Bitcoin [BTC] rallied as high as $74,050 on Wednesday, 04 March. However, it fell below the $70k support in the past 24 hours of trading. The move underscored that aggressive selling pressure, which drove BTC to $60k in February, has cooled slightly, but a broader market recovery was not yet in sight.
AMBCrypto reported that the Bull Score Index was near 10, signaling weak market sentiment. The Coinbase Premium Index, which had risen into positive territory in recent days, reverted to negative territory too.
Weak participants and sentiment hinted at limited conviction in the rally. This means that the current Bitcoin retracement could extend further south. Hence, the question is – How much further, and how soon?
Bitcoin under pressure yet again
In a post on X, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr noted that selling pressure from long-term holders might be on the rise once again.
Long-term holders are defined as the cohort of Bitcoin holders who have held their supply without moving it for at least 155 days.
At the same time, long-term holders remained profitable on average despite the 46% price drawdown since October. At the previous cycle’s bottom, long-term holders faced high losses as prices fell below their average cost basis.
At the time of writing, this cost basis was at $39.8k. And, a major price drop towards this level is still likely later in 2026.
The argument for a Bitcoin rally towards $83k
Expect the volatility to remain high over the next month or two. The 30-day MVRV ratio reached local highs, showing that 30-day holders were, on average, nearly 8% in profits. Given the news developments recently, profit-taking might be entirely reasonable.
The 90-day and 180-day MVRV ratios were more interesting though. They had many similarities to what happened in December-January.
Back then, the 30-day MVRV kept jumping into small profit margins. The mid-January rally took the 90-day holders into profit (on average) as well. Thereafter, a strong retracement wave commenced as Bitcoin fell to $60k.
In the coming weeks, Bitcoin may surge towards $83k and even $89k to hunt short liquidations and lull the market into bullishness, before falling lower again. Traders can keep an eye on the 90-day MVRV metric and similarities to January.
The short-term Bitcoin outlook
Another crypto analyst, Darkfost, pointed out that short-term holders (holders of BTC aged 155 days or younger) had sent a whopping 27.5k BTC to exchanges in profit. This profit-taking selling pressure likely led to the price drop below $70k.
The amount of STH BTC sent to exchanges at a profit was also among the highest seen in recent weeks. It is possible that fear and uncertainty in the coming days could drive prices below $68k.
Final Summary
- Long-term and short-term holders’ selling pressure saw Bitcoin lose its tenuous grip on the $70k round-number support.
- Short-term holders’ realized price was at $68k, and a bullish reaction from here might be a possibility over the next few days.
