【一周靓文】上海升级如期而至，以太坊上演狂潮

投研第一线2023-04-15 tarihinde yayınlandı2023-04-15 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

一周靓文，回顾过去一周最值得关注的热点文章，帮您快速理解市场动态。

上海升级靴子落地

上海升级后的以太坊：展望质押赛道与抛压分析

以太坊上海升级已于北京时间4月13日6点28分在Epoch 194048高度完成。当前以太坊累计质押量约1739万枚，质押率15.4%，年化收益率为5.16%。2022年9月，以太坊成功过渡到权益证明 (PoS) 共识机制，质押32个ETH即可成为验证者。此次上海升级增加了取款功能，用户可提取质押的ETH及相关收益。

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上海升级后，各方对于ETH未来走势观点不一

短期和长期趋势是不同的，加密对冲基金 Globe 3 Capital 首席投资官 Matt Lason 在其博客中表示，尽管 ETH 价格可能会下跌，但它应该是暂时的，而且没有一些人预测的那么严重。Lason 表示，他预计 ETH 到今年年底将达到 3,300 美元，理由是机构对该资产的需求将增加。

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宏观分析

【研报精选】下周CPI可能将决定美联储5月是否加息

尽管3月非农新增就业低于预期，但失业率出现下滑，劳动参与率提升，使市场认为美国劳动力市场仍然坚韧，对美联储5月继续加息的预期上升，交易员的注意力转向CPI。

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【研报精选】从美国3月CPI数据展望美联储政策前景

楼兰财经认为：核心通胀仍表现出较强的粘性。未来面临的主要干扰因素是美联储继续缩表过程中可能发生的金融风险事件。

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香港行情

【研报精选】a16z《加密货币状况》报告：美国正在失去Web3领先优势

a16z认为：我们仍然处于 Web3 的早期，但我们已经不再是开始。从短期的波动中退后一步，可以看到一个更可预测的模式：一个稳定的产品周期，这与媒体关注的金融周期明显不同。

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香港财政司司长陈茂波：Web3缺乏妥善的监管框架，将最大程度实现虚拟资产创新和发展

香港将推动虚拟资产市场可持续和负责地发展，在「相同业务、相同风险、相同规则」的监管思路下，让虚拟资产最大程度创新和发展。

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香港与脱钩：重返3万美元的比特币

4 月 11 日凌晨，比特币重返 3 万美元大关，跟风中香港概念龙头 CFX（Conflux）表现最强，再度接近历史高点，抖音 App 支持比特币价格查询的截图在各大社群流传，「比特币」关键字冲进微博热搜前二十，一时坊间甚至有「国内将重新支持 PoW 回归」的流言四起。

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İlgili Okumalar

Critical Moments in Bitcoin: Cost Zones That Demand Attention Have Been Identified!

Analytics firm Glassnode reported that reduced expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts, along with pricing in possible rate hikes, have suppressed risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market. The Fed's interest rate decisions are crucial for market direction. U.S. Treasury yields have surpassed returns from crypto carry trades, leading investors to favor cash and low-risk interest-bearing instruments over crypto assets. A strong U.S. dollar further weakens marginal demand for crypto. Bitcoin is currently trading below its most intensive cost basis level, with approximately $69,000 identified as the breakeven zone and significant resistance for short-term investors. For a stronger recovery, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $69,000 threshold with increased trading volume. Renewed active demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs is also deemed critical. According to Glassnode, the current Bitcoin decline represents the shallowest bear market in terms of price drawdown depth to date. However, based on previous cycle durations, this downturn may not be over yet. Spot trading volumes have fallen to multi-year lows, and sell-side order books have thinned, though many buy orders are placed significantly below current prices. Glassnode's risk indicator, Vector, signaled "risk off," suggesting a capital preservation mindset. The current market structure is being driven more by macroeconomic factors like monetary policy, bond yields, and dollar strength than by crypto-sector developments. Losing Bitcoin's support range of $62,000-$68,000, coupled with renewed exchange inflows, could negate the recovery scenario. Conversely, more favorable monetary policy, increased trading volume, a Bitcoin recovery above $69,000, and a resumption of spot ETF buying could signal a market turnaround.

cryptonews.ru15 dk önce

Critical Moments in Bitcoin: Cost Zones That Demand Attention Have Been Identified!

cryptonews.ru15 dk önce

Breaking News: Full Detailed Rationale and Explanation of the Fed's Interest Rate Decision Released!

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75 percent, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change. The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision passed with a 9-3 majority vote. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan dissented, voting in favor of a 25 basis point rate hike. This was the first meeting since 2016 where three regional Fed presidents voted against holding rates steady, signaling growing influence among members advocating for tighter monetary policy to combat inflation. The Fed's statement noted that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace despite high uncertainty, partly due to Middle East conflicts. It highlighted that growth in productivity and investment remained strong, employment gains have aligned with labor force growth, and the unemployment rate has remained relatively stable. The Fed also committed to maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. The statement emphasized that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. It noted that supply shocks, including in the energy sector, are adding to inflationary pressures. The Committee stated it will continue to closely monitor incoming data and risks in pursuit of its price stability goal. The dissenting members argued that the target range for the federal funds rate should have been increased by 25 basis points.

cryptonews.ru35 dk önce

Breaking News: Full Detailed Rationale and Explanation of the Fed's Interest Rate Decision Released!

cryptonews.ru35 dk önce

LATEST NEWS: Here is the FOMC statement released after interest rates were left unchanged!

At its July meeting, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged in the 3.50–3.75 percent range. The decision was approved by a vote of 9 to 3, with three policymakers dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike, signaling heightened internal support for tighter policy within the central bank. The dissenting votes underscored the hawkish stance of the decision. The Fed stated that U.S. economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace while inflation remains above the 2% target, partly due to recent shocks. The statement noted that job gains have kept pace with labor supply growth and the unemployment rate has remained low. It also highlighted that productivity and capital investment growth remain strong. The Federal Reserve affirmed it will continue to maintain ample reserve levels in the banking system. The FOMC stated it will keep closely monitoring incoming data and risks in pursuit of its goals of price stability and maximum employment.

cryptonews.ru45 dk önce

LATEST NEWS: Here is the FOMC statement released after interest rates were left unchanged!

cryptonews.ru45 dk önce

LATEST NEWS: Long-Awaited Fed Interest Rate Decision Announced! Here is Bitcoin's Initial Reaction

The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged as expected. All attention is now focused on the press conference by new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, scheduled for 21:00. Bitcoin's initial reaction to the rate decision is shown in the provided chart. Chairman Warsh, like his predecessor Jerome Powell, has emphasized controlling inflation, with some investors perceiving his stance as tougher than anticipated. While rate cuts were expected under Trump-appointed Warsh, market expectations for a potential rate hike by year-end have strengthened. Notably, Trump's frequent public criticism of Powell for not cutting rates fast enough has ceased since Warsh took office, despite no major shift in the Fed's decision-making approach. An investment strategist noted significant continuity between the two Fed chairs. *This is not investment advice.

cryptonews.ru45 dk önce

LATEST NEWS: Long-Awaited Fed Interest Rate Decision Announced! Here is Bitcoin's Initial Reaction

cryptonews.ru45 dk önce

The Fed's Interest Rate Decision is Inevitable! Former Senior Fed Advisor Reveals His Forecast for Today!

Former Federal Reserve senior advisor John Faust stated he does not expect the Fed to raise interest rates at the FOMC meeting concluding today. He argued the Fed will not try to win credibility by deliberately surprising markets. In his assessment, Faust noted that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has used strong rhetoric on restoring price stability but largely failed to share details on how he plans to achieve it. This information gap has led to various market scenarios. However, Faust believes the reality is simpler: Warsh positions himself as a pragmatic, tough-minded policymaker, placing high importance on monetary policy communication while showing flexibility regarding balance sheet reduction. Faust compared Warsh's approach to the "refined intuitive approach" used by former Chairman Alan Greenspan. Faust stated that, unlike strict policy rules, this approach does not yield clear-cut answers on rate decisions. In current conditions, both a 25-basis-point hike and waiting for the next meeting could be reasonably justified. Aligning with market expectations, Faust predicts the Fed will choose to wait today. He believes the benefit of waiting outweighs the negatives, partly because he agrees that deliberately surprising markets to boost credibility is not a valid factor. Faust also argued there is no substantial macroeconomic difference between hiking today and holding steady, as a 25-basis-point move over eight weeks alone is not economically decisive. He emphasized that the important aspect will not be the decision itself, but how it is explained to markets. Warsh has so far advocated forward-looking policy without clear guidance on economic forecasts or the likely rate path. Faust warned that if the Fed does not explicitly state grounds for a hike and opts to wait for more data, markets may misinterpret the decision's meaning. Regardless of today's outcome, how Warsh explains the policy decisions at the meeting and press conference may be the most critical information for investors.

cryptonews.ru1 saat önce

The Fed's Interest Rate Decision is Inevitable! Former Senior Fed Advisor Reveals His Forecast for Today!

cryptonews.ru1 saat önce

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