In Q4 2025, Bitcoin dropped by 30% after falling below $90k. This was typical of a pullback during bull runs, but the correction also cracked a key support, prompting some renowned analysts to turn bearish in the mid-term.
This raises the question – At what level will the bear market condition be applicable, and are we currently in one?
For pseudonymous analyst Jackis, even a further drop to $70k won’t mark a “typical bear market” but a “macro range for 2025.” For him, the current weakness is a “temporary pause on macro trend.” He added,
“But unlike 2022 or Q1 of this year, this drop isn’t driven fundamentally or by a broader risk leg but rather exchange of hands between OGs and institutions.”
BTC struggles below key support
However, on the price charts, the current Bitcoin price action is more than just a monthly range. Historically, the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA, blue line) has served as the primary support for bull markets.
A sustained stay below the 50W EMA marked the past bear market conditions.
The extended correction below $100k in mid-November pushed price action below this key bull market support. Unless reclaimed, the bullish uptrend could be at risk.
So, a drop to $60k-$70k would mark a potential bottoming or reversal from a “bear market” based on the 50W EMA.
The zone would be the previous breakout level that eased BTC’s deeper corrections per historical data. Even ex-Ark Invest’s lead, Chris Burniske, echoed this outlook.
BTC losses near bear market regimes
From an on-chain data perspective, press time levels seemed to be near full bear market capitulation conditions. The aSOPR metric, which tracks if coins are being sold at a profit or loss and sentiment, was close to slipping below 1.
Previous dips below 1 reinforced bear market capitulations and also marked market reversals.
The same outlook was reinforced by the Total Supply in Loss. About 7 million BTC supply is in loss now – The highest during this cycle. It was close to the 8-10 million BTC supply at loss that marked previous bearish regimes, noted Glassnode.
“This pattern closely mirrors early transitional phases of prior cycles, where mounting investor frustration preceded a shift toward more pronounced bearish conditions and intensified capitulation at lower prices.”
Overall, the current $88k level and 30% dip have put the market under extreme stress. A further price drop to $60k-$70k could trigger losses that mirror past bearish regimes.
Final Thoughts
- Bitcoin could trigger past bear market capitulation if it drops to $60k-$70k.
- Reclaiming $98k-$100k or the 50W EMA could reinforce the bullish uptrend.
