Resumo
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is set for March 15, 2026, and prediction markets on Polymarket are offering insights into potential winners. With over $29 million in total trading volume, the markets indicate "One Battle After Another" is the frontrunner for Best Picture with a 76% probability, followed by "Sinners" at 20%. Analysis of major bettors shows one address holding a significant "YES" position on this outcome with an 89.7% win rate.
In the Best Actor category, Michael B. Jordan leads with a 57% chance, overtaking Timothée Chalamet (34%), who was the favorite until recently. Key addresses show mixed strategies, with one top bettor on Jordan having a negative historical profit.
The Best Director and Best Actress categories appear to be near-certainties. Paul Thomas Anderson holds a 94% probability for Best Director, and Jessie Buckley has a 97% chance for Best Actress, making them potential "sure bets" or "arbitrage plays."
Other notable categories include Best Supporting Actress, where Amy Madigan leads at 52%, and Best Supporting Actor, where Sean Penn is the favorite at 73%. "One Battle After Another" also leads Best Cinematography (73%), and "Sinners" is the overwhelming favorite for Best Original Screenplay (96%). The data provides a unique, market-driven perspective on the upcoming Oscars.
Author | Asher(@Asher_ 0210)
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony will be held on March 15, 2026. As the awards night approaches, discussions about "who will win" are heating up rapidly.
Beyond predictions from traditional media, film critics, and fans, crypto prediction markets are also providing their own answers. So, in the eyes of prediction market participants, who is most likely to take home the major awards at this year's Oscars?
Next, Odaily Planet Daily will break down the win probability for each award based on the latest market data from Polymarket. At the same time, we will analyze the betting situations of the top addresses holding positions in related events to find potential trading opportunities.
Best Picture Award: "One Battle After Another" Leads Temporarily with 76% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner, trading volume exceeding $29 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-picture-winner.
Currently, for the Best Picture award, "One Battle After Another" leads temporarily with a 75% real-time probability, while "Sinners" ranks second with a 20% probability.
Holding Address Analysis
Top YES Holding Address for "One Battle After Another": 0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397, this address has a high win rate of 89.7%, with an average YES purchase price for "One Battle After Another" at 54.8 cents.
Address Holding ONLY the "One Battle After Another" Single Event: 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d, this address bought nearly 10,000 YES shares at an average price of 74 cents 5 days ago and currently holds only the single event for "One Battle After Another" winning Best Picture.
Best Actor Award: Michael B. Jordan Leads Temporarily with 57% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner, trading volume nearly $7 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actor-winner.
Currently, for the Best Actor award, Michael B. Jordan leads temporarily with a 57% real-time probability, while Timothée Chalamet ranks second with a 34% probability.
It is worth mentioning that before the 7th of this month, Timothée Chalamet's probability of winning had consistently been in first place, once reaching as high as 80%.
Holding Address Analysis
Top YES Holding Address for Michael B. Jordan: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, this address has a win rate of only 48%, with a historical P&L of negative $200,000.
Top NO Holding Address for Michael B. Jordan: 0xafbacaeeda63f31202759eff7f8126e49adfe61b, this address has a win rate of 53%, with a historical P&L of $172,000.
Top YES Holding Address for Timothée Chalamet: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, which is also the top YES holding address for Michael B. Jordan, indicating this address is betting on either Michael B. Jordan or Timothée Chalamet winning Best Actor.
Top NO Holding Address for Timothée Chalamet: 0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344, this address has a high win rate of 63%, with a historical P&L of $2.82 million.
Best Director Award: Paul Thomas Anderson Leads Temporarily with 91% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner, trading volume nearly $5 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-director-winner.
Currently, for the Best Director award, Paul Thomas Anderson leads temporarily with a 94% real-time probability. Judging by the probability, this award seems almost certain, potentially a "sure bet".
Holding Address Analysis
Top YES Holding Address for Paul Thomas Anderson: 0x998154d8eb4ba7c4b34b10d76b9742d922d7dec4, this address has a high win rate of 83.6%, with an average YES purchase price for Paul Thomas Anderson at 93 cents.
Best Actress Award: Jessie Buckley Leads Temporarily with 97% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actress Winner, trading volume over $1.5 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actress-winner.
Currently, for the Best Actress award, Jessie Buckley leads temporarily with a 97% real-time probability. Judging by the probability, this award also seems almost certain, potentially a "sure bet".
Other Popular Awards
Additionally, awards with high discussion热度 include:
一、Best Supporting Actress Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actress-winner), Amy Madigan leads temporarily with a 52% real-time probability; Teyana Taylor ranks second with a 26% probability; Wunmi Mosaku ranks third with a 21% probability.
二、Best Supporting Actor Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actor-winner), Sean Penn leads temporarily with a 73% real-time probability; Stellan Skarsgård ranks second with a 19% probability; Delroy Lindo ranks third with a 7% probability.
三、Best Cinematography Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-cinematography-winner), "One Battle After Another" leads temporarily with a 73% real-time probability; "Sinners" ranks second with a 20% probability.
四、Best Original Screenplay Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-original-screenplay-winner), "Sinners" leads temporarily with a 96% real-time probability, potentially a "sure bet".
Perguntas relacionadas
QAccording to the Polymarket prediction data, which film is currently the frontrunner to win the Best Picture award at the 98th Academy Awards?
AAccording to the Polymarket prediction data, 'One Battle After Another' is the current frontrunner to win the Best Picture award with a 76% probability.
QWho is the current favorite to win the Best Actor award, and what was a significant recent shift in the odds for this category?
AMichael B. Jordan is the current favorite to win the Best Actor award with a 57% probability. A significant recent shift occurred when Timothée Chalamet, who was previously the frontrunner with an 80% probability, dropped to second place.
QWhich two categories are described as nearly having no suspense and being potential 'sure bets' or 'savings plans' based on their high probabilities?
AThe Best Director category, where Paul Thomas Anderson has a 91% probability, and the Best Actress category, where Jessie Buckley has a 97% probability, are described as having almost no suspense and being potential 'sure bets'.
QWhat is the address of the largest holder of 'YES' shares for 'One Battle After Another' winning Best Picture, and what is their historical win rate?
AThe address of the largest holder of 'YES' shares for 'One Battle After Another' is 0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397, and their historical win rate is 89.7%.
QIn the Best Supporting Actor category, who is the predicted winner and what is their probability?
AIn the Best Supporting Actor category, Sean Penn is the predicted winner with a 73% probability.
Leituras Relacionadas
Bitcoin Miners Are Waving the White Flag, But Their Stocks Are Soaring
Bitcoin miners are capitulating as evidenced by a sustained drop in network hash rate and a record-steep 19.9% decline in mining difficulty, signaling the shuttering of unprofitable machines. However, in a significant divergence from historical patterns, the stocks of publicly traded mining companies have soared, with one major player gaining over 430% in the past year, even as BTC's price fell roughly 46%. This surge is largely attributed to these companies pivoting toward the more lucrative AI narrative.
Simultaneously, miners face a structural squeeze. Daily block reward revenue in BTC terms has hit a new all-time low following the latest halving, with current dollar-denominated daily revenue around $30 million compared to a longer-term average of ~$40 million. Fee revenue remains negligible, covering less than one block's subsidy over a 28-day average and accounting for only about ten minutes of the network's daily security budget.
This capitulation cycle is unique: miner stress and crypto price weakness have decoupled due to alternative revenue streams (AI), while the long-term reliance on increasing bitcoin prices to offset shrinking subsidies continues, with fee income still far from filling the impending gap.
marsbitHá 6m
marsbitHá 6m
Will the Fed Definitely Raise Interest Rates in September? How Will Crypto and U.S. Stocks Withstand the Pressure?
The market's expectation for a September Fed rate hike surged dramatically in early August, jumping from under 50% to over 80% within a week. This shift followed a contentious July FOMC meeting, where a 9-3 vote to hold rates revealed growing dissent from hawkish members advocating for an immediate hike to combat persistent inflation.
The primary catalyst for this repricing is rising oil prices, driven by renewed geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, which threaten global supply. Energy costs directly influence inflation metrics, making the upcoming July CPI report (due August 12th) a critical data point. If it shows inflation reaccelerating, the probability of a September hike will solidify.
For Bitcoin and crypto assets, this is typically bearish news. Bitcoin continues to behave as a high-beta, liquidity-sensitive risk asset. A rate hike raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and could drive capital toward money markets, pressuring crypto prices in the short term. However, historical patterns suggest that if a hike is perceived as the end of a tightening cycle rather than the start, any negative price impact may be brief.
U.S. stocks, particularly crypto-linked equities like Coinbase and growth-oriented tech stocks, are also vulnerable. Higher rates increase discount rates in valuation models, putting pressure on high-multiple companies. This coincides with a pivotal tech earnings season where investor focus has shifted from massive AI capital expenditure to tangible revenue and cash flow generation. Companies with negative cash flow and weak growth narratives could face heightened volatility if borrowing costs rise in September.
In summary, a September Fed hike has evolved into a mainstream market scenario. Key factors to watch are oil prices, the July CPI report, and Fed communications, which will determine the final decision and its impact on volatile crypto and equity markets.
marsbitHá 6m
marsbitHá 6m
A 'Overlooked' Market Event: Joint US-Japan-South Korea Intervention, Rare US Treasury Involvement, and Bessent's Quiet 'Market Rescue'?
Summary:
The United States, Japan, and South Korea executed their largest coordinated foreign exchange intervention in nearly 30 years. The action targeted depreciation pressure on the Japanese yen and South Korean won. This move is seen as a significant effort by the US to stabilize the financial markets of its key allies and prevent the spillover of risks.
Key details:
* Japan reportedly intervened on July 30 using approximately 8.45 trillion yen (about $52.8 billion). South Korean authorities also intervened that day, selling dollars to support the won.
* Notably, the US Treasury Department intervened directly in yen markets for the first time in roughly 30 years. The New York Fed, reportedly acting on behalf of the Treasury, sold euros to buy yen via Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on July 31. Analysts view the use of the euro-yen pair as a way to alleviate yen pressure without adding selling pressure to the US dollar.
* Prior to the action, the New York Fed conducted "rate checks" on both USD/JPY and EUR/JPY, a newer signaling tool that falls between verbal and physical intervention.
The intervention is interpreted as going beyond traditional currency stabilization. Analysts, such as Michael Hartnett of Bank of America, suggest it resembles a "Price Keeping Operation" for the AI era. The core US objectives are perceived to be:
1. Preventing rapid yen depreciation from triggering a sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields.
2. Containing financial stress from spreading across Asian markets like South Korea and Japan.
3. Reducing the risk of disorderly capital flows impacting the US bond market.
This coordinated action underscores the importance of Japan and South Korea as critical partners in the US semiconductor and AI supply chain. Stabilizing their financial markets is seen as vital to mitigating risks to the broader tech industry and the US market itself. The intervention coincides with market pressures, including the KOSDAQ index hitting a low since October 2022. While seen as a move to control volatility, some analysts caution it may not fundamentally reverse existing market trends.
marsbitHá 10m
marsbitHá 10m
Will the Federal Reserve Definitely Raise Interest Rates in September? How Will Cryptocurrencies and US Stocks Bear the Pressure?
In early August 2024, market expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike surged dramatically, from below 50% to over 80%, driven by renewed inflation concerns. This shift followed a contentious July FOMC meeting where a 9-3 vote to hold rates revealed a growing hawkish faction advocating for an immediate hike, citing prolonged above-target inflation. The key catalyst is escalating conflict near the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed oil prices up approximately 20% in July, threatening to reignite inflation. The next critical data point is the July CPI report on August 12th; a hot reading could solidify hike expectations.
For crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin, this represents near-term pressure. Bitcoin continues to exhibit high-beta, risk-on characteristics, making it sensitive to tightening liquidity and higher opportunity costs. However, historical precedent suggests that if a hike is perceived as the cycle's end rather than its start, the negative impact may be brief, with markets quickly pivoting to anticipate future rate cuts.
U.S. stocks, especially crypto-linked equities like Coinbase and high-valuation tech stocks, face amplified volatility. Higher rates increase discount rates in valuation models, pressuring growth stocks. This coincides with a pivotal tech earnings season where investor focus has shifted from massive AI capital expenditures to demonstrable revenue and cash flow generation. Companies with negative cash flows and weak growth narratives could see severe pressure if a September hike materializes, as financing costs would rise. Key indicators to watch include oil prices, upcoming inflation data, and Fed commentary at events like the Jackson Hole symposium.
Odaily星球日报Há 10m
Odaily星球日报Há 10m
