XRP’s price slid again on Monday, extending a broader crypto pullback that has pushed the token toward a key psychological threshold.
Analysts now warn XRP could fall below $1 as investors rotate into safer assets.
The decline comes even as XRP has been cited in a new Federal Reserve staff paper proposing a dedicated “crypto” risk class for derivatives models — a move some are hailing as bullish while analysts cautioned the short-term impact.
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XRP Price May “Normalize” Toward $1 or Lower
Adam Spatacco, a crypto analyst writing for The Motley Fool, said XRP’s real-world utility may not be enough to support its valuation during periods of macroeconomic stress, when liquidity and risk positioning often overwhelm fundamentals.
“During periods of macroeconomic uncertainty, the idea of real-world utility — which XRP has achieved — can be overshadowed by broader liquidity flows,” Spatacco wrote on Feb. 15.
He added that the opportunity cost of holding volatile assets can reach “a breaking point” and fuel heavy selling pressure.
Spatacco argued that if XRP’s price continues to slide, it may signal that enthusiasm around the token’s product-market fit is no longer sufficient to sustain a premium valuation.
Instead, he said, investors may increasingly value XRP more like an infrastructure utility play, demanding measurable growth in market share and adoption.
Given this background, the analyst said he expected XRP to be “trading for $1 or even lower,” he wrote.
Fed Staff Paper Proposes New “Crypto” Risk Class — But Impact Unclear
XRP’s downturn is unfolding alongside a wave of social media chatter that the Federal Reserve has “added XRP” into a new category in the global risk model banks use to trade derivatives.
The Federal Reserve staff proposal details how it would create a dedicated “crypto” asset class under the ISDA Standard Initial Margin Model (SIMM), splitting digital assets into categories such as pegged tokens (stablecoins) and floating assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP.
Currently, many institutions force crypto exposure into legacy risk buckets such as commodities or foreign exchange.
Although online reactions celebrated the proposal as a major institutional milestone, analysts emphasized that it does not constitute regulatory approval or endorsement.
CCN analyst Victor Olanrewaju said that while it may be bullish for XRP’s long-term forecast, it is unlikely to make any “real short-term impact.”
“Participation in the market is really low, so it is unlikely to positively impact the technical setup,” he said, adding that sentiment also remains low.
Grok Spreads Bullish XRP Price Forecasts on X
Adding to the recent noise, Grok — the AI assistant integrated into Elon Musk’s X — has drawn attention for generating aggressive bullish XRP price forecasts in response to user prompts.
In two instances involving X influencer Cobb, Grok was asked to “edit” XRP price graphics to the price it will be in December 2026 and March 2026.
In the both posts, Grok edited the price to $15.57, sparking a myriad of celebratory replies from X users.
Of course, AI-generated predictions are not investment research and are often prompt-driven, possibly reflecting wider engagement dynamics.
In order for XRP to reach $15.57 by the end of March, it would require a massive surge in usage and buying.
While it’s not impossible, the size and speed of the move would need to put XRP close to Bitcoin-like dominance levels in an environment that is currently primarily risk-avoidant.
Ripple CTO Pushes Back On $100
Two weeks ago, Ripple’s former chief technology head David Schwartz cast doubt on bullish forecasts of XRP reaching $50 to $100.
“I don’t feel comfortable saying something like that,” Schwartz wrote.
“While I don’t think it’s likely, I didn’t think it was likely that XRP would ever hit $0.25.”
However, he noted that crypto prices have repeatedly defied his expectations.
“I started selling XRP at $0.10 because it seemed insane. I remember when Bitcoin hitting $100 seemed like an impossible dream,” he said.
