SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240221)：ETH挑战3000点

Odaily星球日报2024-02-21 tarihinde yayınlandı2024-02-21 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

ETH在重新触碰3000点后带动BTC一同出现回调，两者当前分别处在51000和2900上方震荡。期权方面，过去24小时远端IV普遍滑落1～2%Vol左右，ETH整体水平高出BTC 2.5%Vol以上。

昨日（20 FEB）市场开始出现讨论美联储是否需要重启加息的讨论，花旗集团表示，针对美联储可能只进行非常短暂的宽松周期，随后不久就重启加息的风险，投资者应具备更多的对冲措施，美债收益率呈现 V 字型走势，当前两年期/十年期分别为 4.589% /4.270% 。美股方面，在英伟达财报公布前，SPX 出现了以科技股为首的全面下跌（-0.6% ），道指/纳指也分别收跌 0.17% /0.92% 。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240221)：ETH挑战3000点

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240221)：ETH挑战3000点

Source: Binance & TradingView

数字货币方面，ETH 在重新触碰 3000 点后带动 BTC 一同出现回调，两者当前分别处在 51000 和 2900 上方震荡。期权方面，过去 24 小时远端 IV 普遍滑落 1 ～ 2% Vol 左右，ETH 整体水平高出 BTC 2.5% Vol 以上，前端 IV 更是在其挑战 3000 点的刺激下明显上扬，但期权成交量并没有见到明显的上涨，各期限上对于 3000-C 的博弈占据了昨日 ETH 成交的大量篇幅。除此之外，与价格回调一同出现的还有 Vol Skew 从历史高点出现的回落，前端甚至已跌破至负值，除开统计上 Skew 指标和价格的常见的正相关性，从交易上解读，BTC 短期大量的 Sell Call，或是 29 MAR 24 上形成的 Long Call Spread（Buy ATM Sell OTM ）也部分解释了 25 dRR 下降的情况。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240221)：ETH挑战3000点

Source: Deribit （截至 21 FEB 16: 00 UTC+ 8）

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240221)：ETH挑战3000点

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240221)：ETH挑战3000点

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240221)：ETH挑战3000点

Source: Laevitas，ETH 触碰到 3000 后并没有带动期权交易量上涨

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240221)：ETH挑战3000点

Data Source: Deribit， 3000-C 成为市场热点

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240221)：ETH挑战3000点

Data Source: Deribit

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240221)：ETH挑战3000点

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240221)：ETH挑战3000点

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240221)：ETH挑战3000点

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