New Fire Research Institute: Inflation May Become a Stubborn Problem, Can Cryptocurrencies Achieve Independent Performance in the Short Term?
New Fire Research Institute argues that despite the recent U.S. June CPI decline to 3.5% year-on-year—primarily driven by energy—core goods inflation remains persistent, with core PCE likely showing slight growth. Federal Reserve Chairman Wash has emphasized the Fed's independence and a "zero tolerance" stance on inflation, suggesting a continued hawkish posture that will pressure risk assets, especially if energy prices rise again.
Concurrently, the semiconductor memory sector faces structural pressures, as seen in significant sell-offs for Micron and SK Hynix. High leverage in markets like South Korea is triggering deleveraging, amplifying volatility. Investors are also questioning the sustainability of AI-related capital expenditures.
In contrast, the crypto market showed relative stability last week, with BTC and ETH gaining slightly. Positive developments include a shift to net inflows for U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs, a narrowing Coinbase discount, and strong activity on the Robinhood Chain ecosystem. The potential advancement of the U.S. CLARITY Act provides a policy catalyst.
Overall, the probability of an independent crypto bull run in the short term is low, given overarching macro pressures. However, fundamentals are improving with ETF inflows and robust on-chain activity, providing solid support. Technically, BTC and ETH show strong support at key moving averages. New Fire Research maintains that Bitcoin around $60,000 represents a high-value allocation zone, with limited downside risk near current levels. The true bull market catalyst awaits a confirmed market bottom combined with a macro policy shift and legislative progress.
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