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L1 Value Capture Shrinks Significantly, ETH, SOL, HYPE Struggle to Return to Price Peaks

The article "L1 Value Capture Shrinks Significantly: ETH, SOL, HYPE Struggle to Return to Price Peaks" argues that Layer-1 blockchains face a structural, not cyclical, problem: their ability to capture value through transaction fees is systematically eroded by innovation. Historically, periods of high demand (e.g., Bitcoin congestion, Ethereum's DeFi Summer, Solana's memecoin frenzy) create fee revenue peaks. However, these peaks inevitably stimulate the creation of cheaper alternatives that siphon away this income. The core finding is that open, permissionless networks cannot sustain high fee revenues; profitability is consistently competed away. **Key Examples:** * **Bitcoin:** Fee spikes from congestion (2017, 2021) were quickly mitigated by innovations like SegWit, batching, the Lightning Network, and wrapped BTC. The 2024-2025 bull run saw minimal fee growth despite a 3x price increase, with ETFs providing massive BTC exposure without on-chain fees. * **Ethereum:** The 2020-2021 fee boom from DeFi and NFTs was dismantled by competing L1s and, crucially, its own L2 scaling solutions. The Dencun upgrade (EIP-4844) drastically reduced data costs for L2s, causing Ethereum's L1 fee revenue to collapse by over 95% from its peak. * **Solana:** Its revenue relies heavily on MEV/tips from volatile memecoin trading. This income is now being compressed by private AMMs (which hide liquidity to prevent MEV) and platforms like Hyperliquid, which are moving the most profitable price discovery activity off-chain. **Impact on Token Valuation:** The market is shifting from valuing L1s based on "on-chain profit" to "asset narratives" and "structural capital flows." The analysis suggests: * **ETH:** Now resembles a low-yield infrastructure asset. Its fee compression is structural and ongoing. * **SOL:** While network activity may hit new highs, its matured fee-capturing mechanisms mean MEV revenue is unlikely to return to previous peaks, making a new all-time high price difficult. * **HYPE (Hyperliquid):** Currently benefits from high fees on its perp DEX. However, its fee model is under immense pressure to compress towards traditional finance (TradFi) rates (e.g., CME), threatening its projected high earnings and potentially its token price. * **BTC:** Its security model is unique and inverted. It relies almost entirely on block subsidies, not fees. Miner survival post-halving depends entirely on the USD price of BTC doubling to offset the 50% reduction in BTC-denominated rewards, making long-term security precariously tied to perpetual price appreciation.

marsbit8 dk önce

L1 Value Capture Shrinks Significantly, ETH, SOL, HYPE Struggle to Return to Price Peaks

This analysis examines the structural decline in fee-based revenue capture by Layer 1 (L1) blockchains, arguing that high transaction fees are systematically eroded by innovation, making them unsustainable as a primary valuation driver. Bitcoin’s fee spikes during congestion periods (e.g., 2017 and 2021 rallies) were rapidly mitigated by scaling solutions like SegWit, batching, and the Lightning Network. By 2025, daily fees fell to just $300k, under 1% of miner revenue, despite higher USD transaction volumes. Ordinals and Runes provided brief fee surges but were short-lived. Ethereum’s DeFi and NFT booms drove quarterly fees to $4.3 billion in late 2021. However, competing L1s and L2 rollups (e.g., Arbitrum, Optimism) diverted activity. The Dencun upgrade (EIP-4844) drastically reduced data costs for L2s, causing Ethereum’s L1 fee revenue to collapse by over 90% from its peak, falling below $15 million per quarter by late 2025. Solana’s revenue relies heavily on MEV and priority fees from memecoin trading, which peaked in early 2025. However, private AMMs (e.g., HumidiFi) and off-chain order flow (e.g., Hyperliquid’s HyperCore) have captured over 50% of DEX volume, reducing Solana’s MEV fees by more than 90% from their January 2025 highs. Hyperliquid currently dominates perps trading, earning $600 million in 2025, but its fee model (4.5 bps per trade) is vastly more expensive than traditional finance (e.g., CME). As institutional adoption grows, pressure to compress fees will intensify, challenging its token valuation. The report concludes that L1 tokens are increasingly weak as fee-capturing assets. Valuation drivers have shifted toward staking yields, ETF flows, RWA narratives, and macro liquidity—factors more tied to speculative demand than fundamental utility. Bitcoin remains an exception: its security depends not on fees but on continuous price appreciation to offset halvings, making its model uniquely fragile and narrative-dependent.

Odaily星球日报15 dk önce

From Crypto Partners To Alleged Poisoner: A South Korean Business Gone Wrong

bitcoinist22 dk önce

World Liberty Financial Proposes 180-Day WLFI Staking for Voting

World Liberty Financial (WLFI) has proposed a new governance model requiring holders to stake their unlocked tokens for a minimum of 180 days to participate in voting. The system aims to encourage long-term holding and deeper community involvement. Locked token holders can vote without staking. Voting power is calculated using a square-root model based on stake size and remaining lock-up time to prevent dominance by large holders. Participants in at least two votes during the lock period receive a 2% annualized reward from the treasury. The proposal also introduces tiered roles: "Nodes" (staking ~$1M worth of WLFI) gain access to licensed market makers, while "Super Nodes" (staking over 50M WLFI) receive additional partnership opportunities and potential economic incentives.

TheNewsCrypto38 dk önce

Huobi Growth Academy | Crypto Market Macro Report: Repricing of Crypto Assets Amid Receding Liquidity

In Q1 2026, the cryptocurrency market experienced a historic deleveraging crash, with Bitcoin falling over 40% from its peak and Ethereum and altcoins declining even more sharply. The collapse was driven by a confluence of three major liquidity-tightening factors: the unwinding of yen carry trades, the U.S. Treasury's TGA account rebuild draining market liquidity, and systemic increases in derivatives margin requirements. These factors, combined with the crypto market’s inherent high leverage and overvaluation, triggered a cascading sell-off. The report highlights that U.S. stock market’s extreme valuations acted as a ceiling for risk assets, including crypto. The reversal of yen carry trades—where investors borrowed cheap yen to invest in higher-yielding assets like crypto—accelerated as the Bank of Japan signaled a potential end to ultra-loose policies. Simultaneously, the U.S. Treasury’s replenishment of its TGA account and increased bond issuance withdrew nearly $200 billion in liquidity from financial markets. Additionally, rising margin requirements on derivatives exchanges forced further deleveraging, exacerbating the downturn. Crypto’s structural vulnerabilities—such as high leverage, stagnant stablecoin inflows, and declining on-chain activity—amplified the sell-off. Looking ahead, crypto markets are entering a macro-driven phase where liquidity indicators—such as Fed policy, TGA balances, yen-USD exchange rates, and stablecoin flows—will be critical. The market is expected to remain under pressure until macro liquidity conditions improve, likely in the second half of 2026. The era of excess-liquidity-driven growth is over; crypto assets will now be repriced under a new macro-normal regime.

marsbit43 dk önce