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02/07 17:18

Bitcoin Traders Anticipate ‘Huge’ US Employment Da

Bitcoin Traders Anticipate ‘Huge’ US Employment Data as BTC Price Risks $95K Drop

Bitcoin remained lower on February 7 as forecast markets warned of a “huge hit” to US employment.

US Employment Data Threatens New Bitcoin Headwinds

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hovering around $97,000 after falling 3.5% the day before.

US jobless claims came in slightly higher than expected, and while that’s theoretically good for risk assets, Bitcoin was in no mood to celebrate. Looking ahead, market commentators were expecting further labor market turmoil related to employment.

“Are we ready for a huge hit to the employment report tomorrow?” asked trading resource The Kobeissi Letter in a post on X on February 6.

 Kobeissi cited upcoming data on jobs added in January. The widening divergence between official estimates and Kalshi’s odds means more risk pressure could emerge before the weekend.

A stronger-than-expected labor market expansion would have policy implications, allowing the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer given the headwinds from risk assets.

“Currently, forecast markets expect the U.S. economy to add 238,000 jobs in January, according to Kalshi. In fact, there’s a 28% chance that more than 300,000 jobs will be added in January,” the post continued.

“This is WAY above the Wall Street median expectation of 169,000 jobs. If the U.S. economy adds more than 300,000 jobs, it would be the first time since March 2024. Forecast markets see a strong start to the labor market in 2025.  Tomorrow’s employment report will be huge.”

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool underscored the lack of confidence in markets for further easing in the first quarter.

Even a small 0.25% rate cut at the next Fed meeting in March currently attracts odds of just 14.5%.

BTC Price Forecasts Show Liquidity Hunt Is Back

Meanwhile, BTC price action has been within a well-established range with clear liquidity bands, reducing the likelihood of significant volatility.

“Short-term liquidity is surrounding the current price, so it wouldn’t surprise me if both sides start to run away before any real movement occurs,” trader Mark Cullen explained to X subscribers.

“With both weekly data showing significant liquidity to the upside, I’m guessing there will be a liquidity run through 95k and then a rally into significant areas of interest above last month’s highs.”

 Another trader, Skew, agreed, suggesting that an external volatility catalyst is needed for a stronger BTC price trend.

“Another very tightly held market until resolution (usually macro driven),” X wrote on the Bina spot market.

“The market is currently quoting a price range for today’s expected price action ($100k – $95k).”

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