Not every market cycle is the same, but there are patterns worth noting.
Based on this theory, analyst Michael van de Poppe has projected a repeat of the pre-COVID-style reshuffling among top-cap assets. Essentially, these cycles tend to be defined by rotational flows into alternative assets.
To put this in context, the projection draws from the 2019 cycle, when the ETH/BTC ratio hit a bottom at 0.02, only to launch a 300%+ rally by early Q4 2021.
Naturally, the question is, can Ethereum [ETH] pull off a repeat?
Looking at the technicals, the ratio is rebounding off the same 0.02 floor.
As the chart shows, since Q2 2025, the ratio has experienced vertical expansion, rising 75%. This aligns closely with Ethereum’s 80% rally to $3.4k, compared with Bitcoin’s [BTC] 15% gain over the same period.
In short, ETH’s weakness in 2025 versus BTC came from a 38% pullback in the ETH/BTC ratio during Q1, before bouncing back. But does this point to a confirmed bottom? If so, we could be looking at the start of a breakout.
Ethereum’s L1s take center stage
Sure, expecting a pre-COVID-style rally might be a bit of a stretch.
The logic is simple: Since the COVID-19 rally, the market has evolved significantly, placing BTC at the center of both spot and speculative capital flows, with its market cap reaching a record $2.5 trillion in early Q4 2025.
That said, Ethereum seems to be carving out its path, showing strength across key metrics. For instance, Ondo Finance now represents 11% of ETH’s RWA TVL, while Ethereum’s TPS recently hit a record 58k.
Taken together, this strength shows the 2019-style run hasn’t faded.
Instead, Ethereum’s on-chain performance is clearly catching up to Bitcoin’s dominance (BTC.D). For example, ETH’s market share has jumped 60%+ from the 8% low in Q2 2025, further reinforcing this thesis.
The key difference? ETH’s dominance is more fundamentally driven.
In the current macro context, this gives Ethereum a clear edge over Bitcoin. As regulations take shape, L1s are positioned to front-run the momentum, with the 75% ETH/BTC rebound serving as an early signal of this trend.
Final Thoughts
- Ethereum’s market share has rebounded sharply, with the ETH/BTC ratio up 75% from the Q2 2025 low, supported by strong developer activity.
- L1s are positioned to front-run market momentum, and ETH’s dominance signals a potential pre-COVID-style breakout as regulations clarify.
