$30K BTC price stays valid as ‘boring’ Bitcoin heads into US jobs data

Cointelegraph2023-04-07 tarihinde yayınlandı2023-04-07 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

Traders agree that Bitcoin still lacks direction, but $25,000 and $30,000 remain targets once conditions change.

Bitcoin (BTC) stuck to a narrow trading range into April 7 as crypto analysts awaited the week’s main United States macroeconomic data.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

""

$30,000 or $25,000 for Bitcoin?


Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed another day’s ranging around $28,000 for BTC/USD.


The pair had shunned volatility over most of the week, but now faced nonfarm payroll (NFP) numbers as a final potential catalyst for risk assets.


“Expectations are that we’ll be seeing 3.6%, similar to last month. Based on the financial numbers of this week, I’d rather expect 3.7-3.8%,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, summarized about his expectations.


“Result; $DXY down, $BTC unchanged and indices down/up depending on how far the outlier will be.”


A further Twitter post argued that $30,000 remained on the table should bulls protect current support levels.


“Bitcoin remains in a boring state of mind. Consolidating for weeks, while old altcoins are breaking out,” he continued.


“I'm still looking at support here, through which $27,600 needs to sustain. If that's lost, $25,000-25,400 seems likely. Holding here through NFP -> $30,000 next.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/ Twitter


Fellow trader Crypto Tony agreed that the current trading range may nonetheless prove sticky.


“I bet we will be staring at this range for awhile. If we do range for awhile and Alts start to run, it only confirms the capital flow is in motion,” he forecast on the day.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/ Twitter

""

Popular trader Anbessa showed similar downside targets to Van de Poppe, eyeing $27,940 as an important intraday level to defend.


Bollinger bands portend BTC price volatility


Examining volatility, meanwhile, popular analyst HornHairs noted that Bollinger bands were offering a telltale sign that calm conditions were about to break.

“Bitcoin volatility contraction as tight as its been all year. The games shall begin shortly. Dust off your weapons of choice for the volatility ahead,” he advised.


An accompanying chart confirmed the Bollinger bands “squeezing” around spot price, reflecting the current tight range, with the implication that a challenge of the upper or lower band should soon begin.

BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp) with Bollinger bands. Source: TradingView

""

As Cointelegraph reported, 2023 has been a year of contrasting volatility phenomena, with BTC/USD gaining 40% in January but ending February almost exactly at its starting position.


March upside totaled 23%, while in April, Bitcoin is currently down 2.3%, according to statistics from Coinglass.

BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: Coinglass


İlgili Okumalar

Just Now, Anthropic Unveils Physical MCP: Claude Begins Controlling the Real World

Anthropic has announced the Model Hardware Standard (MHS), a new standard enabling AI agents like Claude to safely control physical devices. Building on the Model Context Protocol (MCP), MHS standardizes communication between AI agents and hardware such as microscopes, robotic arms, and lasers, marking a significant step for AI from the digital into the physical world. Developed in collaboration with HHMI Janelia Research Campus, MHS uses standardized drivers to translate basic commands (e.g., read, write) into a format any programmable device can understand. This drastically reduces integration time from weeks to hours or minutes and allows agents to discover and operate new devices using natural language tags that describe machine properties and safety limits. Agents can control devices via MCP, command-line interfaces, or APIs. They can sequence operations, monitor results, adjust parameters in real-time, and generate deterministic scripts for long-running tasks. Early tests show Claude interacting with hardware exploratively, like a scientist, learning to calibrate a laser and scripting the process. Early adopters and partners include AWS, Automata, Danaher, Doosan Robotics, and Tecan, who are integrating MHS support into their platforms. While promising, challenges remain: Claude's physical reasoning is limited, requiring expert oversight, and MHS currently only works with programmable hardware. Anthropic plans further refinements and broader device support before open-sourcing the standard.

marsbit10 dk önce

Just Now, Anthropic Unveils Physical MCP: Claude Begins Controlling the Real World

marsbit10 dk önce

History's Only Asset with a 100% Win Rate After 4 Years of Holding

**Title: The Only Asset with a 100% Win Rate Over Any 4-Year Holding Period** This article analyzes which major, freely-tradable assets have historically never produced a nominal loss over any rolling 4-year holding window. It concludes that only two distinct categories achieve this: ultra-low-risk contractual assets and Bitcoin. Among traditional risk assets, none maintain a perfect 4-year record. The S&P 500 had negative 4-year periods (e.g., 1929-1932: -64.8%). The Nasdaq 100 fell roughly 60% from 2000-2003. Gold saw a ~47.7% loss from 1981-1984. US real estate declined about 23.3% from 2007-2010. Even long-term US Treasury bonds (e.g., 2021-2024: -19.8%) and corporate bonds can produce 4-year losses due to interest rate and market price risks. In contrast, the first category achieving 100% nominal success includes assets like rolling 3-month US Treasury Bills, 4-year certificates of deposit (CDs), and US Treasuries held to maturity within 4 years. Their "guarantee" stems from contractual obligations and credit backing (e.g., FDIC insurance, US sovereign promise), not price appreciation. The sole exception in the high-risk category is Bitcoin. Analysis of daily data from 2010-2026 across 4,419 rolling 4-year windows shows a 100% positive return rate. The worst 4-year period (April 2021 to April 2025) still yielded a +32.6% total return (~7.3% CAGR). This record is unique because Bitcoin has no issuer, promises no cash flows, and has endured severe drawdowns (70-90%), yet its market price has always recovered within a 4-year span. The key distinction is the source of the "100%": contractual assets offer known, low nominal returns, while Bitcoin's record stems purely from historical price appreciation despite extreme volatility. The article suggests that for Bitcoin, the ability to hold for 4+ years is more critical than active trading strategies.

marsbit17 dk önce

History's Only Asset with a 100% Win Rate After 4 Years of Holding

marsbit17 dk önce

How One Article Moved 45 Billion: The Collapse of a 25-Year-Old 'AI Stock Guru'

This article details the dramatic rise and near-collapse of a hedge fund built by Leopold Aschenbrenner, a 24-year-old former OpenAI researcher. The fund, named Situational Awareness, amassed $45 billion in assets within two years. Its explosive growth stemmed from Aschenbrenner's influential 165-page manifesto predicting AGI's arrival by 2027 and his high-profile Silicon Valley connections. The fund employed an extremely aggressive strategy: high concentration and 400% leverage to bet long on AI infrastructure stocks while shorting legacy software firms. In July, this structure backfired when both sides of the trade reversed simultaneously—AI stocks plunged while shorted stocks rallied—triggering massive losses that nearly wiped out all equity. Major player Jane Street reportedly lost billions. The fund's leveraged public portfolio was ultimately sold at a discount to Citadel. The SEC is now investigating banks like Goldman Sachs for their role in facilitating the fund's high-leverage trades. The article compares this to past blow-ups like Archegos, highlighting systemic failures in risk management where the pursuit of short-term profits overrode due diligence. It questions whether such risky leverage concentrated in the AI sector, currently at record highs, poses a broader systemic threat. Ironically, Aschenbrenner, who studied AI safety at OpenAI, designed a fund structure prone to uncontrolled failure. Days after the crisis, he reportedly raised another $400 million for new investments.

marsbit32 dk önce

How One Article Moved 45 Billion: The Collapse of a 25-Year-Old 'AI Stock Guru'

marsbit32 dk önce

AI Accelerates Everything: Mathematics's Line of Defense Has Fallen, Physics is Already in AI's Crosshairs

This summer, the mathematics community was shaken as OpenAI's Astra model reportedly solved 10 long-standing open problems, and Claude Fable 5 found a potential counterexample to the Jacobian conjecture. This was followed by a major shift in physics: renowned physicist Gavin E. Crooks presented an open problem in stochastic thermodynamics to Claude, which the AI solved completely in days—a task that might take a skilled graduate student months. The problem concerned constraints on entropy production statistics under the Detailed Fluctuation Theorem (DFT), a core concept in non-equilibrium physics. Claude provided a unifying geometric answer: all possible DFT-compatible distributions correspond to a convex "moment body." Its key insight was that for a fixed "gap," the distribution is uniquely determined, making any general DFT distribution a mixture of these basic two-outcome distributions. This structure implies that for given lower-order moments, the nth moment only has a sharp lower bound, with no upper bound. Claude demonstrated that numerous previously published bounds on entropy production are merely low-dimensional projections or "shadows" of this single, unified convex body. The AI-authored paper offers a complete hierarchical characterization of the moment constraints. This case signifies a potential paradigm shift: AI is progressing from solving known problems to aiding in the exploration of fundamental, unsolved scientific questions, heralding an AI-accelerated era for physics.

marsbit32 dk önce

AI Accelerates Everything: Mathematics's Line of Defense Has Fallen, Physics is Already in AI's Crosshairs

marsbit32 dk önce

İşlemler

Spot
活动图片