U.S. Stocks Trend (August 10): Nonfarm Payrolls Drop by 23K, Inflation Takes Over to Test New Highs

marsbitPublicado em 2026-08-10Última atualização em 2026-08-10

Resumo

US Stock Market Weekly Review (August 10th): Nonfarm Payrolls Drop by 23K, Inflation Takes Over Testing New Highs Last week, US stocks closed with their strongest weekly gains since mid-April, led by a tech rebound and adjusted rate expectations. The S&P 500 and Dow hit new record closing highs. Weekend developments centered on Strait of Hormuz negotiations, Berkshire Hathaway's capital deployment, and US government funding. The core focus this week shifts to whether incoming inflation data can justify current market pricing for interest rates. The July Nonfarm Payrolls report showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, missing expectations and leading to a decline in September rate hike probabilities. This eased pressure on tech valuations. However, discussions between Iran and Oman on Strait of Hormuz navigation are pending execution, and renewed attacks on energy facilities kept oil prices volatile, with potential implications for inflation. Berkshire Hathaway reported strong earnings and shifted its capital allocation strategy, ending a long streak of net stock sales and making significant new investments, including in Alphabet. The US Senate passed a stopgap funding bill, reducing near-term government shutdown risks. This week's calendar is dominated by key inflation readings (July CPI & PPI), retail sales data, and earnings from AI and tech infrastructure companies like CoreWeave, Lumentum, Cisco, and Applied Materials. The market expects CPI to show a moderation. If inflation da...

Written by: Tide Research

Last week, U.S. stocks concluded trading amid a tech stock rebound and adjustments in interest rate expectations, with the three major indices posting their largest weekly gains since mid-April. Weekend variables focused on the Strait of Hormuz negotiations, Berkshire Hathaway's capital allocation, and U.S. government funding. The core issue for this week has shifted to whether inflation data can support the current interest rate pricing.

Tech Stocks Lead Index Rebound, Sector Performance Still Diverges

The S&P 500 rose 0.62% on Friday to 7757.64 points, gaining 3.58% for the week; the Dow Jones increased 0.28% to 54036.93 points, up 2.96% weekly; the Nasdaq climbed 1.30% to 26690.62 points, surging 5.19% for the week. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones hit new closing records.

According to S&P 500 component market capitalization weighting, Consumer Discretionary rose 1.50%, Materials gained 1.46%, Information Technology advanced 1.33%, while Healthcare, Utilities, and Real Estate edged higher; Industrials were flat, Consumer Staples, Financials, Communication Services, and Energy closed lower, with Energy falling 1.15%, performing the weakest.

Individual stocks continued to diverge based on earnings and guidance. SpaceX surged 15.8%, with gains exceeding 20% over two days after the lock-up period expired; Coherent rose over 40% for the week, supported by optical communications orders and data center revenue; The Trade Desk fell 21.9% due to revenue guidance below expectations.

The VIX fell 1.65% to 14.90. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.645%, and the two-year yield was 4.195%. WTI crude oil was $78.18, down 7.66% for the week; Brent crude was $83.55, down 4.98% weekly; Spot gold was $4339.75, up 7.27% for the week. As of Sunday, Bitcoin was $64,856, and Ethereum was $1908.94.

Strait Agreement Still Lacks Execution Conditions, Oil Returns to Pricing Center

Discussions between Iran and Oman regarding arrangements for shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz are nearing completion, but the formal resumption of navigation remains linked to requirements such as sanctions relief, frozen asset release, cessation of military threats, and compensation. The U.S. and Iran continue to communicate through intermediaries, and the sequence for implementing the agreement has not yet been determined.

Houthi forces attacked Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery again over the weekend, keeping pressure on energy facilities and shipping security in the Gulf region. During Monday's Asian session, Brent crude rose above $84, and WTI crude approached $79.

Last week's oil price decline mainly traded on expectations of resumed navigation; weekend news did not confirm that commercial shipping could resume quickly. Arrangements for strait management, U.S. lifting of restrictions, and restoration of ship insurance still need to proceed separately. If oil prices rebound consecutively, they will again impact inflation expectations, U.S. Treasury yields, and tech stock valuations.

Berkshire Begins Deploying Cash, Shutdown Pressure Temporarily Pushed Back

Berkshire Hathaway's Q2 operating profit rose 16% year-over-year to $12.98 billion, with net profit increasing to $25.67 billion. The company repurchased $4.5 billion of its own shares in Q2, continued with about $3.3 billion in repurchases in July, and ended a streak of 14 consecutive quarters of net stock sales, with net purchases nearing $20 billion for the quarter.

Berkshire also invested about $10 billion to increase its stake in Alphabet, making it a top-five holding. Cash reserves decreased from $380.2 billion in the previous quarter to $364.7 billion. Since Greg Abel took over as CEO, stock purchases, share buybacks, and physical acquisitions have all increased; discussions about Berkshire's valuation will shift more towards capital efficiency.

The U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill, planning to maintain funding for most federal agencies until December 11. The Senate version still needs to be reconciled with the House proposal; the probability of a government shutdown has decreased recently, with fiscal negotiations postponed until after the midterm elections.

Apple's Chinese website briefly displayed usage instructions for Apple Intelligence accessing Ali's Qianwen over the weekend; the relevant page was subsequently removed, and Apple did not disclose the reason for the change. The official launch timeline for Apple Intelligence in the Chinese market still awaits confirmation.

Inflation, Retail Sales, and AI Earnings Dominate This Week's Calendar

Monday has no significant U.S. economic data; the market will digest the oil price rebound and Berkshire earnings. Rocket Lab reports earnings after the close; commercial launch progress, order backlog, and next-gen rocket investment are key focus areas.

On Tuesday, CoreWeave and Lumentum report earnings. CoreWeave will update on AI cloud demand, capital expenditures, and financing costs; Lumentum's revenue guidance will test whether optical communications demand can sustain. The optical interconnect sector saw significant gains last week; earnings need to keep pace with valuation changes.

On Wednesday, the U.S. releases July CPI; the market expects headline CPI to rise 3.4% year-over-year and core CPI to rise 2.5% year-over-year. Cisco reports earnings after the close; enterprise network equipment demand, AI orders, and profit margins are key points.

On Thursday, the U.S. releases July PPI and initial jobless claims; Applied Materials reports earnings after the close. Semiconductor equipment orders, HBM-related investments, advanced logic process spending, and next-quarter guidance will impact the equipment and memory supply chain.

On Friday, the U.S. releases July retail sales and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The market expects retail sales to grow 0.2% month-over-month. Consumer data will help assess whether weakening employment has begun to affect household spending.

Jobs Data Lowers Rate Hike Probability, CPI to Determine Interest Rate Direction

U.S. July nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000, missing the market expectation of an 80,000 increase; data for May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000. The probability of a September rate hike subsequently fell to about 44%; the two-year Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar retreated in tandem, easing some valuation pressure on tech stocks.

If CPI does not exceed expectations, and the 10-year Treasury yield remains around 4.65% or continues to decline, with AI industry chain earnings maintaining growth, indices may still have room to rise. If inflation resurges and oil prices continue to climb, interest rate trades could quickly reverse. The S&P 500 is already at record highs; this week requires both inflation and corporate profits to jointly provide new support.

Perguntas relacionadas

QWhat were the main factors that contributed to the major weekly gains for the three major U.S. stock indices, according to the article?

AThe major weekly gains were driven by a rebound in tech stocks and adjustments to interest rate expectations.

QHow did the July U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report differ from market expectations, and what was its impact on rate hike probabilities?

AJuly NFP decreased by 23,000, significantly missing the market expectation of an increase of 80,000. This lowered the probability of a September interest rate hike to about 44%, leading to a pullback in 2-year Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar.

QWhat are the key events and economic data points scheduled for the week, as mentioned in the article?

AKey events include the earnings reports from CoreWeave and Lumentum (Tuesday), the U.S. July CPI release (Wednesday), earnings from Cisco (Wednesday) and Applied Materials (Thursday), and the U.S. July Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment data (Friday).

QWhat actions did Berkshire Hathaway take regarding its capital allocation in the second quarter, and what is the significance of these moves?

ABerkshire Hathaway repurchased $4.5 billion of its own stock in Q2, continued with about $3.3 billion in July, and ended a 14-quarter net selling streak by making a net purchase of nearly $20 billion in stocks, including a $10 billion investment in Alphabet. This signals a shift towards more active capital deployment under new CEO Greg Abel.

QAccording to the article, what are the main risks for the stock market (specifically the S&P 500 at record highs) in the coming week?

AThe main risks are if inflation (CPI) comes in hotter than expected or if oil prices continue to rise, which could cause a rapid reversal in interest rate expectations and pressure stock valuations. The market needs both supportive inflation data and continued strong corporate earnings to sustain its upward momentum.

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