剧烈冲击。

我经常听到一些投资人说自己既要做风投也要像巴菲特那样做二级市场的投资。如果真的能把这两种方式都驾驭得游刃有余,那简直就像《神雕侠侣》中老顽童的左右手互搏,能够天下无敌了。

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