Эксперт: текущая просадка биткоина соответствует началу «бычьего» цикла в 2016 году

cryptonews.ru2022-06-06 tarihinde yayınlandı2024-08-06 tarihinde güncellendi

  • Аналитик Питер Брандт прокомментировал спад на крипторынке.
  • Он привел в качестве примера цикл 2015-2017 годов.
  • По мнению эксперта, он похож с текущим.

Известный трейдер и аналитик Питер Брандт сравнил текущую фазу биткоин-рынка с циклом в период с 2015 по 2017 год. По его мнению, просадка от 4-5 августа соответствует аналогичной тенденции перед началом «бычьего» роста.

Please note that $BTC decline since halving is now similar to that of the 2015-2017 Halving Bull market cycle pic.twitter.com/cIm3WKzBog

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) August 5, 2024

Брандт подкрепил свой прогноз рыночными данными. Эксперт проанализировал ряд показателей, включая следующие:

  • уровень, на котором закрылись торги через неделю после халвинга;
  • локальные минимумы в разные циклы;
  • процент просадки после халвинга;
  • уровни поддержки перед началом роста;
  • время до максимума в следующем цикле.

Второй халвинг в сети биткоина произошел в июле 2016 года. Непосредственно перед ним, в июне, курс актива был на уровне $770, согласно CoinMarketCap. Через неделю после халвинга цена упала до $650, а промежуточный минимум составил $474.

Просадка достигла 27%. После этого курс восстановился до барьера в $790 к концу 2016 года. Затем начался «бычий» цикл, который продлился год. К тому моменту стоимость актива превысила $16 000.

Брандт видит определенные параллели между этой фазой и текущей. Напомним, четвертый халвинг прошел 20 апреля 2024 года. Подробнее о нем:

Через неделю после него стоимость биткоина составила $64 962. В ходе глобального спада на крипторынке 4-5 августа курс актива достиг отметки в $49 050. Просадка составила 26%. Уровень барьера, в свою очередь, — $73 804.

В цикле 2015-2017 годов биткоину потребовалось 24 недели, чтобы пробить его и обновить максимум. В этом цикле прошло уже 16 недель по состоянию на 5 августа 2024 года.

На момент написания биткоин торгуется по $58 888. Как видно, актив частично восстановился после падения.

Курс BTC/USDT на бирже Binance. Источник: TradingView.

Подробнее о том, почему это произошло, читайте в нашем материале с мнениями экспертов:

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