SignalPlus宏观研报特别版:Counter-Coup

Odaily星球日报2023-11-21 tarihinde yayınlandı2023-11-21 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

尽管在初期投资者有些担心AI相关股票会出现下跌,不过Microsoft的反制协助消除了所有担忧,科技股最终上涨1.5%,轻松超过SPX 0.7%的涨幅。

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版:Counter-Coup

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版:Counter-Coup

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版:Counter-Coup

在 72 小时内,市场见证了一场令人震惊的董事会政变,以及随后由 MSFT CEO Satya 主导的反政变(比最佳电影还要更精彩),AI 局面可能从此改变;其中最明显的赢家似乎是 Microsoft,该公司将 AI 竞赛中最显眼的人才纳入麾下,且是一个完全营利性质的组织,并为 Altman 的团队提供了比 OpenAI 时期更强大的芯片运算能力; (到目前为止)最明显的输家似乎是 OpenAI 的投资者(除了 MSFT)、董事会和员工,虽然 700 名员工中已经有 505 名威胁要集体辞职,除非更换现任董事会。看来又是一个必看的 Netflix 影集。

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版:Counter-Coup

尽管在初期投资者有些担心 AI 相关股票会出现下跌,不过 Microsoft 的反制协助消除了所有担忧,科技股最终上涨 1.5% ,轻松超过 SPX 0.7% 的涨幅,大型科技巨头的强势表现继续超越指数的其他成分股,其中中小型股、价值股和大多数其他风格因子股票其实是下跌的,然而,不要指望这种现象会在当前“赢者通吃”的世界中很快发生变化,这种现象几乎在每个板块都普遍存在。

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版:Counter-Coup

在固定收益方面,强劲的 20 年期债券拍卖结果再次印证了近期收益率的下滑,拍卖统计数据达到 2019 年 9 月以来的最强水平,带动 10 年期收益率在盘中下跌 5 个基点。与信用利差显著缩窄、收益率隐含波动率下降以及债券期货头寸的重大转变一致,债券市场的交易已经表现得像是美联储即将开始全面宽松政策,并兴高采烈地忽略了美联储最近所有试图否定的言论(例如,里士满联储:“工作还没完成“),“对抗美联储 - 续集”预计将在未来几个月回归市场。

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版:Counter-Coup

回顾最近的债券反弹,几周前发布的 CPI 导致固定收益出现了 13 年来第二大反弹幅度 (!),说明了债券投资者原先有多偏离轨道,并解释了转向鸽派如何给所有宏观资产类别带来动能,美元汇率也出现大幅反转,特别是美元兑日圆(152 -> 147),资产管理公司 PIMCO 也表达了看多日圆的观点;随著投资者预计新兴市场将成为美元转向的主要受益者之一,美元兑人民币和美元兑日圆的外汇期权交易量异常激增,远远超过欧元和其他已开发市场货币。

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版:Counter-Coup

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版:Counter-Coup

今天我们将迎来重要的 Nvidia 财报(股票交易价格已接近历史高点),接下来还有 11 月 26 日的 OPEC 会议以及感恩节假期的零售销售数据,根据稍早的客户调查,今年黑色星期五和网路星期一的消费支出预计将创下新高,节前 10 月的线上支出已经创下历史纪录,消费支出较去年同期成长 6% ,其中电子产品和服饰领域表现强劲,而主要零售商(Amazon、Target、UPS)的招聘计划看起来也相当理想,市场普遍预期今年假期销售将年增 13% 。

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版:Counter-Coup

除此之外,市场看起来在年底前会比较平静,SPX 每日隐含波动率跌至周期低点,但已实现的回报仍高度倾向上涨(即做多是有利可图的),虽然股票确实处在一个昂贵的水平,但合理的交易可能只有“做多或持平”,空头大概只能继续放假,等待在新年后回归。

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版:Counter-Coup

在加密货币方面,尽管 SEC 已正式将大部分 BTC 现货 ETF 批准推迟到 2024 年 1 月,但风险情绪的高涨仍是外溢到主要币种。另外,监管压力又回来了,有报导指出,在寻求超过 40 亿美元的罚款外,SEC 打算对 Binance 和 CZ 提起诉讼,而美国交易所 Kraken 也成为最新一家遭到 SEC 指控运营未注册平台和混合客户资金的交易所。

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版:Counter-Coup

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版:Counter-Coup

SignalPlus宏观研报特别版:Counter-Coup

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ,获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:xdengalin)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。

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