加密市场情绪研究报告(01.05–01.12)：ETF通过，加密货币成为长期高可信度资产

Odaily星球日报2024-01-13 tarihinde yayınlandı2024-01-13 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

本周行情BTC在高位冲高回落，有明显较多的获利了结的仓位，而ETH上涨动力较强，两者的隐含波动率都急速下降，说明ETF通过的消息公布后，波动率将逐步收敛。

市值超越第十的潜力：加密货币通过 ETF 得到更广泛认可，吸引更多投资者，有潜力使市值超过前十大资产市值（目前第十）。
交易量激增：加密货币 ETF 吸引机构投资者，导致交易量大幅增加，提高流动性和价格稳定性，增加吸引力。
购买门槛降低：通过 ETF 提供加密货币，个人投资者准入门槛大幅降低，可以通过传统经纪账户进行投资，简化了投资流程。
长期配置有监管保障：加密货币 ETF 的批准提供监管监督和投资者保护，确保透明度、风险管理和合规性，使长期配置更安全。

加密货币是一种新兴资产类别，具有去中心化、安全性高、快速跨境转账等特点，正在改变传统金融体系。加密货币 ETF 的出现进一步提高了加密货币作为长期投资资产的可信度和吸引力，推动市场增长，增加投资的可获得性，并为投资者提供监管保障。

如果对加密货币持有看不见、看不起、看不懂的态度，可能会错过这个激动人心的金融创新所带来的增长机会。加密货币市场潜力巨大，已经得到许多机构、投资者和企业的认可。通过深入了解加密货币的基本原理和市场趋势，以及通过加密货币的专业机构参与投资，可以降低风险并分享这个快速发展领域的收益。

比特币减半距离今天（2024.01.12）还有约 87 天

减半倒计时：https://www.nicehash.com/countdown/btc-halving-2024-05-10-12-00?_360safeparam=1289146171

市场技术与情绪环境分析

加密市场情绪研究报告(01.05–01.12)：ETF通过，加密货币成为长期高可信度资产

情绪分析组成

加密市场情绪研究报告(01.05–01.12)：ETF通过，加密货币成为长期高可信度资产

技术指标

价格走势

过去一周 BTC 价格上涨+ 3.73% ，ETH 价格下跌-3.29% 。

加密市场情绪研究报告(01.05–01.12)：ETF通过，加密货币成为长期高可信度资产

上图是 BTC 过去一周的价格图

加密市场情绪研究报告(01.05–01.12)：ETF通过，加密货币成为长期高可信度资产

上图是 ETH 过去一周的价格图

加密市场情绪研究报告(01.05–01.12)：ETF通过，加密货币成为长期高可信度资产

表格显示过去一个周的价格变化率

价量分布图（支撑阻力）

过去一周 BTC 与 ETH 价格在相对低位产生很大的交易量并形成底部密集成交区。

加密市场情绪研究报告(01.05–01.12)：ETF通过，加密货币成为长期高可信度资产

上图是 BTC 过去一周的密集成交区分布图

加密市场情绪研究报告(01.05–01.12)：ETF通过，加密货币成为长期高可信度资产

上图是 ETH 过去一周的密集成交区分布图

加密市场情绪研究报告(01.05–01.12)：ETF通过，加密货币成为长期高可信度资产

表格显示 BTC 与 ETH 过去一周中每周的密集成交区间

成交量与未平仓量

过去一周 BTC 与 ETH 都在 01.03 急速下跌成交量极大；未平仓量 BTC 与 ETH 都有大幅下降。

加密市场情绪研究报告(01.05–01.12)：ETF通过，加密货币成为长期高可信度资产

上图最上方 BTC 的价格走势，中间是成交量、最下方是未平仓量、浅蓝色是 1 天均值，橘色是 7 天均值。其中 K 线的颜色代表当前的状态，绿色是价格上升有成交量支持，红色是在平仓，黄色是在缓慢累积仓位，黑色是拥挤状态。

加密市场情绪研究报告(01.05–01.12)：ETF通过，加密货币成为长期高可信度资产

上图最上方 ETH 的价格走势，中间是成交量、最下方是未平仓量、浅蓝色是 1 天均值，橘色是 7 天均值。其中 K 线的颜色代表当前的状态，绿色是价格上升有成交量支持，红色是在平仓，黄色是在缓慢累积仓位，黑色是拥挤状态。

历史波动率与隐含波动率

过去一周历史波动率 BTC 在 01.11 公布 CPI 时最高而 ETH 在 01.10 上涨时最高，隐含波动率大幅下降。

加密市场情绪研究报告(01.05–01.12)：ETF通过，加密货币成为长期高可信度资产

黄色线为历史波动率，蓝色线为隐含波动率，红点是其 7 日平均

事件驱动

本周 2024.01.11 北京时间 21: 30 公布 CPI 数据，预测值为 3.2% ，公布值为 3.4% ，公布后比特币冲高回落。

情绪指标

动量情绪

过去一周比特币/黄金/纳指/恒指/沪深 300 中，比特币最强势，而表现最差为恒指。

加密市场情绪研究报告(01.05–01.12)：ETF通过，加密货币成为长期高可信度资产

上图为不同资产过去一周的走势

加密市场情绪研究报告(01.05–01.12)：ETF通过，加密货币成为长期高可信度资产

放贷利率_借贷情绪

过去一周 USD 放贷年化收益平均为 12.1% ，短期利率反弹。

加密市场情绪研究报告(01.05–01.12)：ETF通过，加密货币成为长期高可信度资产

黄色线为 USD 利率的最高价，蓝色线为最高价的 75% ，红色线为最高价的 75% 的 7 天平均值

加密市场情绪研究报告(01.05–01.12)：ETF通过，加密货币成为长期高可信度资产

表格显示 USD 利率过去不同持有天数的平均收益

资金费率_合约杠杆情绪

过去一周 BTC 资费平均年化收益为 10.9% ，合约杠杆情绪下降到低位。

加密市场情绪研究报告(01.05–01.12)：ETF通过，加密货币成为长期高可信度资产

蓝色线为币安上 BTC 的资金费率，红色线为其 7 日平均表格显示 BTC 的资费过去不同持有天数的平均收益

市场宽度_整体情绪

过去一周选中的 129 个在币有 52% 的币在 30 日均线上方，目前超一半的币都回升至 30 日均线上方。

加密市场情绪研究报告(01.05–01.12)：ETF通过，加密货币成为长期高可信度资产

上图为[‘ 1000 floki’, ‘ 1000 lunc’, ‘ 1000 pepe’, ‘ 1000 shib’, ‘ 100 0x ec’, ‘1inch’, ‘aave’, ‘ada’, ‘agix’, ‘algo’, ‘ankr’, ‘ant’, ‘ape’, ‘apt’, ‘arb’, ‘ar’, ‘astr’, ‘atom’, ‘audio’, ‘avax’, ‘axs’, ‘bal’, ‘band’, ‘bat’, ‘bch’, ‘bigtime’, ‘blur’, ‘bnb’, ‘btc’, ‘celo’, ‘cfx’, ‘chz’, ‘ckb’, ‘comp’, ‘crv’, ‘cvx’, ‘cyber’, ‘dash’, ‘dgb’, ‘doge’, ‘dot’, ‘dydx’, ‘egld’, ‘enj’, ‘ens’, ‘eos’,’etc’, ‘eth’, ‘fet’, ‘fil’, ‘flow’, ‘ftm’, ‘fxs’, ‘gala’, ‘gmt’, ‘gmx’, ‘grt’, ‘hbar’, ‘hot’, ‘icp’, ‘icx’, ‘imx’, ‘inj’, ‘iost’, ‘iotx’, ‘jasmy’, ‘kava’, ‘klay’, ‘ksm’, ‘ldo’, ‘link’, ‘loom’, ‘lpt’, ‘lqty’, ‘lrc’, ‘ltc’, ‘luna 2 ’, ‘magic’, ‘mana’, ‘matic’, ‘meme’, ‘mina’, ‘mkr’, ‘near’, ‘neo’, ‘ocean’, ‘one’, ‘ont’, ‘op’, ‘pendle’, ‘qnt’, ‘qtum’, ‘rndr’, ‘rose’, ‘rune’, ‘rvn’, ‘sand’, ‘sei’, ‘sfp’, ‘skl’, ‘snx’, ‘sol’, ‘ssv’, ‘stg’, ‘storj’, ‘stx’, ‘sui’, ‘sushi’, ‘sxp’, ‘theta’, ‘tia’, ‘trx’, ‘t’, ‘uma’, ‘uni’, ‘vet’, ‘waves’, ‘wld’, ‘woo’, ‘xem’, ‘xlm’, ‘xmr’, ‘xrp’, ‘xtz’, ‘yfi’, ‘zec’, ‘zen’, ‘zil’, ‘zrx’]在 30 日均线上方的占比

市场相关性_一致性情绪

过去一周选中的 46 个币中相关性在 0.65 左右，不同品种间产生较为一致的行情。

加密市场情绪研究报告(01.05–01.12)：ETF通过，加密货币成为长期高可信度资产

上图蓝色先为比特币价格，绿色线为[‘ 1000 floki’, ‘ 1000 lunc’, ‘ 1000 pepe’, ‘ 1000 shib’, ‘ 100 0x ec’, ‘1inch’, ‘aave’, ‘ada’, ‘agix’, ‘algo’, ‘ankr’, ‘ant’, ‘ape’, ‘apt’, ‘arb’, ‘ar’, ‘astr’, ‘atom’, ‘audio’, ‘avax’, ‘axs’, ‘bal’, ‘band’, ‘bat’, ‘bch’, ‘bigtime’, ‘blur’, ‘bnb’, ‘btc’, ‘celo’, ‘cfx’, ‘chz’, ‘ckb’, ‘comp’, ‘crv’, ‘cvx’, ‘cyber’, ‘dash’, ‘dgb’, ‘doge’, ‘dot’, ‘dydx’, ‘egld’, ‘enj’, ‘ens’, ‘eos’,’etc’, ‘eth’, ‘fet’, ‘fil’, ‘flow’, ‘ftm’, ‘fxs’, ‘gala’, ‘gmt’, ‘gmx’, ‘grt’, ‘hbar’, ‘hot’, ‘icp’, ‘icx’, ‘imx’, ‘inj’, ‘iost’, ‘iotx’, ‘jasmy’, ‘kava’, ‘klay’, ‘ksm’, ‘ldo’, ‘link’, ‘loom’, ‘lpt’, ‘lqty’, ‘lrc’, ‘ltc’, ‘luna 2 ’, ‘magic’, ‘mana’, ‘matic’, ‘meme’, ‘mina’, ‘mkr’, ‘near’, ‘neo’, ‘ocean’, ‘one’, ‘ont’, ‘op’, ‘pendle’, ‘qnt’, ‘qtum’, ‘rndr’, ‘rose’, ‘rune’, ‘rvn’, ‘sand’, ‘sei’, ‘sfp’, ‘skl’, ‘snx’, ‘sol’, ‘ssv’, ‘stg’, ‘storj’, ‘stx’, ‘sui’, ‘sushi’, ‘sxp’, ‘theta’, ‘tia’, ‘trx’, ‘t’, ‘uma’, ‘uni’, ‘vet’, ‘waves’, ‘wld’, ‘woo’, ‘xem’, ‘xlm’, ‘xmr’, ‘xrp’, ‘xtz’, ‘yfi’, ‘zec’, ‘zen’, ‘zil’, ‘zrx’]整体的相关性

市场热点_社交媒体情绪

过去一周热度轮动分别的是 stx/arb/gmt/etc/ens。

加密市场情绪研究报告(01.05–01.12)：ETF通过，加密货币成为长期高可信度资产

数据来源： https://lunarcrush.com/categories/cryptocurrencies

总结

本周行情 BTC 在高位冲高回落，有明显较多的获利了结的仓位，而 ETH 上涨动力较强，两者的隐含波动率都急速下降，说明 ETF 通过的消息公布后，波动率将逐步收敛；129 个币安宽度指标显示本周有 52% 小市值币在均线上方，市场大部分的币兑出现反弹；热点方面 stx/arb/gmt/etc/ens 轮动拉升，但涨幅不大；事件方面， 1.11 的 CPI 数据公布后 BTC 与 ETH 冲高回落。

Binance CopyTrading: CTA_ChannelCMT

Twitter: @DerivativesCN

Website: https://dcbot.ai/

Medium:https://medium.com/@DerivativesCN

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