SignalPlus宏观研报(20240102)：ETF批准将近，市场投机情绪暴涨

Odaily星球日报2024-01-02 tarihinde yayınlandı2024-01-02 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

由于市场预计大多数已开发市场央行将出现一波降息潮，投资者几乎做多了所有资产类别（美元除外）。随著ETF批准将至，一些加密货币相关股票（例如上市矿企）出现年终获利了结的操作，短期资金流动仍不明朗，可能会同时受到机构资金流入以及GBTC供应释放的影响。

现在如果还不玩 BTC 的末日期权，你还等到啥时候玩末日。盈利高，杠杆大， 1 月 12 日的看涨冲起来。46000 的看涨，现在权利金价格 4.35% ， 23 倍杠杆（按头寸，按 delta 是 11.5 倍）；我的经验，只要止盈及时，你的预期收益绝对是正的。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240102)：ETF批准将近，市场投机情绪暴涨

新年快乐！全球资产市场在明显的乐观情绪中进入了 2024 年，由于市场预计大多数已开发市场央行将出现一波降息潮，投资者几乎做多了所有资产类别（美元除外）。过去一年，市场让大多数宏观观察者都感到意外，风险资产在逆境之中攀升，尽管美联储的加息步伐前所未见，美国股市去年仍收在接近历史高点，再次证明宏观关系是相当复杂且不断变化的。

事后分析，现在可以很清楚地看到为什么 2023 年对风险资产来说是如此正面的一年：

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240102)：ETF批准将近，市场投机情绪暴涨

随著新的一年势头高涨，且全球央行准备降息，风险情绪在短期内可能很难减弱，特别是随著新资本投入，市场在年初往往能享受正面的季节性因素；当前估值无疑很高，且我们仍然看空美国固定收益，因为我们认为投资者高估了美联储政策放松的程度，同时低估了供应增加的负面影响，我们认为收益率很难维持在当前的水平，尽管如此，美联储仍有机会在第一季/第二季就采取“保险式降息”，以缓解目前 IPO/私募股权/房地产市场的深度冻结状态，后续随著经济状况保持良好，政策放松的程度会比较小，因此，正确的做法可能是暂时先享受当前的市场上涨，进入第二季时再担心可能的回撤。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240102)：ETF批准将近，市场投机情绪暴涨

本周将迎来较多经济数据，包括 ISM、JOLTS、FOMC 会议纪要、ADP、非农就业、ISM 服务业和耐用品订单等，如果数据结果仍倾向鸽派，早期的 FOMO 风险可能会再次出现。

加密货币价格继续快速复苏，BTC 逼近去年 4 月的高点 4.6 万美元，随著市场预计 SEC 将于本周对 BTC 现货 ETF 给出最终批准，投机情绪正在升温， 2023 年底的期权未平仓量和月交易量创下新高，上周五，Deribit 上有超过 110 亿美元的 BTC 和 ETH 期权到期， 12 月的交易量超过 18 亿美元，超过了 10 月的高点。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240102)：ETF批准将近，市场投机情绪暴涨

随著 ETF 批准将至，一些加密货币相关股票（例如上市矿企）出现年终获利了结的操作，短期资金流动仍不明朗，可能会同时受到机构资金流入以及 GBTC 供应释放的影响；与我们对股市的看法类似，建议顺应近期市场势头，并注意尘埃落定后可能会出现的市场回调。祝各位新的一年交易顺利！

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240102)：ETF批准将近，市场投机情绪暴涨

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：xdengalin）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

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