Wall Street Morning Report: CPI Lands Mildly, U.S. Stocks Stage Deep V-Shaped Reversal, AI Cloud, Storage, and Optical Communications Collectively Surge

marsbitPublicado em 2026-08-13Última atualização em 2026-08-13

Resumo

Wall Street Morning Report: US stocks staged a deep V-shaped recovery following a mild CPI report, with AI cloud, storage, and optical communication sectors leading the rally. Major indexes were mixed: the Dow dipped slightly, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained, nearing record highs. The July CPI data met expectations, with core inflation hitting its slowest pace since March 2021, further reducing expectations for a September Fed rate hike. Market focus shifted decisively towards AI infrastructure. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 2.49%. AI cloud providers NEBIUS and CoreWeave surged 34% and 19% respectively on strong earnings and massive order backlogs. Optical communication stocks like Lumentum and Coherent also posted significant gains. The storage sector rallied broadly, with SK Hynix and Micron among the advancers. Meanwhile, major tech giants saw divergence. Nvidia rose over 3%, while Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta closed lower. In commodities, gold and silver remained strong, while oil prices retreated as markets awaited developments in the Strait of Hormuz. The US federal budget deficit widened significantly in July, raising long-term concerns. Key upcoming events include US PPI data, Sandisk's investor day, and the SEC's 13F filings deadline, which will reveal institutional holdings.

From Monday to Friday mornings, focusing on macro trends, U.S. stocks, AI, precious metals, and crude oil, using data to review the market and trends to seize opportunities, produced by PANews.

U.S. Stocks Close Higher, CPI Data Fails to Spark Inflation Concerns

The three major indexes closed mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.04%, declining for the third consecutive session, dragged down by Home Depot and Microsoft. The S&P 500 rose 0.26%, approaching a record high. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.54%, with AI hardware, storage, optical communications, and new cloud computing re-emerging as the main themes driving the market.

U.S. July CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year; core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, all in line with expectations, with the core year-over-year growth being the slowest since March 2021. The data, combined with last week's weak non-farm payrolls, formed a one-two punch. Money market odds for a September rate hike have dropped to 40%, with the probability of holding rates steady rising to about 60%.

  • Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to most likely hold steady this year;
  • Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner also noted that unless subsequent data changes significantly, holding steady in September remains the base case;
  • CICC pointed out that U.S. inflation may have entered a new phase, with the driving force shifting from supply shocks like tariffs and oil prices to demand expansion driven by AI investment, potentially prolonging the inflation duration.

Gold continued its strong momentum, holding above $4,400, up over 9% in August. Silver showed even greater elasticity, rising about 14% in August, marking its eighth gain in eleven trading sessions, with spot prices hovering around $66. Citi reiterated its strong bullish view on silver, expecting prices to potentially rise to $90/ounce in the next 6-12 months, provided the Strait crisis de-escalates and the Fed turns more dovish, with investment demand picking up the slack from weak industrial consumption.

The oil market finally saw a breather, with WTI briefly falling below $81 and Brent below $87; WTI had risen about 11% over five consecutive sessions prior. The market is waiting for actual progress on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency warned that amid ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, the global oil supply deficit this quarter could reach 1.8 million barrels per day, more than double previous forecasts, with 2026 potentially seeing the largest deficit in five years.

Trump claimed the U.S. has "complete control" over the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping data shows daily traffic is only a dozen vessels, far below the pre-war 130. Iran, through sporadic attacks, is creating a "fear factor," effectively controlling the passage routes. War risk insurance premiums have skyrocketed to 10% of the ship's value, costing millions per large oil tanker transit. eToro's Bret Kenwell warned that if oil surpasses $100, it could force the Fed to reassess its policy path.

The U.S. fiscal situation is also concerning. Treasury data showed the federal budget deficit for July reached $432.3 billion, widening about 48% year-over-year, the largest monthly deficit since March 2021 and a record high for that month. The cumulative deficit for the first 10 months of the fiscal year is nearly $1.8 trillion. The CBO projects the deficit will increase to $2.1 trillion for FY2026. Debt interest payments are becoming an underlying pressure keeping long-term rates elevated. So far this fiscal year, the U.S. has paid $1.17 trillion in interest on its $39.9 trillion debt, with net interest expense reaching $931 billion. CRFB President Maya MacGuineas stated bluntly that a deficit exceeding $2 trillion when the economy isn't in recession "is not normal."

AI Lacks Not Demand but Compute! Cloud and Optical Communications Surge, Storage Follows, Giants Diverge

Last night, funds clearly rotated out of traditional software and some Mag 7 giants into cloud compute, semiconductors, storage, and optical communications. Goldman Sachs data shows hedge funds continued net selling software stocks, while long-term money bought the dip, but the market price action ultimately sided with the former.

Conversely, the AI supply chain "selling shovels" heated up comprehensively. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.49%; SK Hynix up 9.01%, Seagate up 7.03%, SanDisk up 5.76%, Micron up 4.92%, Western Digital up 3.69%; in optical communications, Lumentum surged 13.63%, Coherent up 8.24%, Credo up 8.26%, Corning up 5.18%.

Cloud compute became the wildest sector of the day, with NEBIUS skyrocketing 34.14%, CoreWeave up 19.28%, IREN up 9.86%, Roundhill Neocloud ETF up 17.26%. CoreWeave's order backlog reached $104 billion, Nebius AI cloud sales soared 514% year-over-year. The market is once again believing that AI infrastructure demand not only exists but is already translating into contracts and revenue.

Morgan Stanley's Michelle Weaver offered a more critical industry insight: Enterprises are starting to see quantifiable returns from AI applications, but the real bottlenecks are shifting to compute power, electricity, labor, and policy. About 25% of S&P 500 companies can now quantify AI investment returns, up from just 14% a year ago, signaling AI demand is moving from narrative to realization.

DeepSeek V4 Pro official version quietly launched on the evening of August 12, with the model version switched to DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813; simultaneously, SpaceX AI released Grok 4.6. Their competition is no longer just about "who chats smarter," but shifting toward Agent execution capabilities, complex programming, knowledge work, vision tasks, and token cost. Grok 4.6 API pricing starts at just $2 per million input tokens and $6 per million output tokens, with SpaceX AI claiming the price is about half that of other frontier models.

The real pressure this places on OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google is that as model capabilities rapidly commoditize, AI companies' moats may shift from the models themselves to compute power, ecosystem, and commercialization capabilities.

Specific Company Actions and Stock Moves:

  • NEBIUS closed up 34.14%: Q2 revenue exploded 454% year-over-year, AI cloud sales surged 514%, and it signed four contracts averaging over $10 billion each. Approximately 24% short interest further amplified the post-earnings short squeeze, driving the stock from around $193 to $247 rapidly.

  • CoreWeave surged 19.28%: Q2 revenue more than doubled year-over-year, order backlog reached $104 billion, and it raised full-year capital expenditure guidance. Strong orders and compute demand became core reasons for renewed bets on AI infrastructure.

  • Cerebras Systems jumped 11.63%, but after-hours it once plunged over 17% due to earnings structure issues. Core Q2 revenue grew 103% year-over-year, cloud service revenue soared 287%, but core hardware revenue fell 23% year-over-year, revealing hardware sales volatility. The company announced a "disaggregated inference" solution with AMD and AWS to boost throughput 5x and raised full-year guidance;

  • Cloud computing sector rallied violently: IREN surged 9.86%, Applied Digital up 4.92%, HUT 8 up 2.24%, Neocloud ETF up 17.26%.

  • AI infrastructure player Super Micro Computer soared 19.02%: Q4 revenue nearly doubled to $11.12 billion, net profit skyrocketed 503% year-over-year, gross margin improved sharply to 17.5% from 9.5% a year ago, and guidance for the next fiscal year far exceeded market consensus expectations;

  • Lumentum skyrocketed 13.63%: Q4 revenue grew 109% year-over-year, non-GAAP EPS surged 267%, with revenue and profit guidance for the next quarter comprehensively surpassing Wall Street expectations by 8% and 16% respectively.

  • Coherent rose 8.24%, but after-hours it fell about 3% due to excessive short-term gains and high expectations. Q4 revenue increased 34% year-over-year to $2.05 billion, gross margin improved to 40.2%, and next quarter guidance was also stronger than expected, but high valuation triggered profit-taking on the news.

  • Optical communications concept stocks broadly higher, Credo Technology up 8.26%, Corning up 5.18%, AAOI up 2.79%, Marvell Technology up 2.25%.

  • Storage sector broadly higher: Roundhill Storage ETF (DRAM) surged 7.68%, SK Hynix jumped 9.01%, Seagate Technology up 7.03%, Western Digital up 3.69%, SanDisk up 5.76% (the company is about to hold its first post-spinoff Investor Day for 2026), Micron Technology closed up 4.92% (facing a new patent infringement lawsuit from Netlist).

  • SpaceX surged 9.65%, market cap reaching $1.93 trillion. Musk's SpaceX AI officially released Grok 4.6, focusing on complex programming and long-duration Agent tasks, with API pricing at half that of comparable frontier models.

  • Other giant moves: NVIDIA closed up 3.03%, hitting its highest closing price since June, with a total market cap of $5.42 trillion; Cisco Q4 revenue and EPS both beat expectations, with hyperscale cloud AI orders reaching $4 billion, but the stock initially rose 8% after-hours before reversing to a 6% loss; Apple closed down 0.87%, institutional reports indicate iPhone 18 Pro Max component costs may increase substantially by $300 due to parts inflation. Additionally, reports suggest Apple plans to pay publishers hundreds of millions for news content to improve the AI-powered Siri launching later this year; Google closed down 0.18%, announcing a reorganization of DeepMind, moving some teams into the enterprise structure to accelerate Gemini commercialization. Meanwhile, affected by memory shortages, the newly launched Pixel 11 series saw price hikes of $100 across the board. Meta plunged 3.38%, Microsoft fell 2.26%, Amazon dropped 1.83%, Tesla declined 1.59%.

Upcoming Focus:

August 13 (Thursday)

  • 20:30 U.S. July PPI: PPI will reveal whether business costs continue to pass through to end consumers. If PPI is hot, even with mild CPI, market fears of inflation resurgence may arise; if PPI cools in tandem, the "disinflation + easing policy pressure" trade will strengthen further.

  • 21:00 SanDisk Investor Day: Market focus is on NAND supply/demand, enterprise SSD, capital expenditure, high-bandwidth memory roadmap, and long-term margin targets. As storage stocks have been under pressure recently, SanDisk's messaging will directly impact sentiment for Micron, Western Digital, SK Hynix, and China's storage chain.

  • JD.com Q2 earnings call, SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor results.

August 14 (Friday)

  • U.S. SEC 13F Quarterly Holdings Filing Deadline: Filings will disclose U.S. hedge fund and institutional long stock holdings as of June 30. Market focus is on whether large institutions increased allocations to AI, optical communications, power, energy, gold, and financial stocks; however, 13F data has about a six-week lag and only covers long positions, not fully reflecting hedge funds' true risk exposure.

  • Applied Materials earnings after U.S. market close: Market focus is on DRAM, advanced packaging, wafer fab equipment demand, and changes in China orders.

  • Bill Gates visits South Korea, discusses SMR collaboration with SK Group and HD Hyundai: Market focus is on nuclear energy, small modular reactors combined with AI data center power demand. If cooperation details advance, it will reinforce the "AI power infrastructure" investment thesis.

Perguntas relacionadas

QAccording to the article, what was the main reason for the stock market's recovery and the surge in AI infrastructure, storage, and optical communication sectors?

AThe main reason was the release of the mild CPI data, which showed US inflation cooling as expected. This reduced market concerns about persistent inflation and aggressive Fed actions, boosting risk appetite. Combined with strong earnings reports and robust demand signals from companies in the AI cloud, semiconductor, and infrastructure sectors, capital flowed into these areas.

QWhat specific data points from the July CPI report did the article highlight, and how did they influence market expectations for Fed policy?

AThe article highlighted that US July CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year. All figures met expectations, with core year-over-year growth being the slowest since March 2021. This data, combined with the previous week's weak non-farm payrolls, caused money markets to lower the probability of a September Fed rate hike to about 40%, while the probability of holding rates steady rose to around 60%.

QWhich two major AI models were released or updated recently according to the article, and what is the significance of their competition?

AThe two models are DeepSeek's V4 Pro official version (DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813) and SpaceX AI's Grok 4.6. Their competition is shifting beyond just 'chat intelligence' to focus on Agent execution capabilities, complex programming, knowledge work, visual tasks, and token costs. Grok 4.6's aggressive API pricing (half the cost of other frontier models, according to SpaceX AI) signifies a trend of rapid commodification of model capabilities, potentially shifting AI companies' moats from the models themselves to factors like compute power, ecosystem, and commercialization capabilities.

QName at least three companies mentioned in the article that reported exceptionally strong quarterly performance, leading to significant stock price increases, and specify their reported growth metrics.

A1) NEBIUS: Its stock rose 34.14%. Q2 revenue soared 454% year-over-year, with AI cloud sales up 514%. 2) CoreWeave: Its stock rose 19.28%. Q2 revenue more than doubled year-over-year, and its order backlog reached $104 billion. 3) Super Micro Computer: Its stock surged 19.02%. Fiscal Q4 revenue nearly doubled to $11.12 billion, and net profit skyrocketed 503% year-over-year.

QWhat are the key macroeconomic or geopolitical concerns mentioned in the article that could pose risks to the market outlook?

AKey concerns include: 1) The ongoing conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, which has drastically reduced daily shipping traffic and driven up war risk insurance premiums, posing a threat to oil supply and prices. The IEA warned of a large global oil supply deficit. 2) The deteriorating US fiscal situation, with a large monthly budget deficit and soaring interest payments on national debt, creating underlying pressure for long-term rates to remain high. 3) Potential for inflation to resurge if oil prices break above $100 per barrel, which could force the Fed to reassess its policy path.

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