Mr.Arshman

06/19 16:09

Bitcoin Trades 15% Below Critical On-Chain Level A

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Bitcoin has stabilized after a sharp selloff that coincided with rising geopolitical tensions and a broad retreat in risk assets. The recovery has eased some of the market stress seen earlier this month, yet blockchain data suggests investors are still navigating conditions historically associated with bear markets. On-chain data analytics firm Glassnode’s June 17 market report showed bitcoin rebounding after a sharp June decline that pushed prices to their lowest levels in months. Despite the recovery, the asset remains significantly below the True Market Mean, a key on-chain benchmark used to distinguish bull and bear market regimes. “The True Market Mean tracks the average acquisition price of actively transacted coins, and historically serves as the threshold between bear and bull market regimes,” Glassnode explained. The firm estimates the metric at $77,200, well above the current market price. Glassnode stated: “Currently at $77.2k, it sits roughly 15% above spot near $65.6k, placing the market firmly in discount territory.” Recent buyers remain under pressure even after the bounce. Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), a metric that compares the current value of coins held by recent buyers with the price they paid for them, improved from 0.81 to 0.90 but remained below the 1.0 break-even threshold. The cohort’s estimated cost basis was near $72,600, leaving newer holders with unrealized losses of roughly 10%. Profitability data also remained weak. The 30-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio stood at 0.53, showing realized losses continued to outweigh gains. Capital flows have improved but remain negative. Realized Cap fell 1.45% over 90 days to $1.07 trillion, though the seven-day change improved to negative 0.18%, showing outflows have slowed. Glassnode detailed: “The conditions required before a cred

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