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06/23 10:04Бычий

Bitcoin Will Drop Below $60K ‘Very Soon’ Amid Yen

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Bitcoin Will Drop Below $60K ‘Very Soon’ Amid Yen Carry Trade Risks Key Points: Bitcoin is retesting $60,000 as USD/JPY nears the same danger zone that preceded the August 2024 carry-trade unwind. A sudden yen rebound could force leveraged traders to sell risk assets, reviving the same deleveraging pressure that hit BTC in August 2024. Bitcoin’s bear flag breakdown below $63,000 puts $59,000 first, then $55,000–$55,300 as the next downside target. Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of another macro-driven breakdown as the yen carry trade risk that rattled global markets in August 2024 returns to focus. Bitcoin fell near $62,800 on Tuesday, down approximayely 7% from its June highs as traders reacted to weakness across Asian markets and renewed concerns over the Japanese yen carry trade. The pressure comes as USD/JPY trades near 161–162, close to levels that previously triggered heavy concern from Japanese authorities. Japan’s previous intervention, worth about 11.7 trillion yen, or roughly $72–73 billion, has largely failed to keep the yen stronger. A sudden yen rebound can force investors to unwind yen-funded trades. In simple terms, investors borrow cheap yen, sell it for dollars and buy higher-yielding assets, including equities, credit and other risk-sensitive assets. When the yen rises quickly, those trades become expensive to maintain, forcing traders to sell assets to raise cash and repay yen liabilities. Bitcoin suffered from that same deleveraging pressure in August 2024. At the time, Japan’s Nikkei had tumbled nearly 20%, the S&P 500 had fallen more than 5%, and Bitcoin had slid around 15% as the unwind of crowded trades hit global markets. Nikkei also suffered a brutal 12% one-day crash, its worst session since 1987.

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