SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240328)：重整旗鼓，继续向上

Odaily星球日报2024-03-28 tarihinde yayınlandı2024-03-28 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

数字货币在美股开盘后不久后出现一次波动，BTC价格一度触碰到72000美元关口后迅速下跌至68500附近，造成此次波动行情的原因可能包括美国地区法官裁定SEC针对Coinbase的诉讼准以继续。

昨日（27 MAR）美联储沃勒在盘后发表鹰派讲话，表示目前没有迫切需要降息的迹象，维持当前利率水准的时间可能比预期较长，今年降息的次数或减少，同时他也称希望看到至少几个月的通胀数据好转然后再降息，今晚的核心 PCE 数据将成为本次讲话后的第一份重要通胀数据，且看其环比是否能如市场预期一般放缓至 0.3% 以下，展现出一个良好的转变。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240328)：重整旗鼓，继续向上

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240328)：重整旗鼓，继续向上

Source: SignalPlus & TradingView

数字货币在美股开盘后不久后出现一次波动，BTC 价格一度触碰到 72000 美元关口后迅速下跌至 68500 附近，造成此次波动行情的原因可能包括美国地区法官裁定 SEC 针对 Coinbase 的诉讼准以继续，使其股价下跌并同时给 BTC 价格带来压力。但随后价格稳步反弹收复全部失地，重新来到 70000 美元上方，提振了市场的信心，从期权数据上可以看到，尽管 Vol Surface 没有发生明显的变动，但 BTC 和 ETH 的交易记录中大都呈现出方向性统一的 Long Call/Call Spread 以及 Short Put/Put Spread 策略，如 BTC 26 APR 24 70000/85000 Call Spread（850 BTC per leg）以及 Sell ETH 26 APR 24 2800 Put（11237 ETH from Deribit）

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240328)：重整旗鼓，继续向上

Source: Deribit （截至 28 MAR 16: 00 UTC+ 8）

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240328)：重整旗鼓，继续向上

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240328)：重整旗鼓，继续向上

Data Source: Deribit，ETH 交易分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240328)：重整旗鼓，继续向上

Data Source: Deribit，BTC 交易分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240328)：重整旗鼓，继续向上

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240328)：重整旗鼓，继续向上

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240328)：重整旗鼓，继续向上

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：xdengalin）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

İlgili Okumalar

With Labour Changing Leaders, Is the Long-Suppressed UK Crypto Market About to Turn Around?

Labour leader change: Hope for UK crypto market? With Keir Starmer's resignation as Prime Minister and Labour leader, a leadership contest has begun. Andy Burnham, the former Mayor of Greater Manchester and now the overwhelming favourite to succeed, has sparked cautious optimism within the UK cryptocurrency industry. Industry figures hope Burnham, seen as more receptive to digital assets than much of the Labour establishment, could shift the party's traditionally harder line. The leadership transition is expected to be swift, with prediction markets like Polymarket assigning a 97% probability to Burnham becoming the next Prime Minister. However, this political shift comes as a comprehensive regulatory framework for crypto, established by law earlier this year, is in its final implementation phase. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is finalizing detailed rules covering trading, custody, stablecoins, and market abuse, with the full regime set to go live in October 2027. While a new Prime Minister can reshuffle ministers and adjust policy priorities, the core regulatory architecture is now law and unlikely to be fundamentally overturned without significant, deliberate government intervention. The main industry hope is that a Burnham government, focusing on economic growth, will ensure the FCA's implementation is pragmatic and growth-oriented. Industry advocates seek proportionate capital requirements, a streamlined licensing process, and clear rules for staking and stablecoins. They argue that embracing the crypto sector could attract investment and listings to London's struggling markets. Despite the optimism, concerns remain that regulatory implementation may still be influenced by more sceptical factions within the Labour party.

Foresight News26 dk önce

With Labour Changing Leaders, Is the Long-Suppressed UK Crypto Market About to Turn Around?

Foresight News26 dk önce

The US Dollar Challenges Japan's Intervention Threshold: Will the Carry Trade Collapse Again?

The U.S. dollar remains strong, with the Dollar Index holding above 101 as Federal Reserve policy expectations turn more hawkish. The 2-year Treasury yield is near highs from early 2025, boosting the dollar's appeal against currencies like the euro and pound. The USD/JPY pair is approaching a critical level near 161.96, which would mark the yen's weakest point since December 1986. This pressure stems from the widening interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. Japanese authorities have issued verbal warnings about potential intervention to support the yen, but uncertainty remains over if and when action will be taken. Oil prices rebounded after a recent drop, introducing renewed inflation concerns. While not the main driver, higher oil prices could further fuel expectations that the Fed will maintain a restrictive policy. Market focus centers on three key issues: whether the Fed will follow through on rate hike expectations, the possibility of Japanese FX intervention, and the trajectory of oil prices. The resolution of these factors will determine whether the current strong dollar trend persists or gives way to increased volatility.

marsbit31 dk önce

The US Dollar Challenges Japan's Intervention Threshold: Will the Carry Trade Collapse Again?

marsbit31 dk önce

A 60-Day Window Depresses Oil Prices, So Why Is the Market Falling Instead?

International oil prices continued to decline on June 23, extending significant losses from the previous session. The market shifted focus from Middle East military risks to actual supply changes following a temporary U.S.-Iran arrangement. The immediate trigger was the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping chokepoint, with two tankers passing through, signaling eased near-term supply disruption fears. Prices retreated as the "worst-case scenario" was temporarily averted. A reported 60-day window in a U.S.-Iran understanding allows Iran to sell oil during this period, further dampening supply concerns. However, this arrangement is temporary, linked to nuclear talks, and does not guarantee a long-term solution. Market sentiment remains cautious because the deal could still unravel, potentially reinstating sanctions or disrupting shipping. While these developments have lowered immediate risk premiums, prices have not fully returned to pre-conflict levels. Geopolitical news, particularly regarding the stability of the Strait of Hormuz or the progress of negotiations, could quickly reverse the price drop. Additionally, low U.S. strategic petroleum reserves limit the emergency buffer available if supply shocks reemerge. Therefore, the current price decline reflects a reduction in near-term panic, not a complete elimination of Middle East supply risks.

marsbit42 dk önce

A 60-Day Window Depresses Oil Prices, So Why Is the Market Falling Instead?

marsbit42 dk önce

SK Hynix Market Cap Exceeds Samsung for First Time in 26 Years, Korean Broker Calls for 50% More Upside

SK Hynix's market capitalization surpassed Samsung Electronics for the first time in 26 years on June 22, reaching 208.1 trillion won. The shift reflects a market trend where companies directly benefiting from AI infrastructure, like SK Hynix, are receiving higher valuation premiums than diversified giants. The surge is driven by AI-driven demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), where SK Hynix holds a dominant 70-80% market share. Its Q1 2026 revenue exceeded 50 trillion won for the first time, with an operating profit margin of 72%. Hanwha Investment & Securities significantly raised its price target for SK Hynix to 430,000 won, the highest among Korean brokerages. The key rationale is that Long-Term Supply Agreements (LTAs) and robust HBM demand have fundamentally reduced the company's historical profit volatility. Several other brokers have also raised targets, arguing the valuation framework for memory semiconductors is being rewritten, moving away from a cyclical model. Despite the bullish outlook, the stock experienced a pullback of over 5% in regular trading on June 23 after briefly surpassing 3 million won pre-market, amid broader tech sector weakness. Some analysts caution that the市值 overtaking Samsung, whose profit scale and growth forecasts remain higher, could signal short-term overheating. However, high-return investors viewed the dip as a buying opportunity.

marsbit1 saat önce

SK Hynix Market Cap Exceeds Samsung for First Time in 26 Years, Korean Broker Calls for 50% More Upside

marsbit1 saat önce

GPU Rental Prices Drop 30% in Three Weeks: AI Value Chain Migrating from Nvidia to Memory Chips

GPU rental prices for Nvidia's flagship B200 chip have fallen by approximately 30% over three weeks, dropping from a high of $6.11/hour to $4.22/hour. This decline signals a potential easing of the "compute scarcity" narrative that has long supported AI hardware valuations. Concurrently, the semiconductor market is witnessing a significant divergence: while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has risen 15% in the past month, with memory giants Micron and SanDisk each surging nearly 60%, Nvidia's stock has declined about 3% over the same period. Analysts suggest this shift indicates that the AI value chain's bottleneck and profits are migrating from compute (GPUs) to memory. Demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) remains intensely strong, with contract prices soaring over 100% in H1 2026, granting memory manufacturers significant pricing power. In contrast, increased B200 supply from improved manufacturing yields and competitive pressure from new cloud providers are softening GPU rental rates. While long-term contracts, like SpaceX's $30 billion deal with Google, show sustained large-scale demand for Nvidia hardware, the softening spot prices pressure the margins of cloud providers and could eventually impact Nvidia's order flow if chip prices don't adjust. The key takeaway for investors is not a weakening AI thesis, but a recalibration within the sector: pricing power appears to be strengthening for memory chipmakers while showing signs of strain for leading GPU suppliers.

marsbit1 saat önce

GPU Rental Prices Drop 30% in Three Weeks: AI Value Chain Migrating from Nvidia to Memory Chips

marsbit1 saat önce

İşlemler

Spot

Futures