How can Bitcoin avoid a year-long bear market? Trader conviction isn’t the answer

ambcryptoPublicado em 2025-12-31Última atualização em 2025-12-31

Resumo

Bitcoin's elevated long/short ratio has persisted for months, typically a bullish signal, but has failed to generate profits—a pattern broken for the first time. Analysts suggest leveraged traders may be hindering recovery. Key metrics indicate similarities to the 2022 bear market setup, with a 1.75 million BTC gap in supply in profit. To avoid a prolonged downturn, Bitcoin must hold above $75k-$80k in January, potentially leading to a bullish crossover by late February. A bounce to $101k-$103k is possible, but failure to maintain support may confirm a bearish trend shift.

Bitcoin [BTC] saw an increasing long/short ratio once again, noted analytics platform Alphractal in a post on X. This signaled increased interest from traders to go long.

While this is a common occurrence by itself, the Long/Short Ratio has remained elevated for months now. When the BTC Long/Short Ratio is above the altcoins’ Long/Short Ratio, it’s a perfect buy signal for the former.

This pattern has been broken over the past few months, for the first time. The clear-cut buying opportunity has not translated into profits.

Founder and CEO of the platform, Joao Wedson, pointed out that leveraged traders could be hampering recovery attempts.

Will we see a recovery or a Bitcoin bear market?

Axel Adler Jr laid out what the triggers would be for a Bitcoin trend reversal. The first trigger was the Bitcoin supply in profit. It had peaked at 19 million BTC in October, to <13.5 million BTC now.

The 30SMA and 90SMA of supply in profit had a 1.75 million BTC difference, a similar setup to 2022. Back then, an extended bearish phase had followed.

To prevent a similar outcome, BTC bulls must hold prices at the current range to keep the supply in profit above the 30SMA.

The analyst pointed out that this 1.75 million BTC gap was reducing by 28k BTC per day. If these dynamics persist, a bullish cross is projected for late February/early March.

It must be noted that this cross forecast would be valid only so long as Bitcoin prices hold above $75k-$80k in January.

Examining the Bitcoin price action similarities across cycles

In 2021, the weekly structure of Bitcoin shifted bearishly as the price fell below the moving averages to signal a long-term trend shift. A bounce to the 50-week MA was seen before the bear market took hold.

A similar scenario was brewing once again. A weekly bearish structure shift followed by a drop below the weekly moving averages. It appears likely that we will see a price bounce to the $101k-$103k resistance zone.

Thereafter, the bear market would likely take hold, especially if BTC falls and stays below $75k in January.

Final Thoughts

  • The multi-month elevated long/short ratio was an anomaly that suggested traders were positioning for a breakout, but were met with no success.
  • If Bitcoin is trading above the $75k-$80k range in January, there is a chance that the volatility was a violent reset of the larger bull cycle.

Perguntas relacionadas

QWhat does an elevated Bitcoin Long/Short Ratio above that of altcoins typically signal, and why has this pattern been significant recently?

AAn elevated Bitcoin Long/Short Ratio above that of altcoins has historically been a perfect buy signal for Bitcoin. However, this reliable pattern has been broken for the first time over the past few months, as the anticipated buying opportunity did not translate into profits.

QAccording to Axel Adler Jr, what is the first trigger for a Bitcoin trend reversal and what is its current status?

AThe first trigger for a Bitcoin trend reversal, according to Axel Adler Jr, is the Bitcoin supply in profit. It peaked at 19 million BTC in October but has since fallen to under 13.5 million BTC.

QWhat specific condition must Bitcoin bulls meet to prevent an extended bearish phase similar to 2022?

ATo prevent an extended bearish phase similar to 2022, Bitcoin bulls must hold prices at the current range to keep the supply in profit above the 30-day Simple Moving Average (30SMA).

QWhat price level must Bitcoin hold in January for the projected bullish cross in late February/early March to remain valid?

AFor the projected bullish cross to remain valid, Bitcoin must hold a price above the $75k-$80k range in January.

QBased on historical cycle similarities, what price bounce is likely to occur before a potential bear market takes hold?

ABased on historical cycle similarities, a price bounce to the $101k-$103k resistance zone is likely to occur before a potential bear market takes hold, especially if BTC falls and stays below $75k in January.

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