加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

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美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹。

美国 CPI 数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

道指首次突破 37, 000 点，市场欢迎美联储降息信号，虽然美联储主席鲍威尔保留了进一步加息的可能性，但市场基本未予理会。标普 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别上涨 1.4% 。道琼斯指数首次突破 37000 点，报收于历史新高 37090 点。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

数据来源: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/LiquidationData

加密市场于 2023.12.11 发生急速下跌，市场爆仓量高达 4.552 亿美元，随后价格收复失地，回到上升趋势。

比特币减半距离今天（2023.12.15）还有约 132 天

减半倒计时：https://www.nicehash.com/countdown/btc-halving-2024-05-10-12-00?_360safeparam=1289146171

市场技术与情绪环境分析

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

情绪分析组成

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

技术指标

价格走势

过去一周 BTC 价格下跌-0.58% ，ETH 价格下跌-1.72% 。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

上图是 BTC 过去一周的价格图

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

上图是 ETH 过去一周的价格图

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

表格显示过去一个周的价格变化率

价量分布图（支撑阻力）

过去一周 BTC 与 ETH 价格下跌后形成新的密集区且在低位有较大成交量。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

上图是 BTC 过去一周的密集成交区分布图

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

上图是 ETH 过去一周的密集成交区分布图

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

表格显示 BTC 与 ETH 过去一周中每周的密集成交区间

成交量与未平仓量

过去一周 BTC 与 ETH 都在 12.11 放大量下跌；未平仓量下降。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

上图最上方 BTC 的价格走势，中间是成交量、最下方是未平仓量、浅蓝色是 1 天均值，橘色是 7 天均值。其中 K 线的颜色代表当前的状态，绿色是价格上升有成交量支持，红色是在平仓，黄色是在缓慢累积仓位，黑色是拥挤状态。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

上图最上方 ETH 的价格走势，中间是成交量、最下方是未平仓量、浅蓝色是 1 天均值，橘色是 7 天均值。其中 K 线的颜色代表当前的状态，绿色是价格上升有成交量支持，红色是在平仓，黄色是在缓慢累积仓位，黑色是拥挤状态。

历史波动率与隐含波动率

过去一周 BTC 与 ETH 历史波动率在 12.11 最高，隐含波动率上升后回落。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

黄色线为历史波动率，蓝色线为隐含波动率，红点是其 7 日平均

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

事件驱动

本周非农与 CPI 数据公布（北京时间）， 2023.12.08 21: 30 公布的非农数据比预测值好，随后比特币价格从 43594 上涨到最高 44700 （2023.12.09 05: 00）， 2023.12.12 21: 30 公布的 CPI 数据与预测值一致，随后比特币价格从 42132 下跌到最低 40222 （2023.12.12 03: 30）。

情绪指标

动量情绪

过去一周比特币/黄金/纳指/恒指/沪深 300 中，纳指与黄金都比较强势，而表现最差的为比特币。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

上图为不同资产过去一周的走势

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

放贷利率_借贷情绪

过去一周 USD 放贷年化收益平均为 14.5% ，利率持续下跌。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

黄色线为 USD 利率的最高价，蓝色线为最高价的 75% ，红色线为最高价的 75% 的 7 天平均值

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

表格显示 USD 利率过去不同持有天数的平均收益

资金费率_合约杠杆情绪

过去一周 BTC 资费平均年化收益为 15.8% ，合约杠杆情绪升温。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

蓝色线为币安上 BTC 的资金费率，红色线为其 7 日平均

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

表格显示 BTC 的资费过去不同持有天数的平均收益

市场宽度_整体情绪

过去一周选中的 46 个币有 85% 的币在 30 日均线上方，相较上周微跌。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

上图为['btc', 'eth', 'bnb', 'ltc', 'bch', 'doge', 'matic', 'sol','link','uni', 'enj','gala', 'mana', 'axs', 'dydx', 'fet' ,'gmx', 'xlm', 'xrp', 'ada', 'trx', 'sol', 'dot', 'avax', 'shib', 'atom', 'xmr', 'etc', 'ldo', 'hbar', 'apt', 'vet', 'qnt', 'vet','crv', 'aave', 'algo', 'ftm', 'ape', 'neo', 'sand', 'eos', 'xtz', 'rndr', 'theta', 'mkr']在 30 日均线上方的占比

市场相关性_一致性情绪

过去一周选中的 46 个币中相关性下降至 0.47 左右，不同品种间产生分歧的行情。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

上图蓝色先为比特币价格，绿色线为['btc', 'eth', 'bnb', 'ltc', 'bch', 'doge', 'matic', 'sol','link','uni', 'enj','gala', 'mana', 'axs', 'dydx', 'fet' ,'gmx', 'xlm', 'xrp', 'ada', 'trx', 'sol', 'dot', 'avax', 'shib', 'atom', 'xmr', 'etc', 'ldo', 'hbar', 'apt', 'vet', 'qnt', 'vet','crv', 'aave', 'algo', 'ftm', 'ape', 'neo', 'sand', 'eos', 'xtz', 'rndr', 'theta', 'mkr']整体的相关性

市场热点_社交媒体情绪

过去一周热度最高分别的是 hbar/aave/fet/sol/ftm，情绪的上升也伴随较大的涨幅。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.08-12.15)：美国CPI数据符合预期，道指创下历史新高，比特币急跌后强势反弹

数据来源： https://lunarcrush.com/categories/cryptocurrencies

总结

本周行情 BTC 与 ETH 都走出了急跌反弹的行情，隐含波动率于 2023.12.11 上升后回落，宽度指标显示目前维持在上升趋势；热点方面 hbar/aave/fet/sol/ftm 近期较高，价格持续上升；事件方面，公布了非农数据后主流币价格上涨，CPI 数据公布后主流币价格下跌。跟单策略过去 7 天收益为 0.92% ，过去 30 天收益为 5.67% 。

Binance CopyTrading: CTA_ChannelCMT

Twitter: @DerivativesCN

Website: https://dcbot.ai/

Medium:https://medium.com/@DerivativesCN

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