Author: Deep Tide TechFlow
US Stocks: End-of-Quarter Settlement Day, Q1 Bill Presented to Everyone
Tuesday, the calendar turned to March 31, also flipping to the last page of the first quarter of 2026.
As of Monday's (March 30) close, the S&P 500 stood at 6,343, down over 7% for the quarter, more than 9% off its late January all-time high, just a step away from correction territory. The Nasdaq is already in correction, and the Dow officially entered correction last Friday—this is the first time both the Dow and Nasdaq have fallen into correction simultaneously since the Fed's aggressive rate-hike cycle began in 2022. The Russell 2000 small-cap index fared worse, closing at 2,414, with a correction depth exceeding 12%. The S&P recorded five consecutive weekly declines, the longest such streak since 2022.
The end-of-quarter "window dressing" effect should have provided some support, as fund managers tend to rebalance portfolios at quarter-end, selling losers and buying winners to create a favorable-looking portfolio. But in Q1 this year, "winner" is a contentious term: energy and defense stocks rose, at the cost of tech and consumer stocks plummeting. The answer locked in by fund managers as the "best holdings" often turned out to be oil stocks that outperformed the market, not Nvidia or Microsoft.
This distorted internal structure was clear in Monday's session. The Dow rose only 49.5 points (+0.11%), supported by Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, and energy companies; the S&P 500 fell 0.39%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.73%, with the tech sector again acting as a drag. Micron plunged 9.7% in a single day, a microcosm of the war's slow bleed on chip stocks: Google's computing power algorithms and semiconductor supply chain uncertainties under the Strait of Hormuz blockade have turned the once-beloved AI hardware stocks into nervous wrecks. The tech sector's 50-day moving average has fallen below its 200-day moving average, forming a "death cross," with five consecutive monthly declines—the longest such streak since the dot-com bubble burst in September 2002.
One statement from Monday is worth archiving for history: Fed Chair Powell, speaking at Harvard University, explicitly stated that Fed policy is "in the right place" and inclined to "look through" this supply-side shock. He said: "By the time the tightening effects of monetary policy truly transmit to the economy, this oil price shock will likely be long gone; it would be inappropriate to suppress the economy then." This is a textbook dovish stance—but the market's response was to continue falling, as oil prices kept climbing simultaneously, with WTI standing above $102.88 and Brent above $108.
Powell's "looking through" and oil's "not looking through" are the most unsolvable contradiction in the market at quarter-end.
Today's highlights are both data and earnings: Consumer Confidence Index (March) and JOLTS Job Openings (February) will be released during the session, while Nike will report earnings after the close—the only heavyweight Dow component earnings this quarter and the first end-of-quarter report card for a consumer giant since the war began. Wall Street's consensus estimates: EPS around $0.29, down about 46% year-over-year, revenue around $11.2 billion, roughly flat compared to last year. Against a low base, the impact of the Hormuz blockade on supply chains in Vietnam and India will be a key variable in management's commentary.
Morgan Stanley's call is worth highlighting separately: the bank downgraded global stocks to "neutral" just before quarter-end, simultaneously upgrading US Treasuries and cash to "overweight." The reason: "The uncertainty around the scale and duration of oil supply disruptions makes the outlook for risk assets increasingly asymmetric"—this is a top Wall Street institution using the most restrained language to convey the most pessimistic forecast.
Gold and Oil: Oil Remains High at Quarter-End, Gold Rebounds Against the Trend
Oil: $103, War Premium Has Not Faded
WTI crude closed Monday at $102.88/barrel, with Brent crude around $108 to $109, both hitting new阶段性 highs since the Iran war outbreak. The catalyst came from weekend escalations: Yemen's Houthi rebels launched missiles at Israeli and US military targets, and Iran attacked an oil tanker passing through Kuwaiti waters at night—the latter directly triggered a new surge in futures during Monday's after-hours session.
The war's total bill for oil prices from the data: WTI was around $57 at the start of the year, now up about 80%. This is the biggest market story of the quarter.
A macro perspective worth recording: some economists point out that the current global supply contraction intensity is comparable to the OPEC embargo shock during the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. The IEA has characterized this crisis as "the most severe global energy security challenge ever."
Gold: Seeking Conditions for Another Takeoff in the Cracks of the Oil Inflation Chain
Gold rose about 1.4% on Monday, trading around $4,542 to $4,544, with the lowest point跌破 $4,100 now behind it.
Gold's structural situation remains complex: on one hand, it is indeed pressured by a stronger dollar amid rising inflation expectations; on the other hand, the war itself and persistent central bank accumulation demand have never disappeared. Gold's overall March decline was about 17%, the worst single month since 1983—but that was a pullback after hitting an all-time high of $5,600. Standing at quarter-end, gold still recorded a positive return for the quarter, remaining one of the best-performing major assets this year besides energy stocks.
Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Stabilizes, But Quarter-End Bill Also Looks Bad
Bitcoin was around $66,727 on Monday, having briefly rebounded to near $67,747 intraday, but the quarterly performance was dismal, down over 30% from the early January high around $97,000, officially becoming the worst-performing mainstream asset class this year.
An unexpected signal emerged at quarter-end: Strategy paused its Bitcoin purchases for the first time this week, breaking a 13-week consecutive buying streak in the most intense week of the war. This may not necessarily be a bearish signal; it could be internal management operations. But against the backdrop of Bernstein recently calling the "bottom in," the timing of this pause is particularly noteworthy.
Bitcoin's situation throughout Q1 has its own internal logical complexity: it initially fell with all risk assets at the war's outbreak, then rebounded in某些 stages, showing some "geopolitical crisis resilience," but under a macro environment where rate expectations shifted towards hikes, it ultimately couldn't escape the gravity of liquidity logic. The global crypto total market cap shrank about 25% in Q1 to around $2.5 trillion, with the Fear & Greed Index hovering around 25 (extreme fear).
The main压制力量 for the crypto market in Q1 wasn't a single crash, but a persistent liquidity tightening expectation—when the Fed's next move changed from "rate cuts" to "possible hikes," all high-risk assets were repriced.
Today's Summary: End of Q1, How History Will Record These 32 Days
March 31, 2026 Q1 close:
US Stocks: S&P 500 down over 7% for the quarter, Dow and Nasdaq in correction, tech sector five consecutive monthly declines, longest since 2002, VIX above 30. Almost all of this quarterly decline occurred within the 32 trading days after the US-Israel joint strike on Iran on February 28.
Oil/Gold: WTI crude rose from around $57 to $102 for the quarter, up about 80%, the most direct冲击波 transmission path of the war to the global economy; gold, after hitting a historical high of $5,600, fell back to around $4,500, still recording a positive return for the quarter, but down about 17% in March alone, the worst single month since 1983.
Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin down over 30% for the quarter, becoming the worst-performing mainstream asset in Q1, but has recovered somewhat from the worst low around $62,800, now stabilizing in the $66,000 to $68,000 range.
The market now only cares about one question: When April 6 comes, will Trump really press the button?
April 6 is Trump's latest deadline; if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed by then, he will face the choice of striking Iranian energy infrastructure or delaying again. Both outcomes have market costs: the former意味着 oil above $130 and real recession risk; the latter意味着 further erosion of Trump's negotiation credibility, and the market will start seriously pricing a "long-term blockade" scenario.
No one knows which path will be chosen. Only that the first quarter has ended, and the cost of those 32 days is written in the K-lines of every asset class.
