SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119)：GBTC持续流出，加密市场将承受短期抛压

Odaily星球日报2024-01-19 tarihinde yayınlandı2024-01-19 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

在前一日短天期收益率经历了混乱的重新定价后，长天期收益率在强劲的房地产数据、初请失业救济人数创一年新低。随著GBTC资金持续流出，且对ETF获批的兴奋情绪有所减弱，币价自ETF推出以来出现下滑，GBTC折价的反转（回落至-0.956%）也表明存在一些短期抛售压力。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119)：GBTC持续流出，加密市场将承受短期抛压

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119)：GBTC持续流出，加密市场将承受短期抛压

在前一日短天期收益率经历了混乱的重新定价后，长天期收益率在强劲的房地产数据、初请失业救济人数创一年新低、以及欧美市场债券供应消化问题的背景下也出现重新定价，市场对西班牙和法国最新的债券发行反应平淡，而美国投资等级企业和 SSA (国际机构、次主权与政府机构) 本周截至目前为止已有约 350 亿美元的债券发行，拖累长天期收益率走升约 6 个基点。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119)：GBTC持续流出，加密市场将承受短期抛压美国初请失业救济人数大幅下降至 18.7 万（前值为 20.2 万），是一年多来的最低点，也将成为非农就业数据计算的参考数值，数据结果一开始令市场感到措手不及，而后续发布的新屋开工和营建许可也超出预期，显示新年开始住房需求依然强劲，部分原因是抵押贷款利率的下降。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119)：GBTC持续流出，加密市场将承受短期抛压

股市在科技股的带动下出现反弹，TSMC 预计 2024 年将回到“健康增长”，带动费城半导体指数走高，该公司预计 2024 财年营收将增长 20% ，并预计在日本、亚利桑那州和德国的全球扩张计划中投入 280 至 320 亿美元。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119)：GBTC持续流出，加密市场将承受短期抛压

此外，昨天下午晚些时候中国股指也出现反弹，部分大型 ETF 出现大规模成交量，引发市场猜测国家资金可能正在入市支撑，以遏制近期的跌势，多个中国 ETF 的交易量出现了自 2015 年以来最大的跳升（!!），同时沪深 300 指数也出现了约 3% 的逆转（从 -1.8% 至 + 1.4% ）。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119)：GBTC持续流出，加密市场将承受短期抛压

在加密货币方面，随著 GBTC 资金持续流出，且对 ETF 获批的兴奋情绪有所减弱，币价自 ETF 推出以来出现下滑，GBTC 折价的反转（回落至 -0.956% ）也表明存在一些短期抛售压力。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119)：GBTC持续流出，加密市场将承受短期抛压

在正面消息方面，Coinbase 与 SEC 案件在周三的口头辩论中似乎对前者有利，一些评论指出，该案法官准备得非常充分，对相关议题非常了解，为听证会起草了超过 14 页的内容，且熟悉各种加密货币术语和技术；Coinbase 提出了有力的论据，认为在其平台上交易的加密货币资产不满足 Howey test 的要素，且代币“本身不是证券”似乎存在普遍共识。

然而，Failla 法官似乎也不愿意纯粹以“重大问题原则”来驳回此案（重大议题应由国会而不是 SEC 等机构提出），该案仍有可能会继续发展，还需要好几个月才能有结果。

简而言之，此案似乎有机会成为对抗 SEC 的另一场胜利，不过拖延的时间可能会比许多人希望的还要更长。

(本文观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议)

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119)：GBTC持续流出，加密市场将承受短期抛压

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119)：GBTC持续流出，加密市场将承受短期抛压

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：xdengalin）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。

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