Morgan Stanley: AI Job Replacement Effects Still Limited but Increasingly Significant

On August 20, Morgan Stanley economists stated in a report that the proportion of jobs in the U.S. replaced by AI remains relatively small, but this trend is becoming increasingly evident. By June 2026, the impact of AI replacement on the U.S. unemployment rate is expected to be at most about 15 basis points, up from 10 basis points in December 2025. Signs of replacement are still most pronounced among young workers.