Bitunix Analyst: The True Test for Risk Assets Comes from Capital, Not Conflict

07/06 09:00

On July 6, global markets continued the trend of 'cooling risk events and repricing liquidity.' OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 188,000 barrels per day in August, while negotiations between the U.S. and Iran remain open, and transportation through the Strait of Hormuz continues to recover, further reducing energy supply risks. On the other hand, although the Russia-Ukraine conflict persists, market attention is gradually shifting towards a new round of diplomatic negotiations potentially driven by Trump, as well as how fiscal and monetary policies of various countries will affect global capital flows in the second half of the year. At the macro level, more signals of divergence are emerging. The European Central Bank believes that the decline in oil prices has cooled inflation, while Germany is preparing to increase borrowing due to lower-than-expected fiscal revenues. Japan still faces pressures from a weak yen and interest rate differentials, while companies like Micron, Samsung, and Infineon continue to ramp up investments in AI and semiconductors, indicating that global capital is still concentrated in AI infrastructure rather than fully returning to high-risk assets. In the cryptocurrency market, capital remains conservative. In the past week, there has been a net outflow of approximately $275 million from cryptocurrency ETFs, reflecting that even with some easing of geopolitical risks, institutional capital has not actively replenished its positions. Currently, the market is more focused on whether global liquidity will improve again, rather than on short-term events themselves, and changes in ETF capital will remain an important indicator of market risk appetite. Looking ahead, if oil prices continue to stay low and geopolitical tensions do not escalate further, market focus will gradually return to global capital costs, the monetary policies of various countries, and whether AI capital expenditures can be sustained. Before new incremental capital enters the market, the cryptocurrency market may continue to consolidate within a range, waiting for the next significant shift in capital flow.

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