Author: Deep Tide TechFlow
US Stocks: Largest Single-Day Gain in Recent Times, First Real Crack in the War Narrative
On Tuesday, Wall Street marked the end of a brutal Q1 with a long-awaited surge.
The Dow closed up 1,125 points (+2.49%) at 46,341, marking its largest single-day gain this year. The S&P 500 soared 2.91% to 6,528, and the Nasdaq surged 3.83% to 21,590, both recording their best single-day performance since May. The VIX fear index plummeted 17.51% to 25.25, providing the first relief valve after six consecutive weeks of extreme panic.
The trigger for all this came from two almost simultaneous pieces of news.
The first: The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump had signaled to his aides—even if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened—he is willing to end military operations against Iran. This quietly dismantled half of the equation that "Strait reopening = precondition for war ending." The second: Iranian President Pezeshkian publicly stated that Iran has "the necessary willingness to end this war," but on the condition of obtaining "guarantees against future aggression." Iranian state media later confirmed this statement.
The market's reaction to the combined news was a reflexive surge.
The technology sector was the biggest beneficiary of this rebound and the target of the most aggressive buying. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) surged over 4% for the day, Nvidia jumped 5.6%, Meta soared 6.64%, and Microsoft rose 3.1%. On Semiconductor led the S&P 500 with a gain of over 10%, driven by the logic chain: Ceasefire expectations → Oil price decline → Inflation cooling → Fed rate cut narrative revival → High-valuation tech stocks regain breathing room. This logic chain, broken by the war over the past month, was temporarily reconnected on Tuesday.
The travel and consumer sectors experienced explosive relief rallies. United Airlines and Carnival Corp each rose about 8%, Royal Caribbean gained about 5%—these stocks were among the worst victims in Q1, and their deep declines made their rebounds the most elastic. Consumer confidence data added to the positive sentiment: The March Consumer Confidence Index came in at 91.8, above the Dow Jones consensus expectation of 87.5, showing a slight improvement against the trend.
Market breadth was excellent, with about 80% of S&P 500 components closing higher on Tuesday. This was not a structurally divided sectoral rebound but a comprehensive return of risk appetite.
However, one exception stood out conspicuously: Constellation Energy fell over 7%, becoming the biggest drag on the S&P for the day—its CEO stated during Investor Day that new data center power supply agreements were "not yet ready to be announced," greatly disappointing the market.
Nike reported Q3 earnings after the close: EPS of $0.35, beating Wall Street's expectation of $0.31; revenue of $11.28 billion, also exceeding the expected $11.24 billion.
But what truly surprised analysts was the performance in China. EBIT in China reached $467 million, nearly 1.74 times the market expectation of $270 million, marking an improvement after seven consecutive quarters of decline. Since CEO Elliot Hill's return in October 2024, he has been labeled by outsiders as "needing time." This earnings report gave the market a reason to believe the turning point might be closer.
However, the midpoint of the full-year operating profit guidance (approximately $11.5) was slightly below the Wall Street consensus of $11.73. The war's impact on supply chains—the detour costs via Vietnam and India around the Hormuz Strait—remained a lingering shadow in management's remarks. Nike's story isn't over yet, but tonight offers a bit more hope than yesterday.
Gold and Oil: WTI Rarely Falls, Brent Surges Against Trend Due to Tanker Attack
Tuesday's crude oil market saw a puzzling divergence.
WTI crude fell 1.46% to $101.38 per barrel, declining on ceasefire expectations. But Brent crude surged 4.94%, closing at $118.35, hitting a new high since June 2022—driven by a Bloomberg report that Iran attacked a Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai waters. The divergence between WTI falling and Brent surging is itself the most accurate reflection of the current market: ceasefire expectations and actual hostilities coexist simultaneously, tearing the market between two narratives.
Gold rose modestly on ceasefire expectations. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) gained over 4%. With inflation expectations slightly down and the rate cut narrative reviving slightly, gold found renewed logical support for going long. The price held in the $4,600 to $4,650 per ounce range, still about 17% below the late January all-time high of $5,600, but the direction has shifted from a sharp fall to stabilization.
Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Rises About 2%, Coinbase Surges Over 6% in a Day
According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin rose about 2% with the broader market on Tuesday, trading around $67,800.
Coinbase surged over 6%, and Robinhood rose 5%. This联动 (linkage) within the crypto ecosystem clearly reflects one thing: Ceasefire expectations → Oil price stability → Reduced inflationary pressure → Revival of Fed rate cut narrative → Increased liquidity easing expectations → Bitcoin, as a "liquidity-sensitive asset," gets a boost. This logic chain is the exact opposite of the one broken by the war in recent weeks.
Worth long-term attention is that Google Quantum AI simultaneously released a white paper on Tuesday, warning that existing crypto wallets could be cracked in less than 10 minutes under quantum computing power. This news was almost entirely ignored amid the day's surge狂欢 (carnival)—but it is a very slow, very long-range bullet worth putting on the long-term watchlist.
Bitcoin is still down about 46% from its October high of around $126,000, with a quarterly drop of over 30%. Tuesday's rebound looks more like an oversold repair than a trend reversal.
Q1 Report Card: This Quarter Officially Defined by War
With the close on March 31, the bill for Q1 2026 is officially locked in:
Dow: Down 8% for the month, down 6% for the quarter, both the worst since September 2022. Ten consecutive months of positive monthly returns ended this quarter.
S&P 500: Down about 6% for the quarter, down 5.1% for the month; fell for five consecutive weeks, the longest weekly losing streak since 2022; deviated more than 8% from its late January all-time high.
Nasdaq: Down 7% for the quarter, down 4.8% for the month, still in correction territory (down over 10%).
The root of all this lies in one timeline: On February 28, the US-Israel joint operation "Epic Rage" was launched, drawing Iran into the war. In the subsequent 30 trading days, the Strait of Hormuz was nearly blockaded, oil prices rose from $57 to over $100, and Fed rate cut expectations plummeted from 95% to almost zero. A quarter originally carrying AI fervor and rate cut hopes was rewritten by war into another form.
Today is April 1, April Fool's Day.
If this rebound is real, more data will confirm it in the coming week. If it vanishes like every previous "glimmer of ceasefire," the market is already seasoned enough not to price every Trump post as the final outcome.
The real endgame requires one thing: Ships moving again in the Strait of Hormuz.
