The chances of the CLARITY Act, a crucial piece of legislation for the crypto industry, being passed before August 7th are dwindling. This is the day the U.S. Senate goes on recess. According to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, it is unlikely that debates, amendments, and all necessary procedures can be completed by that time. Moreover, senators have other issues that need to be resolved before the recess.
Prediction markets have also lowered expectations regarding the bill's passage in 2026. Traders on Polymarket believe the probability of the law passing has fallen to 35%, compared to a peak of 82% in February.
Despite the apparent lack of time, lawmakers continue to discuss changes to the CLARITY Act. Amendments concerning ethical standards for digital asset transactions involving government officials have already been added to the bill. These amendments were made in response to senators' concerns about cryptocurrency projects linked to President Donald Trump and his family.
If the law is ultimately passed, starting January 20, 2029, government officials and the President would be prohibited from issuing digital assets or sponsoring their issuance, but they would be allowed to own cryptocurrencies.
Earlier, the editorial staff of Happy Coin News reported that, according to Galaxy Digital analysts, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 has dropped to 30%.
Amidst the amendments and delays in passing the law, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has not ruled out moving the business outside the United States.
