SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240423)：美股反弹，金价暴跌

Odaily星球日报2024-04-23 tarihinde yayınlandı2024-04-23 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

在过去一日里，BTC币价由66000万美元突破至67000之后发生回调，重新来到66000附近。期权方面，隐含波动率明显走陡下行，BTC 的大宗上同时有在 4 月底买 Vol 和在 5 月底卖 Vol 的两组方向相反的 Iron Condor 成交。

昨日（22 APR）美国股市风险情绪小幅反弹，SP 500 六连跌被终结，市场在周五 PCE 指数、繁忙的财报周以及即将到来的 FOMC 会议之前得到喘息的机会。另一方面，近期糟糕的通胀数据推迟了市场对美联储转向宽松政策的预期，美债收益率依然在高位震荡，同时也迫使全球投资者重新考虑他们预期的全球宽松周期，一些投资者开始怀疑欧洲央行降息的决心，货币市场不再完全消化到 12 月欧洲央行将降息三次的预期，其中摩根斯坦利分析师在报告中指出，“相对于之前更为激进的降息路径，由汇率引发的通胀让我们有理由对欧洲央行的降息行动感到担忧。”

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240423)：美股反弹，金价暴跌

Source: TradingView, SP 500

由地缘冲突带来的金价溢价逐步从市场消退，现货黄金创下两年来最大单日跌幅，并在今日延续跌势。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240423)：美股反弹，金价暴跌

Source: TradingView, XAUUSD

数字货币方面，ETF 保持正向流入，其中 FBTC 流入量连续三日超过老大哥 IBTC，GBTC 的流出量也在缩减。另外据脸上数据分析公司 Artemix 报道， 2024 年至今稳定币净流入已经持续 15/16 周，上周稳定币净流入达 34 亿美元，是 2024 年第三高水平。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240423)：美股反弹，金价暴跌

Source: Farside Investors；Twitter

在过去一日里，BTC 币价由 66000 万美元突破至 67000 之后发生回调，重新来到 66000 附近。

期权方面，隐含波动率明显走陡下行，BTC 的大宗上同时有在 4 月底买 Vol 和在 5 月底卖 Vol 的两组方向相反的 Iron Condor 成交；另外注意到 BTC 6 月底的看涨期权遭到大量抛售，主要是受到大宗平台两笔三角价差的影响，在卖出 28 JUN 75000 & 80000 Call 的同时分别买了 27 DEC 80000-C 和 27 SEP 90000-C，可能有包含美国大选带来的不确定性。

ETH 上成交相对集中，大户在四月底买了海量的 3100 Put 为即将到来的月度结算做出保护，散户则是趁 IV 还没完全回落，在五月 3 号和 31 号抛售 OTM Put 赚取权利金。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240423)：美股反弹，金价暴跌

Source: Deribit （截至 23 A PR 16: 00 UTC+ 8）

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240423)：美股反弹，金价暴跌

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240423)：美股反弹，金价暴跌

Data Source: Deribit，ETH 交易分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240423)：美股反弹，金价暴跌

Data Source: Deribit，BTC 交易分布，六月底的 Call 被大量抛售

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240423)：美股反弹，金价暴跌

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240423)：美股反弹，金价暴跌

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240423)：美股反弹，金价暴跌

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