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The passage of the CLARITY Act, a crucial bill for the crypto industry, faces further delays and diminishing odds due to the upcoming U.S. Senate recess on August 7th. Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated there is insufficient time for debates, amendments, and necessary procedures before the break. Prediction markets on Polymarket have lowered the likelihood of the bill passing in 2026 to 35%, a sharp drop from a February peak of 82%. Analysts from Galaxy Digital have similarly reduced their estimate to 30%. Despite the time crunch, lawmakers continue to discuss amendments. Recent changes include new ethics rules for government officials dealing with digital assets, a response to concerns over crypto projects linked to former President Donald Trump and his family. If passed, starting January 20, 2029, the act would prohibit government officials, including the President, from issuing or sponsoring digital assets, though ownership would remain permitted. Amid these legislative delays and amendments, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has suggested the possibility of moving the company's business outside the United States.

After posting Q2 FY2026 results, Qualcomm and Arm both saw their shares decline, reflecting the impact of memory price increases on the smartphone chip sector. Qualcomm's revenue of $9.95B slightly beat expectations, but EPS of $2.21 fell short. More concerning was its guidance for next quarter, with EPS projections below analyst estimates. The company directly attributed a >$1.50 per share annual EPS headwind to rising memory costs and supply constraints in Android phones, prompting planned price hikes. While automotive revenue grew 61% and is approaching one-third of phone revenue, the mobile segment declined 20%. Qualcomm also confirmed a significant reduction in its modem share for the upcoming iPhone and outlined a plan for data center revenue to replace all Apple-related income by FY2027. Arm's results surpassed expectations with revenue of $1.29B and EPS of $0.45, and its guidance was also strong. However, its stock fell. Key concerns included royalty revenue failing to set a new record and a downward revision to full-year royalty growth guidance from ~20% to the high-teens, citing weak smartphone demand and high memory prices. Despite robust growth in its data center business, Arm's premium valuation (over 100x forward P/E) means even beating expectations isn't enough to push the stock higher, as any sign of uncertainty is magnified. Ongoing global antitrust investigations add another risk factor. The situation highlights a broader shift. Memory price surges, which boosted Samsung's profits, are now pressuring chip designers. Meanwhile, the semiconductor sector saw significant corrections in July, with the hardest-hit stocks often being those with the biggest AI-driven gains year-to-date. Qualcomm, lacking such a premium, was an exception.

The U.S. Senate has taken a key step regarding the CLARITY Act, which could shape the future of the U.S. crypto market. On July 29, Senators Tom Tillis and Ruben Gallego finalized amendments to the bill's "conflict of interest" rules, one of its most contentious aspects. The bipartisan bill aims to tighten restrictions on high-level federal officials' ties to digital assets. The new text, crafted as an alternative to a White House-endorsed ethics code, is expected to impose stricter rules limiting officials' ability to issue or directly participate in digital asset projects. However, with Congress entering an August recess and the revised text not yet reviewed by much of the Senate, the bill's timeline is uncertain. Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated a procedural vote could occur between July 29 and August 1 but expressed doubt the full bill could pass before the break. The House-approved CLARITY Act, passed in July 2025, has been under Senate negotiation for over a year. Key goals of the CLARITY Act include clarifying jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, setting rules for digital commodity spot markets, and addressing topics like stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit financing. The stablecoin yield provisions could significantly impact U.S.-based DeFi protocols, exchanges, and issuers, affecting their global competitiveness. The outcome is being closely watched by both the U.S. and global digital asset markets.

The Consumer Technology Association (CTA), representing over 1,300 tech companies, is urging the U.S. Senate to pass the CLARITY Act to establish clear federal rules for digital assets. CTA argues regulatory certainty will spur investment, enhance consumer protection, and bolster U.S. leadership in blockchain innovation. The House already approved the bill with bipartisan support in 2025. In the Senate, negotiations are ongoing, with debates centered on ethics rules and market oversight. Senator Cynthia Lummis released an updated bill text, but critics like Senator Elizabeth Warren warn it leaves conflicts of interest unresolved. Political pressure is mounting ahead of a potential vote, with former officials expressing confidence in its eventual passage. A key final debate involves stablecoins, as banking executives warn against allowing payment stablecoins to function like interest-bearing accounts, fearing deposit losses could impact community lending. Advocacy groups are also pledging to score senators' votes on the bill, increasing election-year pressure.

The head of Ukraine's National Securities and Stock Market Commission (NКЦБФР), Alexey Semenyuk, disclosed that the draft law on virtual assets is approximately 90% complete, with the final text expected in August. However, the bill's parliamentary passage will follow later. Key agreed-upon provisions include establishing the NКЦБФР as the primary regulator, with a clearly defined role for the National Bank, and classifying virtual assets in line with the EU's MiCA regulation. Licensing rules for service providers, prudential requirements, and a special regime for wartime operations are also settled. Major unresolved issues remain, notably the taxation framework for cryptocurrency transactions and the legal status of virtual assets in criminal and enforcement proceedings. Semenyuk noted these areas, outside the commission's direct competence, are progressing the slowest. Consultations on the post-enactment transition period are ongoing. Work on the legislation has spanned several years. The bill passed its first reading in September 2025 but faced significant delays due to thousands of proposed amendments. Officials anticipate the finalized law could take effect from January 1, 2027.