Author: Anthony J. Pompliano, Founder & CEO of ProCap Financial
Compiled by: Saoirse, Foresight News
Over the past year, Bitcoin has disappointed many investors. This highly watched digital asset has retreated over 50% from its all-time high of $125,000. The good news is, the bear market is most likely over, and we are at the beginning of a new bull cycle.
The following five charts will give you reason to be optimistic about Bitcoin's potential returns over the next 18-24 months.
First, Quinten Francois illustrates the correlation between Bitcoin mining electricity costs and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Historical trends clearly show that these two tend to bottom out simultaneously.
This Bitcoin weekly chart combines the mining electricity cost band (purple) with the RSI indicator, showing three instances where price retested the cost band while RSI bottomed in 2019, 2022, and 2026. Historically, this signal has often preceded bull market runs.
If history repeats itself, this is a strong signal for the start of a bull market.
Second, Will Clemente points out that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has recently hit a record high. This is significant, as bets on currency devaluation are coming back into vogue, influenced by Scott Bessent's recent pledge for expanded government fiscal spending.
This Glassnode chart shows the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold. In 2026, their correlation surged to historically high levels, indicating their price movements are currently highly synchronized, both being treated as hedges against monetary debasement.
I always repeat the classic view in the Bitcoin space: Bitcoin has no price ceiling because the US dollar has no value floor. US national debt has exceeded $40 trillion, and the government continues to recklessly erode the dollar's purchasing power. Any rational thinker can see this trend of unrestrained spending is set to continue.
Third, historically, Bitcoin's price trajectory has tracked the growth of the broad money supply (M2). Recently, however, a significant divergence has emerged: M2 continues to expand while Bitcoin's price has fallen. Many have abandoned this indicator as a result, but such large divergences have occurred multiple times in the past. And each time the gap has closed, it was Bitcoin's price catching up to the upside, not M2 growth decelerating.
This weekly chart compares Bitcoin (green) with M2 money supply (orange). It shows two periods of price divergence: after the 2022 crash, price caught up as M2 rose, and in 2026 price has again lagged behind money supply growth. Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin will subsequently close this gap by moving higher.
Fourth, I rarely rely on drawing lines on charts alone to predict portfolio moves, but this analysis from R89 Capital is compelling. Bitcoin appears to be bouncing from the bottom of a key consolidation range, suggesting potential price appreciation in the coming weeks and months.
This is a Bitcoin 4-hour chart from R89 Capital, showing price forming an ascending channel pattern. The firm views this as a bullish signal, anticipating a move towards $90,000.
Finally, the core truth of investing in Bitcoin: long-term holding is far more effective than frequent timing of the market. Jeff John Robert shared a Bloomberg chart, writing: 'The investment logic for Bitcoin is now similar to that of the S&P 500: the vast majority of returns come from a handful of big up days. Selling now and missing those windows would be devastating. This Bloomberg chart compares Bitcoin's annualized returns, including vs. excluding the ten best-performing days.'
This chart compares Bitcoin's full annualized returns with returns after removing the ten best trading days of each year. It illustrates that most of Bitcoin's gains come from a small number of significant rally days, and frequent trading attempts easily miss these crucial periods.
The reasoning is actually quite simple. This Bitcoin bear market has been shorter and shallower than previous cycles. Don't dwell on the past; a new bull market is already here. Bitcoin will appreciate significantly from current levels. Volatility will be extreme, and such swings aren't suitable for the faint of heart. However, those who understand Bitcoin and can maintain conviction through the turbulence are likely to be handsomely rewarded.
