Bitwise Names Three Mistakes Investors Make When Assessing the Cryptocurrency Market

cryptonews.ruPublicado em 2026-08-19Última atualização em 2026-08-19

Resumo

Bitwise's chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, identifies three common mistakes investors make when evaluating the cryptocurrency market, all stemming from a disconnect between its current perception and potential evolution. First, investors often view crypto applications like Uniswap or Aave solely through the lens of the $2 trillion crypto market. However, with the tokenization of traditional assets (like $150 trillion in equities and $350 trillion in bonds), the potential market for these platforms could become 100 times larger. Second, there's an underestimation of crypto-native companies. Despite entry by major financial firms (e.g., PayPal in stablecoins, Fidelity in custody), native players like Tether, Circle, and Coinbase retain dominant market shares due to speed, focus, and established user bases (though exceptions like BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF success exist). Third, future blockchain transaction volumes are underestimated. Tokenized securities could trade 24/7, not just 33 hours per week, and the rise of AI agents managing portfolios could increase transaction activity by 50-100 times. Hougan concludes that investors assess the sector based on its present state while the underlying infrastructure is rapidly changing through tokenization, expanding use cases, and increased operational scale. This gap between current perception and future potential creates significant investment opportunities.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, named three common mistakes he believes investors make when assessing the cryptocurrency market. He thinks the main issue is the gap between the current perception of the industry and its potential changes.

Crypto Applications Are Not Just About Cryptocurrencies

According to Hougan, investors often evaluate applications like Uniswap, Hyperliquid, and Aave solely through the lens of the size of the cryptocurrency market, which is currently estimated at about $2 trillion.

However, the proliferation of tokenization can significantly expand the market available to such applications. Hougan noted that the aggregate value of stocks is about $150 trillion, and bonds about $350 trillion. If these assets were tokenized, decentralized applications could work not only with cryptocurrencies but also with traditional financial instruments.

"People see them as purely crypto applications—just like they once thought Amazon was just a bookstore," Hougan remarked.

By his estimate, the potential market for such platforms could be about 100 times larger than the cryptocurrency market itself.

Crypto-Native Companies Maintain an Advantage Over Traditional Players

Hougan named underestimation of crypto-native companies in the face of large financial institutions entering the industry as the second mistake. He gave the stablecoin market as an example. After launching its own product in 2023, PayPal failed to capture a significant market share. Currently, according to Hougan, Tether and Circle control about 88% of the market, while PayPal's share is about 1%.

A similar situation has developed in the cryptocurrency custody market. Fidelity launched its service back in 2019, yet the largest crypto custodian in the US remains Coinbase.

Hougan also mentioned CME and Bakkt. According to him, crypto-native companies gain an advantage through faster product releases, focus on the cryptocurrency market, and an already established user base.

However, he noted there are exceptions. For example, BlackRock ranks first among spot Bitcoin ETF providers.

Transaction Volume Could Grow Dozens of Times

According to Hougan, the third mistake relates to assessing future transactional activity on blockchains. Currently, the U.S. stock market operates for 33 hours a week—from Monday to Friday during trading sessions. With the tokenization of stocks, trading could take place around the clock and without days off—168 hours a week.

Hougan says this does not mean an automatic fivefold increase in trading volume. However, the availability of 24/7 trading will create conditions for increased activity.

He named the development of AI agents as an additional factor. They will be able to monitor portfolios and execute trades on behalf of users 24/7.

"I can imagine growth of 50 or 100 times," Hougan stated regarding the potential increase in stock transaction volume.

In his opinion, a similar effect could manifest in payments if a significant portion of operations in the future is performed by AI agents.

Hougan believes all three mistakes are connected to one problem: investors assess the cryptocurrency industry based on its current state, while the infrastructure itself continues to change rapidly.

In particular, he highlights the development of tokenization, the expansion of the application scope of crypto applications, and the growth in the number of transactions. In his view, it is precisely the difference between the current perception of the market and its possible future state that creates investment opportunities.

Earlier, Hougan stated that the crypto market is transitioning to a model where the value of assets will increasingly depend on the revenue generated by the corresponding protocols.

Perguntas relacionadas

QAccording to Matt Hougan from Bitwise, what is the main problem investors face when evaluating the cryptocurrency market?

AThe main problem is the gap between the current perception of the industry and its potential for significant change.

QWhat is the first common mistake investors make, and how does tokenization change the potential market size for applications like Uniswap?

AThe first mistake is viewing applications like Uniswap solely through the lens of the $2 trillion crypto market. Tokenization of traditional assets (stocks and bonds worth ~$500 trillion) could expand their potential market by about 100 times.

QWhy do crypto-native companies often maintain an advantage over large traditional financial institutions entering the space, according to Hougan?

ACrypto-native companies have advantages like faster product releases, a dedicated focus on the crypto market, and an established user base, as seen in the dominance of Tether, Circle, and Coinbase over entrants like PayPal and Fidelity.

QWhat two factors does Hougan cite as reasons why transaction volume on blockchains could potentially increase by 50-100 times?

AThe factors are: 1) The shift to 24/7 trading if assets like stocks are tokenized, compared to the current 33-hour trading week, and 2) The future activity of AI agents that can monitor and trade portfolios continuously.

QWhat overarching theme connects the three investment mistakes identified by Matt Hougan?

AAll three mistakes stem from investors evaluating the crypto industry based on its current, static state, while the underlying infrastructure is rapidly evolving through tokenization, broader application use, and increased transaction potential, creating an investment opportunity gap.

Leituras Relacionadas

China Pinches the Vital Point of CPO

The article "China Grips the Achilles' Heel of CPO" details how China holds a strategic position in the global indium phosphide (InP) supply chain, a critical material for high-speed optical modules and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology used in AI data centers. China controls over 70% of global indium reserves and produces more than half of the world's primary indium, primarily as a by-product of zinc/tin smelting. It further refines 70-80% of the globe's refined indium. This upstream dominance is compounded by the fact that key InP wafer producer AXT operates its primary production through its Chinese subsidiary, Beijing Tongmei. Adding to this leverage are China's export controls, first on InP products and later extending to high-purity indium (6N+ grade). These restrictions have created supply bottlenecks and uncertainty, straining foreign manufacturers like Japan's Sumitomo and Dowa, who rely heavily on Chinese materials. The resulting shortage has led to intense demand, with industry figures like Lumentum's CEO warning of severe constraints and companies like Coherent seeking direct assurances from China. This situation benefits Chinese InP supply chain companies. Firms like Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium (a leading domestic InP wafer producer) and Zhuzhou Keneng (high-purity indium) report surging domestic revenues and orders. They are also making progress in high-end product validation and capacity expansion. However, challenges remain, including lengthy customer qualification cycles and a significant capacity gap compared to foreign leaders. The article frames the current AI-driven demand surge as a pivotal moment for China's InP industry. It references a historical lesson where China, despite controlling indium resources, once ceded value-add and pricing power to Japanese processors. The current scenario is seen as an opportunity to leverage upstream resource control to develop advanced manufacturing capabilities and secure greater influence in the global semiconductor materials market.

marsbitHá 1m

China Pinches the Vital Point of CPO

marsbitHá 1m

Tom Li Suggests Managing Robots Through Smart Contracts

Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, advocates for using Ethereum blockchain and smart contracts to verify and control the actions of AI-powered robots, especially as their physical capabilities begin to surpass human limits. He cites a new Chinese humanoid robot as an example. Lee sees no threat in recent Stanford research showing AI models converging toward a "single intelligence," arguing this trend increases blockchain's relevance for ensuring transparency and control. He agrees with BlackRock's view on the growing convergence of AI and crypto but believes Ethereum will be the primary platform for AI and robotics. Lee notes the rising ETH/BTC ratio, expecting new catalysts from asset tokenization by major US financial firms and the development of AI agents. This contrasts with Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin's previously expressed concerns about uncontrolled advanced AI.

cryptonews.ruHá 48m

Tom Li Suggests Managing Robots Through Smart Contracts

cryptonews.ruHá 48m

Cash App Adds XRP, SOL, and ETH via Moonpay for 59 Million Users

Cash App has integrated Cash App Pay into the MoonPay system, allowing eligible U.S. users to purchase XRP, Solana (SOL), Ether (ETH), and USDT directly from their Cash App balance. This integration is notable as Block, Cash App's parent company, has never directly listed these tokens within its own app; MoonPay handles the purchases and can send the assets to a user's external wallet of choice. This move effectively provides Cash App's 59 million active users access to a broader range of cryptocurrencies without the app needing to build its own listing and custody infrastructure for each asset. Cash App Pay becomes the third major payment method on MoonPay, joining PayPal and Venmo. After purchase, tokens can be sent to various external wallets, including Trust Wallet, MetaMask, and Ledger. MoonPay's co-founder noted the integration is a market expansion, giving tens of millions of users instant access to the digital asset ecosystem from a trusted app they already use. The integration also marks another step in expanding XRP's presence in mainstream financial apps in 2026, following earlier additions to platforms like SoFi and Rakuten Wallet. This development occurs after Block faced regulatory scrutiny, including a $40 million fine from New York regulators for past shortcomings in transaction monitoring within Cash App.

cryptonews.ruHá 48m

Cash App Adds XRP, SOL, and ETH via Moonpay for 59 Million Users

cryptonews.ruHá 48m

Russian Suspected of Stealing Cryptocurrency from Cold Wallet Worth Almost 10 Million Rubles

Russian authorities are investigating a suspect accused of stealing nearly 10 million rubles worth of cryptocurrency from a cold wallet. According to investigators, the wallet belonged to an unnamed commercial company executive's assistant. In March, the suspect allegedly gained access to the victim's wallet by "an unidentified method" and transferred the digital assets to another address. During a search of the suspect's home, police seized three computers and three mobile phones for forensic examination, as they may contain important digital evidence. The case is being investigated as grand larceny under the Russian Criminal Code, carrying a potential sentence of up to ten years in prison. Police are also checking the suspect's possible involvement in other cryptocurrency thefts and identifying potential accomplices. The article notes that while cold wallets (hardware wallets storing private keys offline) are considered more secure against remote hacking, they remain vulnerable if a perpetrator gains physical or direct access to the keys. In a related case earlier in June, a court in Tomsk sentenced two men to 8 and 9.5 years in a strict-regime colony for a robbery and cryptocurrency theft. They forced an acquaintance at knifepoint to log into a crypto exchange account and transfer over 85 bitcoins, valued at approximately $5.1 million at the time.

cryptonews.ruHá 50m

Russian Suspected of Stealing Cryptocurrency from Cold Wallet Worth Almost 10 Million Rubles

cryptonews.ruHá 50m

Grayscale Submits Fourth Amendment to Agreement for Zcash Trust, Whose Shares Will Be Listed on the NYSE Arca

Grayscale has submitted a fourth amendment to its S-3 registration form for the Grayscale Zcash Trust, a key step toward converting it into a U.S. exchange-traded fund (ETF) listed on NYSE Arca under the ticker ZCSH. This would be the first U.S. ETF providing regulated stock market access to the privacy-focused cryptocurrency ZEC ($ZEC). The amendment details the creation and redemption of shares, primarily through cash, though authorized participants can create shares in-kind by depositing ZEC. The trust is sponsored by Grayscale Investments, with Coinbase as the prime broker and custodian, and Bank of New York Mellon as administrator. The filing also notes non-binding discussions where Digital Currency Group's DCG International Investments could acquire shares by contributing 200,000 ZEC. A ZEC ETF is seen as a breakthrough due to regulatory caution around privacy-enhancing tokens. Following the filing, ZEC's price rose over 9% in 24 hours. Demand for the existing trust product has grown, with its average daily trading volume doubling from March to April, and shielded ZEC balances reaching a record ~30% of the circulating supply. Despite this momentum, Zcash has faced challenges in 2026, including a vulnerability discovered in its shielded Orchard pool that briefly caused its price to drop significantly. Developers quickly patched the issue. A regulated ETF would offer traditional investors exposure to this dual-faceted privacy asset.

cryptonews.ruHá 53m

Grayscale Submits Fourth Amendment to Agreement for Zcash Trust, Whose Shares Will Be Listed on the NYSE Arca

cryptonews.ruHá 53m

Trading

Spot
活动图片

Categorias popularesright-arrow

Etiquetas Popularesright-arrow