Mag 7 Evaporates Two Trillion｜Rewire Morning News Brief

marsbitPublicado em 2026-03-30Última atualização em 2026-03-30

Resumo

Two major conflicts are converging as Ukraine's drone attacks disable 40% of Russia's oil export capacity, while Russia equips Iran with advanced AI drones featuring Starlink communications. This signals merging global risk networks. Concurrently, the Magnificent 7 tech stocks have lost over $2 trillion in value, with markets now pricing in a potential interest rate hike this year as inflation concerns persist. A sector rotation from growth stocks to energy and defense is underway. In AI developments, Anthropic is privately warning US officials that its unreleased "Mythos" model could make large-scale cyber attacks significantly more likely by 2026, representing a leap in AI-powered offensive capabilities. Additionally, Eli Lilly makes a landmark $2.75 billion bet on AI drug discovery through a partnership with Insilico Medicine, aiming to compress drug development timelines from years to months. Other notable developments include US stablecoin regulation advancing, Musk warning that AI's growth is limited by power supply constraints, and AI policy becoming an independent issue in US midterm elections.

The battle lines of Iran and Ukraine are intersecting. In the same week that Russia equipped Iranian drones with Starlink, Ukraine destroyed 40% of Russia's oil export capacity. Capital markets have finally grasped it: these are not two isolated conflicts, but a merging global risk network.

1| Two Wars Converge: Ukraine Bombs Russian Oil Ports, Russia Gives Iran Starlink

Ukraine launched consecutive drone strikes on three major Russian oil export ports this week. Primorsk on March 23rd, Ust-Luga on the 25th, and the Kirishi refinery on the 26th. Reuters calculates that about 2 million barrels per day of export capacity were taken offline, accounting for 40% of Russia's total export capacity, "the most severe oil supply disruption in modern Russian history."

In the same week, Fortune reported that Russia is providing Iran with upgraded Shahed drones, featuring new AI computing platforms, jet engines, Starlink communication capabilities, and anti-jamming equipment. Western intelligence also shows Russia is providing Iran with real-time satellite positioning of US military assets. On the other side, Ukraine signed a security agreement with Saudi Arabia to share counter-drone technology, and Zelenskyy made secret visits to the UAE and Qatar.

University of Pittsburgh political science professor Spaniel says "we are not at a real world war yet," but the warring parties, weapons supply chains, and intelligence networks of the two conflicts are already intersecting. Washington is still considering diverting part of its military aid to the Middle East. (Continuation of yesterday's report)

(Sources: Fortune / Reuters / Moscow Times / FPRI / Time)

2| Mag 7 Evaporates Over $2 Trillion, Market Prices In Rate Hike for the First Time This Year

The Magnificent 7 have collectively lost over $2 trillion in market value from their historical highs. Microsoft is down 32% from its October high, its worst start to a year in company history. Meta is down 25%, Alphabet down 15%, and Nvidia and Amazon have turned negative for the year. The S&P 500 fell for five consecutive weeks, its longest losing streak since 2022.

A key expectation flip occurred in the futures market. Traders pushed the probability of a rate hike within the year to 52%, breaking the 50% threshold for the first time. The Atlanta Fed tracker shows a 19.8% probability of a 25 basis point hike. The Fed held rates steady in its March meeting, but Powell "expressed concern" about the lack of progress on inflation. Global forecasting agencies have raised their CPI expectations to 4.2%, far exceeding the Fed's forecast of 2.7%. EY-Parthenon raised the probability of a US recession to 40%.

Institutional funds are shifting from tech growth stocks to energy, defense, and domestic manufacturing. The Mag 7 gained 107%, 67%, and 25% over the past three years; now all seven stocks are in the red for the year. The problem isn't just oil prices; it's that $650 billion in AI capital expenditure has become a burden in a rising rate cycle.

(Sources: Fortune / CNBC / Yahoo Finance / EY-Parthenon / Atlanta Fed)

3| Anthropic Warns Government: Mythos Model Makes Large-Scale Cyber Attacks "More Likely"

Anthropic is privately warning senior US officials that its unreleased "Mythos" model makes a large-scale cyber attack in 2026 "more likely to occur." Previously, information about the model was accidentally leaked due to a CMS system failure, after which the company confirmed Mythos is its "most powerful model to date," representing a "step-change in capabilities."

Axios reported that the model "far surpasses any other AI model in cyber capabilities," allowing agents to "autonomously penetrate corporate, government, and municipal systems with stunning precision." A Dark Reading survey showed 48% of cybersecurity professionals list agent AI as the top attack vector for 2026, surpassing deepfakes and all other threats. Cybersecurity stocks fell on the news, and Evercore issued commentary.

QuantumBit concurrently reported that Claude discovered a 20-year-old system vulnerability in 90 minutes. These two events point to the same inflection point: the growth rate of AI's offensive capabilities is now faster than its defensive capabilities. Frontier labs are no longer just selling products; they are redefining who can breach whom.

(Sources: Axios / Fortune / CNBC / Evercore / QuantumBit)

4| Lilly Bets $2.75 Billion on AI Drug Discovery, Rewriting Traditional R&D Timelines

Eli Lilly signed a $2.75 billion AI drug discovery agreement with Hong Kong's Insilico Medicine, paying $115 million upfront for global exclusive development and commercialization rights. Insilico has used generative AI to develop 28 drugs, nearly half of which are in clinical stages. The two companies have collaborated since 2023, aiming to compress the cycle from target discovery to new drug application from the traditional several years to a few months.

This is the largest single agreement for AI drug discovery by a major pharmaceutical company. Previous AI pharma deals were mostly research collaborations and milestone payments; Lilly directly buying commercialization rights effectively prices AI drug pipelines using traditional pharma valuation logic. STAT News points out that Insilico's core competency lies in using AI for both target discovery and molecular design simultaneously, parallelizing the two most time-consuming steps. When AI is not just an辅助工具 but the pipeline itself, the valuation logic of the pharmaceutical industry may be rewritten.

(Sources: CNBC / Bloomberg / STAT News)

Also Worth Knowing ↓

CLARITY Act stablecoin yield compromise reached, DeFi tokens face headwinds. Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks reached a principled agreement: passive holding yields are banned, active rewards are retained. Protocols like Uniswap, Aave, dYdX may be restricted. Bank committee review scheduled for late April. Stablecoins are being legislatively redefined from speculative tools to payment instruments, forcing a structural adjustment to DeFi's yield models. (Source: CoinDesk / Congress.gov)

Musk warns US chip capacity will soon exceed power supply, a problem China doesn't have. Speaking at Davos with BlackRock CEO Fink, he said the fundamental limiting factor for AI deployment is electricity, as chip capacity grows exponentially but power cannot keep up. The bottleneck in the AI arms race is shifting from supply chains to the power grid. (Source: Fortune)

Southeast Asian stablecoin payments go "invisible," crypto card business surges. Users no longer directly interact with crypto assets as stablecoins are embedded into daily consumption payments. This aligns with the CLARITY Act's direction of positioning stablecoins as payment tools, a signal that crypto is moving from speculation to infrastructure, evident in both legislation and product development. (Source: CoinDesk)

Cambridge University's new memristor chip reduces AI switching current by a million times. New materials solve the energy consumption and precision bottlenecks of traditional memristors, potentially fundamentally changing the energy efficiency of AI inference. Still in the lab stage, but the direction echoes Musk's point that "electricity is the limiting factor." (Source: Tom's Hardware)

Trump's AI agenda becomes an independent campaign issue for the first time in midterm elections. A new political group formed specifically to push AI policy into the 2026 midterm elections. AI governance is moving from the executive order stage into electoral politics. (Source: New York Times)

Perguntas relacionadas

QWhat is the significance of Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian oil ports and Russia's provision of Starlink to Iran, according to the article?

AThe article indicates that these events show the convergence of two previously isolated conflicts into a single, interconnected global risk network, involving cross-over of participants, weapons supply chains, and intelligence networks.

QHow much market value have the Magnificent 7 tech stocks lost, and what key shift in market expectations is driving this change?

AThe Magnificent 7 have lost over $2 trillion in market value from their peaks. A key driver is a shift in market expectations, with traders now pricing in a greater than 50% probability of an interest rate *hike* within the year, contrary to previous expectations of cuts.

QWhat specific warning did Anthropic give to US officials regarding its 'Mythos' model, and what capability does it demonstrate?

AAnthropic warned US officials that its unreleased 'Mythos' model makes a large-scale cyber attack by 2026 'more likely.' The model is described as a 'step-change in capability' that allows AI agents to autonomously penetrate corporate, government, and municipal systems with stunning precision.

QWhat is the size and significance of Eli Lilly's $2.75 billion deal with Insilico Medicine?

AEli Lilly's deal with Insilico Medicine is worth up to $2.75 billion with a $115 million upfront payment. It is the largest single deal for an AI-pharma partnership and signifies a shift as a major pharma company is using traditional drug valuation logic to price an AI-generated drug pipeline, potentially rewriting industry R&D timelines.

QAccording to Elon Musk at Davos, what is the fundamental limiting factor for AI deployment, and how does China compare?

AElon Musk stated that the fundamental limiting factor for AI deployment is electrical power supply, not just chips. He warned that US chip capacity is growing exponentially while power supply is not, and noted that China does not have this particular problem.

Leituras Relacionadas

Annual Salary of Millions Competing for Electricians, Meta Rushes to Open Its Own Technical School

The AI boom is facing an unexpected bottleneck: a severe shortage of skilled construction workers and electricians. As tech giants like Meta, OpenAI, and Alphabet race to build massive data centers—such as OpenAI's $16 billion "Stargate" project—they are hitting a critical labor wall. The U.S. needs an estimated 130,000 more electricians, 240,000 construction workers, and 150,000 supervisors by 2030 for AI infrastructure alone, but tens of thousands of electrician jobs go unfilled each year. While AI companies offer high premiums, with electricians earning up to $280,000 annually, worker scarcity still causes massive losses—delays on a single project can cost $14.2 million per month. The complexity of building AI data centers, which require immense power (equivalent to powering hundreds of thousands of homes), sophisticated electrical systems, and advanced liquid cooling solutions, demands highly skilled technicians who are in short supply. To combat this, companies are investing heavily in training. Meta has committed $115 million to a free training school offering tuition, housing, and stipends, targeting 5,000 new workers. OpenAI is partnering with unions to secure skilled labor. These efforts are paying off, with a significant rise in Gen Z interest in trade schools over college. However, the power demands are staggering. AI data centers are driving a rapid surge in electricity consumption, projected to account for up to 12% of U.S. power use by 2028 and raising costs for consumers. Furthermore, the construction boom is project-based, leading to a potential future glut of trained workers once building peaks, which could depress wages industry-wide. The race for AI supremacy now depends as much on skilled hands as on advanced chips.

marsbitHá 30m

Annual Salary of Millions Competing for Electricians, Meta Rushes to Open Its Own Technical School

marsbitHá 30m

OpenAI No Longer Sells Its Most Expensive Model for Profit

OpenAI is shifting its business strategy away from promoting its most expensive, flagship models for every task. Recent price cuts—80% for GPT-5.6 Luna and 20% for Terra—signal a deeper change: the company now actively advises users that many tasks don't require the most powerful model. Instead, OpenAI recommends a tiered approach: use the high-end GPT-5.6 Sol for complex planning and analysis, then delegate execution to cheaper models like Luna. This mirrors moves by Anthropic, which recently launched Claude Opus 5 at half the price of its top model, Fable 5. Both companies are de-emphasizing flagship models as primary revenue drivers, using them instead for brand prestige and technological showcases. The industry is entering a "mass-market" phase, similar to automotive, where high-volume, cost-effective models handle daily operations and drive scale. OpenAI's price reductions are partly enabled by AI models themselves optimizing underlying code and infrastructure, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of efficiency gains and cost reduction. Competition is shifting from "who is smartest" to "who offers the best value." The goal is no longer selling individual models but fostering widespread API adoption and ecosystem lock-in. By making AI calls cheap and ubiquitous, companies like OpenAI aim to become the indispensable, utility-like infrastructure powering automated workflows—the "water and electricity" of software, quietly embedded everywhere.

marsbitHá 30m

OpenAI No Longer Sells Its Most Expensive Model for Profit

marsbitHá 30m

Suspected 4th Coldcard attack wave sweeps 389 Bitcoin: Galaxy’s Thorn

Coldcard hardware wallet users are facing a new wave of coordinated attacks targeting a firmware flaw, with researcher Alex Thorn flagging 218 recent transactions moving approximately 389 Bitcoin from potentially impacted addresses. The attack pattern shows a high rate of transactions targeting unique victim addresses, differing from previous waves. The vulnerability, which causes affected devices to generate weaker wallet seeds, is estimated to have impacted over 1,100 wallets, leading to around $90 million in Bitcoin stolen. Thorn advises affected users who control their keys may attempt to move funds with a higher-fee transaction before the attacker's transactions are confirmed.

cointelegraphHá 37m

Suspected 4th Coldcard attack wave sweeps 389 Bitcoin: Galaxy’s Thorn

cointelegraphHá 37m

Bitcoin Miners Are Waving the White Flag, But Their Stocks Are Soaring

Bitcoin miners are capitulating as evidenced by a sustained drop in network hash rate and a record-steep 19.9% decline in mining difficulty, signaling the shuttering of unprofitable machines. However, in a significant divergence from historical patterns, the stocks of publicly traded mining companies have soared, with one major player gaining over 430% in the past year, even as BTC's price fell roughly 46%. This surge is largely attributed to these companies pivoting toward the more lucrative AI narrative. Simultaneously, miners face a structural squeeze. Daily block reward revenue in BTC terms has hit a new all-time low following the latest halving, with current dollar-denominated daily revenue around $30 million compared to a longer-term average of ~$40 million. Fee revenue remains negligible, covering less than one block's subsidy over a 28-day average and accounting for only about ten minutes of the network's daily security budget. This capitulation cycle is unique: miner stress and crypto price weakness have decoupled due to alternative revenue streams (AI), while the long-term reliance on increasing bitcoin prices to offset shrinking subsidies continues, with fee income still far from filling the impending gap.

marsbitHá 40m

Bitcoin Miners Are Waving the White Flag, But Their Stocks Are Soaring

marsbitHá 40m

Will the Fed Definitely Raise Interest Rates in September? How Will Crypto and U.S. Stocks Withstand the Pressure?

The market's expectation for a September Fed rate hike surged dramatically in early August, jumping from under 50% to over 80% within a week. This shift followed a contentious July FOMC meeting, where a 9-3 vote to hold rates revealed growing dissent from hawkish members advocating for an immediate hike to combat persistent inflation. The primary catalyst for this repricing is rising oil prices, driven by renewed geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, which threaten global supply. Energy costs directly influence inflation metrics, making the upcoming July CPI report (due August 12th) a critical data point. If it shows inflation reaccelerating, the probability of a September hike will solidify. For Bitcoin and crypto assets, this is typically bearish news. Bitcoin continues to behave as a high-beta, liquidity-sensitive risk asset. A rate hike raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and could drive capital toward money markets, pressuring crypto prices in the short term. However, historical patterns suggest that if a hike is perceived as the end of a tightening cycle rather than the start, any negative price impact may be brief. U.S. stocks, particularly crypto-linked equities like Coinbase and growth-oriented tech stocks, are also vulnerable. Higher rates increase discount rates in valuation models, putting pressure on high-multiple companies. This coincides with a pivotal tech earnings season where investor focus has shifted from massive AI capital expenditure to tangible revenue and cash flow generation. Companies with negative cash flow and weak growth narratives could face heightened volatility if borrowing costs rise in September. In summary, a September Fed hike has evolved into a mainstream market scenario. Key factors to watch are oil prices, the July CPI report, and Fed communications, which will determine the final decision and its impact on volatile crypto and equity markets.

marsbitHá 40m

Will the Fed Definitely Raise Interest Rates in September? How Will Crypto and U.S. Stocks Withstand the Pressure?

marsbitHá 40m

Trading

Spot
活动图片

Categorias popularesright-arrow

Etiquetas Popularesright-arrow