Crypto market ‘isn’t scared enough’ to call a bottom yet: Santiment

cointelegraphPublicado em 2025-12-21Última atualização em 2025-12-21

Resumo

According to Santiment founder Maksim Balashevich, the crypto market has not yet shown sufficient fear on social media to confirm a bottom, suggesting Bitcoin could still drop to around $75,000. He noted that widespread optimism about a near-term reversal contradicts typical bottom formation sentiment. Despite this outlook, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has been in "Extreme Fear" territory since mid-December. Other analysts offer mixed predictions, with Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer warning of a potential decline to $65,000 in 2026, while Bitwise’s Matt Hougan remains bullish. Market indicators show conflicting signals, including risk-off positioning among traders.

Crypto traders have not yet shown enough fear on social media to confirm a market bottom, according to a crypto analyst who suggested Bitcoin could still slide to around $75,000.

“It looks very tempting to come even closer to it,” crypto market sentiment platform Santiment founder, Maksim Balashevich, said on a video published to YouTube on Friday.

A move to that level would represent an approximate 14.77% drop from Bitcoin’s (BTC) current price of $88,350, according to CoinMarketCap.

*Bitcoin is up 1.81% over the past 30 days. Source:* *CoinMarketCap*

Balashevich explained that his hesitation comes from observing significant optimism online that the downtrend will reverse in the near term, which he said is not usually the case when a true market bottom is forming.

“The crowd isn't scared enough for a bottom,” Santiment said in a report on the same day.

Overly optimistic comments are “not what I want to see,” says Balashevich

“In one particular crowd-dominated or retail-dominated channel, they’re mostly discussing Bank of Japan cut rates, and bears got caught, and now we’ll continue up from here,” he said.

“These kinds of statements are not what I want to see,” he said, adding that if the circumstances were different, he would be “very confident” in calling a market bottom.

Japan’s central bank pushed interest rates to a 30-year high of 0.75% on Friday, a move that has previously been associated with roughly 20% corrections in Bitcoin.

However, Balashevich said a move down to this price level would potentially provide a “very good setup” for traders.

On Thursday, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro research, said that Bitcoin could take a “year off” in 2026, with the price potentially falling to around $65,000.

Other analysts, such as Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, are forecasting 2026 to be an “up year” for Bitcoin.

Crypto market indicators conflict with Balashevich’s outlook

While Balashevich is not convinced that the market has yet reached its bottom, crypto market indicators suggest otherwise.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, has been lingering in “Extreme Fear” territory since Dec. 14. On Sunday, the Index posted an “Extreme Fear” score of 20.

Related: Bitcoin institutional buys flip new supply for the first time in 6 weeks

Other indicators are suggesting risk-off positioning among crypto traders.

The Altcoin Season Index, which measures the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over the past 90 days, posted a “Bitcoin Season” reading of 17 out of 100 on Saturday.

Magazine: Big questions: Would Bitcoin survive a 10-year power outage?

Criptomoedas em alta

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wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT

Velodrome FinanceVELODROME

BrevisBREV

ZRX（0X）ZRX

PancakeSwapCAKE

Perguntas relacionadas

QAccording to Santiment, why hasn't the crypto market bottomed out yet?

ABecause crypto traders have not shown enough fear on social media, and there is significant optimism that the downtrend will reverse, which is not typical when a true market bottom is forming.

QWhat price level does Santiment's founder suggest Bitcoin could potentially drop to?

ABitcoin could still slide to around $75,000, which would represent an approximate 14.77% drop from its current price of $88,350.

QWhat event does Balashevich mention as being discussed optimistically by retail traders, and why is he concerned?

ARetail traders are optimistically discussing the Bank of Japan's rate cut, believing the market will continue upward. Balashevich is concerned because such optimism is not what he wants to see for a market bottom confirmation.

QWhat does the Crypto Fear & Greed Index indicate about current market sentiment?

AThe Crypto Fear & Greed Index has been in 'Extreme Fear' territory since December 14, with a score of 20 on Sunday, indicating high fear among traders.

QWhat conflicting indicator is mentioned regarding Balashevich's outlook on the market bottom?

AThe Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows 'Extreme Fear,' which conflicts with Balashevich's view that there isn't enough fear to call a bottom, as extreme fear typically aligns with potential market bottoms.

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