Bitcoin Volatility Unchanged Amid Dominant Downtrend; HYPE Faces Repeated Tests at Critical Trendline | Guest Analysis
This weekly market analysis updates the outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) and HYPE based on recent price action, largely confirming prior predictions.
**Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis:**
The report maintains that BTC is in a downtrend but currently within a corrective rebound phase that began from the July 1st low of $57,820. This rebound has reached a key resistance near $64,700. The daily chart shows a developing "descending central zone," suggesting a shift into a consolidation/range-bound phase. The 4-hour chart indicates the rebound may be completing, with proprietary models showing potential short-term topping signals near the current levels.
**BTC Trading Strategy (July 13-19):**
* **Key Levels:** Resistance is at $64,700, $65,700-$67,300, and $69,500-$71,000. Support lies at $60,950-$62,000, $57,820, and $55,000.
* **Mid-term:** The overall structure is bearish. Hold ~20% short positions. Consider increasing shorts to 50% if price rallies to the $65,700-$67,300 zone and shows weakness.
* **Short-term:** Use 30% capital for tactical trades. Three scenarios are outlined:
1. **A (Buying Dip):** Consider buying if price drops to $60,950-$62,000 support and shows signs of stabilization.
2. **B (Selling Rally):** Consider shorting if price rallies to the $65,700-$67,300 resistance zone with confirming signals.
3. **C (Buying Higher Low):** Consider buying if, after a breakout above $65,700, a pullback finds support above $57,820.
**HYPE Analysis:**
HYPE performed as anticipated last week, facing resistance and correcting from the warned level near $72.97 ("Endpoint 61"), with a maximum drop of 9.39%. The current (61-62) correction leg on the 4-hour chart has broken below a previous low ($68.16), damaging the prior upward structure.
**HYPE Trading Strategy:**
* **Key Levels:** Resistance is at $68-$69.5, $72.97, and $76.94. Support is at $65.5 and $60.5-$61.5.
* **Outlook:** The focus is on where the current correction ends and whether any subsequent rebound can surpass the $72.97 resistance.
* **Strategy:** Stay观望 if a rebound breaks above $72.97 (near the all-time high). However, if a rebound fails to reach $72.97, consider establishing short positions (up to 30%仓位) with strict stop-losses.
**General Risk Management:**
The article emphasizes strict trade execution: set initial stop-loss immediately, move stop-loss to breakeven at +1% profit, and then trail it upwards by 1% for every additional 1% gain to lock in profits dynamically.
*Disclaimer: The analysis is based on personal technical models for journaling purposes and is not investment advice. Markets are volatile; trade cautiously.*
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