Despite Recent Bitcoin Rise, One Analyst Remains Cautious: 'I Haven't Seen What I Wanted Yet'
Despite Bitcoin's recent rally reigniting bullish sentiment, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson advises caution based on blockchain data analysis. He highlights the MVRV Z-Score indicator, used to measure investor behavior and market value cycles, suggesting Bitcoin's cycle low may not be in yet. Drawing parallels to the 2017-2018 cycle, Wedson notes that after its 2017 peak, Bitcoin experienced another sharp drop in November 2018. Similarly, in the current 2024-2025 period, the MVRV Z-Score has formed three peaks but has recently risen again alongside price. The key risk, according to Wedson, is that the indicator has not yet entered negative territory, historically associated with major cycle bottoms. He states that purely from on-chain data, there isn't enough evidence to confirm the recent low as the final bottom. If historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin could potentially fall to at least $53,000 or lower. Wedson clarifies this is data analysis, not financial advice, and emphasizes that on-chain metrics currently indicate downside risks remain, rather than conclusively signaling a market bottom.
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