加密投资J曲线法则:在热情消退时实现最大收益

Odaily星球日报2024-06-17 tarihinde yayınlandı2024-06-17 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

如果您不是一名经验丰富的狙击手,那么这篇短文就是为您准备的。

原文作者:IT4Iᵍᵐ

原文编译:深潮 TechFlow

加密货币 J 曲线,也许这是我们市场交易者需要学习的最重要的方法之一。

如果您不是一名经验丰富的狙击手,喜欢在安全的情况下才购买加密货币,或者只是一名试图理清头绪的情绪化交易者,那么这篇短文就是为您准备的。

加密投资J曲线法则:在热情消退时实现最大收益

第一阶段

主要参与者是拥有技术优势的狙击手、拥有不公平优势的内部人士/预售商,以及重数量轻基本面的投机者。

在大多数情况下,普通交易者会在这里失败,当投机者转向新的闪亮事物时,它的下跌速度和上涨速度一样快。

加密投资J曲线法则:在热情消退时实现最大收益

第二阶段

热情消退,投机者出局,成交量萎缩,持有者的平均 uPNL 低于利润,印度人通过营销建议突袭 TG,Kols 骗子慢慢淡出 TL。

这是最重要的阶段,因为它带来了最大的机会。

加密投资J曲线法则:在热情消退时实现最大收益

第二阶段是 "猫变虎 "的阶段,要实现这一目标,必须评估项目是否已经死亡,或者神圣的 J 曲线是否正在加载。

需要关注的重要指标

-团队钱包:

捆绑销售?

顶级钱包是否在销售?

税收(如果有的话)是否被转移到 Cex 或在链上保留/使用?

-社会形象:

微博/Tg 的处理是否谨慎和一致?

社交指标是增长还是下降?

-路线图的执行:

团队在第一阶段提到的承诺是否得到执行?

-新买家:

知名钱包是否购买?

新钱包是否购买?

休眠钱包是否购买?

还有更多其他指标,但我认为这些是考察潜在第二阶段购买风险/回报的最重要指标。

加密投资J曲线法则:在热情消退时实现最大收益

在过去几个月中,J 曲线的例子数不胜数,以下是我偷懒收集的一些例子;

加密投资J曲线法则:在热情消退时实现最大收益加密投资J曲线法则:在热情消退时实现最大收益

加密投资J曲线法则:在热情消退时实现最大收益加密投资J曲线法则:在热情消退时实现最大收益

第三阶段

产品初见成效,对于实用性而言--技术的实际使用产生了真正的收入,而对于 meme 而言--崇拜者声势浩大,KOL 们大肆宣扬等。

这是你卖出的地方,因为风险很高,应确保利润,重点应放在 J 曲线的第二阶段。

总之,研究 J 曲线会给没有任何优势的人带来机会(我在第 2 阶段的大部分买入都是通过 Uniswap 以较低的 gas 进行的)。

第 2 阶段的狩猎可以帮助我们对抗 fomo,并避免我们成为狙击手和大玩家抛售时的接盘者。

希望你能学到新东西,再见。

加密投资J曲线法则:在热情消退时实现最大收益

原文链接

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