Matrixport Research: After Five Consecutive Months of Bitcoin Decline, Conditions for a Market Rebound Are Gradually Forming

MatrixportPublicado em 2026-03-13Última atualização em 2026-03-13

Resumo

Matrixport Research: Conditions for a Market Rebound Gradually Forming After Bitcoin's Consecutive Five-Month Decline Amid low trading volumes and weak market sentiment, with many investors shifting focus to traditional assets like gold and oil, underlying market conditions are quietly improving. Bitcoin has declined for five consecutive months—a historically rare occurrence—which has often preceded阶段性反弹 (stage-wise rebounds) in the past. Similarly, the total market cap of altcoins has fallen to a range that has historically triggered multiple rebound initiations. Although the overall altcoin model has not yet turned bullish, the number of altcoins reclaiming their 30-day moving average and showing improved momentum through quantitative screening has significantly increased. With stablecoin funds flowing back into the market, overall liquidity conditions are also improving, pointing to a potential market inflection window. From a historical perspective, Bitcoin often experiences阶段性反弹 (stage-wise rebounds) after three consecutive months of decline in a bear market. A sustained decline of four to six months with little recovery is relatively rare. The market is currently in such an extreme sequence, increasing the probability of a short-term counter-trend recovery. Simultaneously, the valuation of the altcoin sector has entered a range where周期性反弹 (cyclical rebounds) have historically been more likely. When the total altcoin market cap deviates approximately 30% from its 90-...

"Amid low trading volume and weak sentiment, the market structure is quietly improving, and a potential rebound window may be forming."

Overall sentiment in the crypto market remains weak, with trading volume staying at relatively low levels. Many traders have shifted their attention to traditional assets like gold and oil. However, beneath the surface calm, some key changes are gradually emerging. Bitcoin has fallen for five consecutive months, which is relatively rare in history, and similar trends have often preceded阶段性 rebounds. At the same time, the total market cap of山寨币 has also fallen back to a range where反弹 have historically started multiple times. Although our山寨币 model has not yet officially turned bullish, the number of coins重新站上30日均线 and selected through momentum screening has significantly increased. As stablecoin funds重新流入 the market, overall liquidity conditions are also continuously improving. These phenomena collectively point to a potential market inflection window that may be forming.

Historically Rare Consecutive Pullback: Bitcoin's Potential Bottom is Being Built

From past experience, Bitcoin often experiences阶段性反弹 after three consecutive months of decline in a bear market, while持续下跌 for four to six months with little recovery is relatively少见. The current market is in such an extreme sequence, which increases the probability of a short-term逆势修复.

At the same time, the valuation level of the山寨币 sector has also entered a range where周期性反弹 have historically been more likely to occur. When the total market cap of山寨币 deviates from the 90-day moving average by about 30%, the market is often in an overall bottom-building phase, after which Bitcoin and the山寨币 sector usually experience sustained recovery. Although trading volume remains low, the price structure of some山寨币 has begun to improve, and Bitcoin is also building a potential阶段性底部 near $66,000. If the price can hold the current support range and gradually break through key resistance levels upward, the market recovery process is expected to continue.

同步改善的动能与流动性: Market Participation Begins to Expand

Although the overall performance of山寨币 has been weak in this cycle, some structural changes are emerging. More and more山寨币 are重新站上 the 30-day moving average and have begun to阶段性 outperform Bitcoin, which is often an early signal of overall market动能改善. At the same time, the number of山寨币 selected through quantitative momentum screening has significantly increased, with some标的 simultaneously possessing both improving momentum and fundamental catalysts.

More importantly, the market funding environment is also changing. The previous situation dominated by liquidations and capital outflows is gradually turning into capital回流. The重新扩张 of stablecoin liquidity is one of the important signals. In the past month alone, Circle's USDC recorded a net inflow of approximately $8 billion, indicating that new funds are重新 entering the crypto market. As liquidity gradually improves, the probability of funds being reallocated to Bitcoin and Ethereum is also rising, which will provide support for a broader market.

Overall, crypto market sentiment remains subdued, but multiple key conditions are gradually forming. After experiencing a historically relatively rare period of consecutive monthly declines, Bitcoin seems to be building a potential bottom; the回流 of stablecoin funds is also improving market liquidity conditions. At the same time, the breadth of the山寨币 market is beginning to expand, with more coins重新站上 the 30-day momentum boundary line. Although our山寨币 model has not yet officially turned bullish, the trading setup meeting the screening conditions has risen to its highest level in months. If Bitcoin confirms a trend breakout above key points, the probability of a broader market阶段性反弹 will further increase.

The above views are from Matrix on Target, contact us to get the full Matrix on Target report.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may carry significant risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.

Perguntas relacionadas

QAccording to the Matrixport report, what historical pattern suggests a potential rebound for Bitcoin after a prolonged decline?

AHistorically, Bitcoin has often seen a rebound after three consecutive months of decline. The current market is in an extreme sequence of five consecutive months of decline, which is relatively rare and increases the probability of a short-term counter-trend recovery.

QWhat is the significance of the total market cap of altcoins falling to a specific level relative to its 90-day moving average?

AWhen the total market cap of altcoins deviates by approximately 30% below its 90-day moving average, the market is often in a bottoming phase. This level has historically been a zone from which periodic rebounds in Bitcoin and the altcoin sector have started.

QWhat early signal of improving market dynamics is indicated by the behavior of altcoins?

AAn early signal of improving market dynamics is that a growing number of altcoins are reclaiming their 30-day moving averages and are beginning to outperform Bitcoin in phases.

QWhat key change in the capital environment is supporting the potential market turnaround?

AA key change is the shift from capital outflows dominated by events like exchange collapses to a trend of capital returning to the market. This is signaled by the re-expansion of stablecoin liquidity, with USDC alone recording a net inflow of approximately $8 billion in the past month.

QAround what price level is Bitcoin potentially building a阶段性 (stage) bottom, and what is required for the recovery to continue?

ABitcoin is potentially building a stage bottom around $66,000. For the recovery process to continue, the price needs to hold the current support zone and gradually break through key resistance levels upwards.

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