SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240227)：BTC暴涨10%达到56000美元

Odaily星球日报2024-02-27 tarihinde yayınlandı2024-02-27 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

BTC的拉盘行情推动Vol Curve走平上行，整体水平达到55%-60%左右，与ETH的差距明显缩小，但观察到Vol Skew除了在Weekly内有所抬升以外并没有其他显著变化。

昨日（26 FEB）美国 2 月份公司发债规模达到 1530 亿美元，超过了去年 2 月份创下的 1509 亿美元的纪录，这或是一个让交易员在美联储降息之前能够抢购高收益票据的机会。十年期美债收益率一度走高至 4.3% 以后回落，现报 4.271% ，两年期报 4.691% 。美股方面，三大股指微跌，数字货币概念股大涨，Coinbase 和 MicroStrategy 皆收涨 16% 左右，主要成因来自 MicroStrategy 宣布增持 1.5 亿美元 BTC 的举措再次提振了数字货币市场的信心，使得 BTC 暴涨至 56027.26 （+ 9% ），顺带推动 ETH 站上 3200 关口（日内+ 4% ）。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240227)：BTC暴涨10%达到56000美元

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240227)：BTC暴涨10%达到56000美元

Source: Binance & TradingView，BTC 大涨至 56000

期权方面，BTC 的拉盘行情推动 Vol Curve 走平上行，整体水平达到 55% -60% 左右，与 ETH 的差距明显缩小，但观察到 Vol Skew 除了在 Weekly 内有所抬升以外并没有其他显著变化，从成交上解释， 1 MAR 上 54000/52500/52000 Put 被大量卖出，同时还有大量止盈的看涨 ITM 订单，共同压低了那一侧的 Vol Premium；中远期成交以 29 MAR 为代表，两侧的 Wing 上皆有大量的 OTM 期权被买入，因此在抬高整体波动率的同时并未对 Vol Skew 造成影响。

ETH 方面，三月底出现以 Sell 3000/3100 Buy 3400 Call 为代表的滚仓策略，还有一组行权价间隔较宽的 3200 vs 2500 PutSpread 被卖出（4000 ETH），彰显了交易员对此轮由大资金注入预期引导的市场上涨的信心；除此之外，三月其他期限上整体表现出 Buy Ratio Call Spread 和 Buy Put 的 Flow，使得 ETH 的 Vol Skew 在这段到期日内反而有所下降。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240227)：BTC暴涨10%达到56000美元

Source: Deribit （截至 27 FEB 16: 00 UTC+ 8）

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240227)：BTC暴涨10%达到56000美元

Source: SignalPlus，BTC 暴涨推动 IV 走平上行

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240227)：BTC暴涨10%达到56000美元

Source: SignalPlus，过去 24 小时 Vol Skew 的变化

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240227)：BTC暴涨10%达到56000美元

Data Source: Deribit，BTC 成交分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240227)：BTC暴涨10%达到56000美元

Data Source: Deribit，ETH 成交分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240227)：BTC暴涨10%达到56000美元

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240227)：BTC暴涨10%达到56000美元

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240227)：BTC暴涨10%达到56000美元您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：SignalPlus 123）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。

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