In November 2024, Ripple established strong bullish dominance after XRP broke into the $2 region for the first time in its history. Since reclaiming that level, price action initially held above $2 and later pushed to an all-time high of $3.68.
That bullish phase lasted for more than a year.
However, as of the 15th of December, XRP slipped below the $2 threshold, marking a shift toward growing bearish dominance.
AMBCrypto outlined the factors behind this reversal and what they could mean for the altcoin’s outlook.
Long-term investors show fading conviction
One of the earliest signs of building bearish momentum came from long-term holders. These investors are defined as addresses that have held Ripple [XRP] for more than 155 days without transacting.
Glassnode data showed that holders aged five to seven years realized roughly $721.5 million in profits on the 11th of December. At that time, XRP closed near $2.03, while the average cost basis hovered around $0.40.
When profit-taking occurs with such a wide gap between cost basis and market price, it signals a lack of long-term conviction in the asset’s future upside.d
Long-term holders are not alone in their decision to exit. Ripple Co-Founder Chris Larsen had sold more than 200 million XRP months earlier.
As veteran holders exited, concerns grew over the altcoin’s longer-term upside narrative.
Institutional investors step back
Institutional investors have also begun to retreat, as reflected in a steady decline in purchasing activity over the past month.
U.S. XRP Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a sharp shift in flows. Buying Volume fell from $246.05 million in November to just $8.54 million by the close of trading on the 16th of December.
This represented a 96.49% drop in purchasing activity, highlighting deteriorating sentiment among traditional investors.
Bearish pressure has also spread across the broader market.
XRP Exchange Reserves climbed to 2.66 billion tokens, indicating that more supply is readily available for potential sell-offs.
If those reserves were to enter the market, the price could face additional pressure below the $1.88 press-time level.
Notably, institutional outflows began earlier than retail selling. Retail traders appeared to react after long-term holders started exiting.
If that selling persists, downside risks could accelerate.
Whales remain largely inactive
Whales, investors that control large liquidity clusters capable of influencing market direction, have shown a muted response so far.
The Whale-to-Exchange Flow metric, which tracks the volume of coins moved between whale wallets and exchanges, has dropped to zero. This indicated an absence of significant whale-driven activity.
The last notable whale movement occurred on the 25th of October. Shortly after, XRP fell from around $2.6 to roughly $2.2.
Since then, whale behavior contrasted sharply with the active July–October period. If whales resume moving funds, historical patterns suggest renewed downside risk.
Even so, Spot market data showed stronger taker buy activity. That demand helped stabilize XRP’s price action in the short term.
Final Thoughts
- XRP’s recent weakness reflected a broader confidence reset rather than a single catalyst.
- With long-term holders and institutions stepping back, price direction may depend on whether fresh demand replaces exiting supply.
