2024年随想：对加密市场的20条预测

Odaily星球日报2024-01-12 tarihinde yayınlandı2024-01-12 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

AI 依然距离实际落地有较长的距离，但不影响它成为 2024 年重要叙事之一，基于 L2 和高性能公链的 AI 协议也会逐步出现。

2024年随想：对加密市场的20条预测

2024 预测，纯粹猜想，有诸多偏见，不能做投资建议，仅当娱乐，不必当真。

  • L2 依然会是 2024 年最重要的叙事之一。随着 dencun 升级的到来，L2 费用大幅度下降会带来 L2 生态的爆发。在 L2 上除了游戏、perp、defi、nft，还有 social、depin 等也会迎来爆发期。

  • arb、op、zksync、starknet 以及 blast 等 L2 在全方面与其他公链展开竞争，且随着 EIP-4844 的落地，以及 DA 层的演化，在费用和速度上与高性能公链并驾齐驱，a.bitrum 和 solana 的生态竞争会是 2024 年的一大重要看点。

  • zksync 在 2024 年会推出经济机制，成为推动 L2 爆发的一支重要力量。

  • starknet 如果实现突破，会从全链游戏叙事开启。

  • 2024 年有一个 L2 项目稀释后总市值突破 1000 亿美元；乐观情况下，周期高峰时期会有一个 L2 稀释后总市值突破 3000 亿美元。L2 市场最终格局在 2024 年还无法确定，不过这个周期之后会基本定局。

  • btc 生态经过铭文一役已经打开了魔盒，有很多团队在进行扩展方面的探索，其中包括索引的去中心化、铭文体系进化、去中心化跨链、zk 证明、L2 等诸多探索等，一旦取得进展，一是自身生态会发展；二是跟以太坊生态融合也会加速。btc 生态的探索是这一周期最引人注目的演化之一。

  • 以太坊 L1 逐渐演化成为 B2B 链，普通用户的绝大多数交互会发生在 L2/L3 以及少数高性能 L1 上，以太坊逐渐成为加密领域的底层资产。同时，随着模块化区块链的演化，以太坊会成为最重要的结算层，多数执行层和部分 DA 层会外包出去，但最终来说，由于最底层安全的需求，ETH 依然会捕获整体生态增长的价值。

  • 跟 2023 年的预测相同，模块化在 2024 年依然会是重要叙事，尤其会在 DA 层进行激烈竞争。以太坊再质押领域也会进入 DA 层进行角逐。在模块化领域，cosmos 生态和以太坊生态有竞争也有融合。第三方 DA 和原生 DA 之间之间会有竞争，在 danksharding 没有实现之前，L2 急迫的市场需求导致第三方 DA 存在一定规模的需求。

  • 除以太坊和 BTC 生态之外，cosmos 和 solana 生态也会持续发展，这跟去年年初的预测保持一致。cosmos 会通过模块化取得进展；solana 则通过一些应用取得进展。此外，随着模块化区块链的成熟，solana 其中的一个演化方向是跟其他 L2 一样，参与到更广阔的加密生态中，跟以太坊的融合度会更高，从而捕获更大价值。

  • web3 游戏在 L2/L3（arb、starknet 等）实现突破，有一款游戏用户超过百万（2023 年没有实现， 2024 应该到了成熟的时机）。基于 Arb 的游戏链会成为 web3 游戏突破的前沿阵地。magic 在 2024 随着游戏链 + 更多游戏的互操作性推出，对 web3 游戏演化产生重要启示。

  • blur 除了融合 nft dex、nft 借贷、blast 之外，预计今年进入 nft perp，甚至是 L2、btc 以及 sol 生态的 nft 市场，blur 在 2024 依然有机会扮演最重要的行业搅局者之一。

  • 以太坊生态除了 L2 上项目爆发，预计还会产生较大规模的通缩，从而实现价值捕获。跟其他 L1 链增发 + 费用归矿工做安全费用不同，全部新增和费用反馈给质押及持有用户，这会激励更多用户进行质押 / 再质押，从而进一步锁定流通中的 eth。

  • defi 中的 perp 在 2024 会得到大规模发展，snx、gmx、gns、dydx 等都会产生至少 5 倍于 2023 年的交易量；perp 在牛市不一定是重要叙事，但大概率是基本面最好赛道之一。

  • 模块化区块链和跨链技术的推进，会导致以太坊生态与 btc 生态、Solana 生态的融合，这一周期会涌现很多目前还不怎么知名的项目。按照目前 btc 生态演化，其中有一条路径可能是以太坊承载 btc 的二层，如果成真，比特币和以太坊的融合度会逐步提升。不管如何，btc 的扩展需要走自己的原生道路，类似于 atomicals 这样的协议，如果能把 avm 做出来，对 btc 生态发展会产生重要影响。

  • depin 在 solana 和 arbitrum 上取得一些突破，这一赛道依然处于建设早期，更多探索类项目会出来。

  • AI 依然距离实际落地有较长的距离，但不影响它成为 2024 年重要叙事之一，基于 L2 和高性能公链的 AI 协议也会逐步出现。

  • 以太坊再抵押赛道在今年某个时候会成为重要叙事之一。

  • NFT、MEME 以及铭文在某个时候复苏，同时带来 NFT DEX 交易量的上涨，并为 NFT Perp 推出提供市场基础。

  • 部分名人进入 nft、meme、铭文领域。

  • 随着 L2 的发展和高频应用的探索，智能合约钱包有机会在 2024 年开始崭露头角。

  • 风险警示：以上所有分析仅是对技术和市场的片面观察，不一定对，请务必保持自己的判断并做好风险控制。

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