VC与项目方的博弈：融资、估值与币圈的变迁

币界网2024-08-08 tarihinde yayınlandı2024-08-08 tarihinde güncellendi

币界网报道：

作者：Ryanqyz 来源：X，@Ryanqyz_hodl

关于VC：

- 上个周期节奏正常的VC都赚钱了

- 这些VC本周期都3-10倍扩大了基金规模再次融资，导致手上钱太多

- 但好项目又不够多，但又必须花出去，所以稍有姿色的项目都会增加轮次融资抬高估值，拿到自己并不需要的钱

- 三年前已经做死了的老项目，也能出来蹦哒拿到新一轮VC融资

- 这也大幅提高了好项目的VC成本和币民心理预期

- VC也不傻，项目方也不傻，本质变成了割LP的游戏 - 其他项目投完发不出币，开会时面面相觑，互相尴尬

- 好不容易有一个好项目发币了，赶紧重点PR，6个月或12个月后只能解锁即卖币，之前没解锁也得想办法先卖币/套保

- 总之，VC不赚钱，LP最惨

关于新项目：

- 因为成熟founder做小项目或大项目投入的时间是一样的，卖币也是一样卖，所以他们只会做大项目

- 大项目 = 高估值 = infra

- infra扎堆出现，但是上面又没有应用/真收入，所以只能自己补贴/刷量

- 自己的钱哪儿来？VC那来，反正是免费的

- 因为已经明白了上币开盘Playbook，明确目标开盘卖币，所以都会高估值开盘，然后卖出最少的币，换来最多的钱，然后市场买盘枯竭，但还是要卖币，不卖币是不可能的

- 一个币开盘第一波买盘结束后只能跌，结束的时间一般是1-3天，基本撑不过三天

- 之后制造波动，继续卖币

- 如果市场好，偶尔上一上涨幅榜，然后继续卖币

- 总之，做项目的第一性原理是卖币；极少部分项目创造价值（或者靠耍赖）靠协议收入

- 部分刷量项目，撸毛也都是假用户项目，上线即等于归零，没有任何交易量，对于这样的项目，市值毫无意义

关于老项目：

- 死透的项目用三年前投的相对优质Captable再次融资（其实和那些基金都没联系了），大部分用KOL round，少部分找基金接盘

- 为了上bn，继续融资刷数据，但还是没真用户，也没有真用例

- 其实也上不去bn，所以两条路，贿赂其他交易所/dex上币

- dex上币=归零，贿赂交易所=归零（贿赂的钱得卖币赚回来）

- 总之，这类型项目只能归零，因为他们大概率不会好好做了

关于头部交易所：

- 交易所对项目方提供的服务的等于链上的池子

- 给一个币加池子，对项目肯定是好事儿

- 所以项目肯定要给交易所钱，这是无可厚非的，符合商业常识

- 交易所有需要取悦的对象，也就是大户

- 符合大户利益的项目，需要上，所以LRT都得上

- 符合自己利益的项目，需要上，所以投了的得上，有用户的得上，新东西得上，能竞争别的交易所的得上

- 因为流动性就是王，所以上交易所成为了做项目最重要的一环

- 交易所起到了用户教育、流动性提供的重要作用，应该获得重要的地位和匹配的利润

- 那你的本金他就默默收下了：）

综上，做项目变成了创造一个虚幻的东西，不用做东西了，只要能卖币就行，因为本质就是制造乌合之众，然后卖币

既然这样，VC币和meme币就没有区别了

关于eth：

- 大户改变思路，变成pos，反正不是pow，也不是炒币思路，更不是入金买单思路，就是白嫖思路。

- 大户不参与真正的建设，指对eth币价有直接正面影响的建设，包括但不限于，做memecoin，拉盘优质memecoin，创造独特的eth邪教文化等。总之，他们不作为

- ETH本周期唯二的买入理由就是再质押还有ETF，但是这个跟散户又没什么关系，所以ETH本质上没有好的强有力的，一下就能说明白的买入理由。

- ETH依然有最多的开发者，最多的节点，最多的生态项目。依然是最健壮的区块链。

- 但是ETH上的这些项目都心怀鬼胎，想把自己的空气币卖到散户头上，只让他们自己赚钱。

- 总之，ETH上散户不好赚钱。

关于SOL：

- 大户抱团，大户格局大，大户了解散户在想什么

- 大户的量级是40w-2mil个sol，他们花1wsol做个所谓的邪教memecoin或者找认识的人做个memecoin，简直不要太轻松

- 抱团拉盘meme，做一大堆小池子的memecoin，送到100-500mil

- 散户看到这么多memecoin眼花缭乱并且疯狂fomo

- KOL通过喊单赚取注意力，并且完成财富转移，而且这些币还真涨

- KOL形成梯度和喊单区间，Hsaka，Ansem等顶流一档，一些100k followers一档，其他的一档（这些主要是KOC），分别喊不同市值范围的币，大概是500mil+，100-500mil，还有10-100mil，以及10mil以下的彩票选手。

- 这样增加了sol的生态系统活力，并且让散户给他们的SOL抬轿子

- 因为散户都持有SOL，所以自然形成了SOL maxi军团，而且SOL flip ETH情绪在散户中甚嚣尘上，这些人获得了memecoin的快感，忘记了SOL的回滚风险，以及他们手里的memecoin本质是空气

- SOL进入正反馈循环阶段，main character喊单，散户继续fomo，继续喊单继续fomo

- 什么时候结束？不知道。当大家对memecoin反感的时候结束吧。

- 总之，SOL成为本周期最好的赌场，最好的赌场筹码，所有人都需要SOL

判断：

- memecoin supercycle成立，前百市值币出现20个memecoin，大量memecoin在100-300mil之间，主要在sol上。

- 出现成功memecoin focus CEX

- 项目继续高市值开盘，但是开盘估值会显著下调，PR稿说项目方估值合理化大批出现（有项目方已经这样做了，从线上看结果不错，格局大，爱惜羽毛）

- VC下一轮只能找web2融钱了，他们对行业很眼红，但与LP汇报会很痛苦

- 不向VC过度融资（甚至完全不融资）的高质量真用例项目开始出现，使用其他更加decent的方式进行利益输送

- 真正创造价值的审计/安全公司慢慢开始受到重视，优质审计成为行业的重要部分：BlockSec、Hexagate、Hypernative

- 对于非meme项目，市场回归对有真实收入，真实垄断性，真实用例的项目的青睐（希望他们会有创新性的将代币和业务关联起来的方式）

- 下一轮是真实应用周期

致我的读者：

- 买btc，放冷钱包，大爷大妈都来的时候卖一部分，爸妈骂你傻的时候买一部分，其他一直拿着，不要告诉任何人

- 想办法从VC/项目方手里拿钱：做项目/给项目做服务

- 想办法从其他散户手里拿钱：给散户做服务

- 不购买VC币，尤其是高市值VC币（结局：跑不赢btc）

- 尝试购买10mil-100mil的SOL memecoin，并在其100-500mil的阶段卖出

- 不参与老项目，上个周期没发出币，是有他的原因的

- 验证所有你看见后想认真了解的信息，如果不能验证，默认是假的

- 识别价值内容账号，给他们更多互动（<1%账号还在做这样的事)

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