加密游戏预测：2024年会是突破年吗？

Odaily星球日报2024-02-09 tarihinde yayınlandı2024-02-09 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

2023年，新兴区块链游戏行业继续增长，更精致的游戏体验也初见天日，但进展速度比2022年慢，根据已知数据预测2024年的区块链游戏将会发生什么变化？

2023 年，新兴的区块链游戏行业继续增长，更精致的游戏体验也初见天日，但进展速度比 2022 年慢。

加密游戏预测：2024年会是突破年吗？

根据 DappRadar 和 BGA 发布的报告中的数据，仅在 2023 年 5 月至 11 月期间，区块链游戏的投资就达到 14 亿美元，但更广泛的游戏行业的投资数量和交易价值则持续下降。

加密游戏预测：2024年会是突破年吗？

根据 Game 7 的报告，绝大多数区块链游戏都是独立或中型项目，AA 和 AAA 资金水平仅占市场的 6% 。 Game 7 发现，今年所有新区块链游戏中有一半来自亚洲，以游戏为中心的区块链总数同比增长了 84% 。

Pitchbook 在其今年第三季度游戏报告中将区块链游戏称为“被遗忘但并未消失”，认为虽然此类游戏的最初炒作周期已经消失，但一些“重要游戏”仍在开发中。那么 2024 年的区块链游戏会发生什么变化？

保持游戏的娱乐性

根据一些区块链游戏项目的路线图，我们能够预测 2024 年将是许多区块链游戏最终发布的一年。 我们看到 2023 年出现了许多引人注目的游戏，但许多游戏尚未完成或处于抢先体验阶段。 尽管如此，他们还是不断地在向目标靠近。业界很多人已经意识到，这些游戏需要优化才能带来乐趣。 可以看到的是，很多新的游戏确实包含了游戏应有的娱乐性。

开放世界区块链游戏 Cornucopias 的联合创始人兼联合首席执行官 Josh Jones 表示，新的一年，真正注重提升用户体验的游戏——即有趣、易于使用且具有引人入胜的故事情节的游戏——将成为一个大主题。 我们也许会看到许多基于区块链的游戏试图消除术语的行话，以便加密货币本地用户和非加密货币用户都可以轻松上手。 Jones 将加密术语视为进入 Web3 游戏的阻碍，并且认为在此之前围绕加密游戏的叙述不会改变。 Cornucopias 联合首席执行官还强调，生成式 AI 可能在 2024 年带给游戏更多的改进，允许根据玩家的选择进行更多定制。

Ryze Labs 研究分析师 Fred Li 称，链上游戏将倾向于成为开放世界游戏，玩家可以制定规则。他表示预计会出现让人想起《我的世界》的自主世界：人们不满足于仅仅成为 PGR（专业生成规则）游戏的消费者；成为 UGR（用户生成规则）游戏的创作者的需求越来越大，而完全链上的游戏使人们能够创建自主的世界。

尽管有平台限制，但游戏仍会找到受众

虽然 2023 年 Epic 上架了大量区块链游戏，但一款名为《Gods Unchained》在被添加到 Epic 后不久就被下架，因为 ESRB 视频游戏评级委员会将其评级为“仅限成人”。 根据 ESRB 的说法，任何为玩家提供具有“现实世界价值”的物品（例如 NFT 或加密货币）的游戏都可能被分配这样的评级，这将禁止他们上架一些潜在的游戏平台。

虽然 Gods Unchained 在下架进行调查后重新上市，并且 Epic 表示将不再纯粹因为集成了区块链而阻止评级为“仅限成人”的游戏，但此类事件提醒我们，区块链游戏还是无法保证在 Web2 第三方平台上分发。

比较之下 Web3 原生游戏分发平台是较为普遍的解决方案。虽然这样会阻碍很多 Web2 用户，但如果区块链游戏对玩家有足够的吸引力，那么无论其他潜在限制如何，它都会找到受众。

2024 年区块链游戏的趋势

加密游戏预测：2024年会是突破年吗？

同时，区块链游戏在整个亚洲国家将继续呈现增多的趋势。根据 DappRadar 与日本加密公司 Pacific Meta 联合进行的一项研究，预计亚洲游戏玩家将占据 Web3 游戏市场的绝大多数。研究发现，亚洲已经拥有全球 55% 的游戏人口和 17 亿玩家，并且很可能占所有 Web3 游戏玩家的 80% 。

加密 IP 公司 Story Protocol 的首席执行官兼联合创始人 Sy Lee 预测，到 2024 年，区块链游戏将在钱包活动中占据主导地位，高于目前约占所有 Dapp 交易的 30-40% 的范围。Lee 还相信，越来越多的游戏开发商将支持用户生成的内容和 Mod； 像 Deaddrop 和 Shrapnel 这样的游戏已经非常重视支持社区制作的游戏内容。

Polygon Labs 业务开发主管 Urvit Goel 认为，虽然 2023 年的资金比 2022 年和 2021 年大幅下降——同比下降约 70% ，但 2023 年相对较小的融资轮次不会阻止一些优秀游戏在 2024 年推出。

NFT 市场 Magic Eden 的首席游戏官 Chris Akhavan 表示， 2024 年发布 Web3 游戏可能会将获得足够的成功和流行，从而引起大型传统游戏工作室的注意，并希望复制这种成功。这将会促进非 Web3 游戏公司将再次启动 Web3 研发工作，投资者将继续大规模投资 Web3 游戏。

2024 年，可能会有更多的 Web2 玩家通过采用加密技术的成熟游戏进入区块链游戏。我们或将看到两三个大型 Web2 原生 IP 和游戏合并或切换到 Web3 基础设施层，这些将成为区块链游戏领域的催化剂。

参考资料：

1.https://dappradar.com/blog/blockchain-gaming-34-industry-share-145m-investments#Chapter-4

2.https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q3-2023-gaming-report

3.https://dappradar.com/blog/asia-has-potential-to-dominate-web3-gaming-market

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